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BCS Faces Challenge From 21 Economists and Lawyers

A group of 21 economics and law professors has submitted a letter to the Department of Justice asking it to investigate the BCS on antitrust grounds. The Wall Street Journal got an advance copy of the letter and published a summary of it this morning.

If you've heard any anti-BCS arguments before, this missive will largely be redundant. It goes over how the BCS is a cartel, it favors some schools over others, it creates a barrier against non-automatic qualifying teams, its payouts don't correspond with consumer appeal, etc. It's a very well written argument against the institution.

It's not perfect, though. It compares the BCS against the old bowl system when convenient, and it compares it against a playoff when convenient. I wasn't 100 percent sure which of those two these guys prefer until the conclusion. It also ignores the fact that—and I can't believe I'm parroting a Bill Hancock talking point here—the BCS has indeed increased access to the big money bowls.

The last non-power team to play in the Sugar Bowl was Air Force in the 1971 game. For the Orange Bowl, it was Santa Clara in the 1950 game (depending on how "major" you believe Florida State was in 1979-80). For the Rose Bowl, and I'm a little foggy on the game's history this far back, I believe it was Washington & Jefferson in 1922. After the Fiesta Bowl dropped its WAC affiliation in 1978, it took a grand total of one non-power team (Louisville in the 1991 game) prior to the advent of the BCS.

It also takes a doozy of an assumption when it says, "On-the-field performance, which drives market preferences..." on the second page. Take a look at the 2010 attendance figures. The No. 5 team is Texas, who failed to make a bowl. No. 1 was easily Michigan, who barely made a bowl and fired its coach. Want to talk about percent capacity instead because of differing stadium size? TCU, who went undefeated on the way to the Rose Bowl, couldn't manage to average a sell out in its 44,000-seat stadium. In 2001, season favorite and eventual national champion Miami averaged 65.21 percent capacity.

Don't get me wrong, I wish these guys all the luck in the world as they push for a playoff. However, I don't think they can get there via this route. 

At worst, they'll see the BCS wiped away and get a return to the old bowl system. Instead of the BCS agreements centralizing the Big Six tie-ins with the major bowls, those bowls would go back to doing those tie-ins individually. Soon-to-be perennial MWC champ Boise State would seldom get to go to anything better than the Las Vegas Bowl in that case. That would certainly be a step backwards for the non-AQ leagues, no?

At best I can see them getting an overhaul of the BCS selection methods, which is long overdue anyway. No conference champion should get an automatic bid, the Coaches' Poll should be kicked out, the Harris Poll needs far better oversight (if a human poll is even necessary), and it needs to include computer polls that are all statistically valid.

Of course, nothing ever came of the congressional hearings about the BCS. Perhaps going to the DOJ directly will be more effective, but I'm not holding my breath.

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not always

There are some that people feel overrate the non-BCS.

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by Jeremy Mauss on Apr 13, 2025 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

i'm not sure that

ANY of the current BCS computer polls are statistically valid. And to be honest, I’m not sure that given the really small sample size and serious connectivity issues in 1-A CFB, that it’s even possible to construct a truly statistically system.

That said, I definitely agree with you that there’s serious room for improvement in the computer polls. And that the human polls (especially the coaches’) are a joke.

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by MrPacTen on Apr 13, 2025 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

I completley disagree about

conference champions not getting automatic bcs bids. I understand your logic (why should a bad acc or big east team get a bid), but at the same time that’s the ONLY factor that’s actually up to the team. Everything else is up to voters, computers, or bowl barons. At this point, at large teams get passed up because of bids going to undeserving at large teams as much as undeserving conference champs.

People rip on college football because we’re the only sport without a playoff. If this were to happen, we’d be the only sport that doesn’t reward conference champs (I do realize that not all conference champs get bcs bids but eliminating auto bids isn’t the answer to that problem. If thats even a problem at all.)

by Mark Mandingo on Apr 13, 2025 1:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t think there should be any provisions for division/conference champions in sports. Why should the No. 9 team in the NBA Western Conference with an above .500 record miss the playoffs when the No. 8 team in the Eastern Conference is below .500? Why should the 7-9 Seahawks make the NFL Playoffs last year while the 10-6 Giants and 10-6 Bucs miss them?

Conferences and divisions are useful only to help teams minimize travel costs and to provide some kind of structure for regular season scheduling. Because there’s no guarantee any given division will be good, there should be no postseason reward for winning a division. Bring it home to this conference. Why should South Carolina get to play Auburn in the SEC Title Game last year when Arkansas and LSU had a better SEC record in the tougher division?

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by Year2 on Apr 13, 2025 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

If that's your line of thinking

then I don’t see how you would want a playoff. It looks to me like you would be for abolishing conferences, having a random schedule generator, and putting the two teams with the best winning percentage in a championship game.

How many 4,5, and 6 seeds have won the superbowl? A fair number. Playoffs aren’t about who deserves to be the champ. They’re about who wins a stretch of games against some of the better teams in the league. Everything about it is unfair in a sense. But that’s fine. I don’t want a playoff but I can see why people do. It would lend a little more legitimacy to the champion and unlike the bcs, you know what you have to do to get to the title game, namely win.

But you’re argument seems to be the worst of both worlds. You take out the importance of conference championships which hurts the regular season and you want to rely completely on people to sort it out. A depleted regular season and the frustration of having to rely on voters. Sorry, I just find your argument dicey.

by Mark Mandingo on Apr 13, 2025 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just want is an end to cupcake games. Get rid of the programs that don’t belong on the I-A level and make who’s left play their peers all season long. A 12-game regular season is a small enough sample size as it is. Making it even smaller with power teams playing Charleston Southern, UL-Monroe, and FIU is an awful way to do things.

As far as a tournament goes, all you have to do is keep the playoff small. The champions of the tough conferences would make it anyway with no automatic bid required, and you keep out the 2010 UConns and 2005 FSUs of the world.

Ultimately, playoffs have a fatal flaw in that anything can happen in one game. However, a playoff of worthy participants is the probably the fairest way to do a postseason.

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by Year2 on Apr 13, 2025 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's worth noting

that if you slice out the bottom half of 1-A and basically just keep the AQ’s, then even in an 8-team playoff (much less a 16-team playoff), you’ll generally just get one league champ who doesn’t belong a year… and it’s not THAT much of a big deal IMO. Once you start bringing in MWC, CUSA champs, much less WAC/MAC/Sun Belt, then it just gets ridiculous.

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by MrPacTen on Apr 13, 2025 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

i also

agree with you about the cupcake games. I would love to see an end to them, or at least every program playing no more than 1 a year.

Mr Pac Ten's Blog - 2007 2008 2009 2010

by MrPacTen on Apr 13, 2025 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah but

scheduling cupcakes is an unrelated issue to the conference AQ. You bring up 2005 FSU, 2 of their 3 non conference games in 2005 were Syracuse and Florida. They played the Citadel for the third. I know Syracuse was (and is) a joke at the time, but I don’t know if you can predict how good teams are gonna be when you play them.

Basketball and Football are apples and oranges so i know it’s folly to compare them, but one of the things that bothers me about college basketball is that nobody really cares who the conference champ is. The sec tourney champ isn’t the conference champ yet few casual fans know this. As a florida fan, does it even matter to you that florida was SEC champion? I would bet not. Kentucky went to the Final Four and won the SEC Tourney so in most people’s minds they’re probably the “champs”.

Either way, in late feb more people care about their seeding in the division to set up their tournament run than the race for conference champ. That obviously wouldn’t be the case if the auto bid was given to the regular season champ instead. I would hate to see the conference crown not matter in football.

As for cupcakes, I think we should stop counting IAA towards bowl eligibility. That’s the most realistic thing that could help a little. Their are plenty of IA cupcakes but its better to see Florida play FIU than the Citadel.

by Mark Mandingo on Apr 13, 2025 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah but

schedule cupcakes IS related to teh # of teams in 1-A. Throw out, say, the bottom 40 programs and suddenly you get fewer cupcake games, since you can only get one AA game per year. Which is along the lines of what he’s proposing.

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by MrPacTen on Apr 14, 2025 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

another reasonable option

is to change bowl eligibility rules even more. A 5-7 SEC team is still way better than a 8-4 Sun Belt team, not to mention the fact that the bowls would rather the SEC team and its many fans than the Sun Belt team and its five fans. Why not kill the .500 requirement altogether and let bowls take whoever the want? It’d cheapen the bowls further… but who really cares?

An SEC team having a horrible year might or might not get an invite, and a MAC team having a “good” year (sweeps MAC, goes 0-3 vs AQ’s, only one of which is even top 25) might or might not get an invite. Why should anyone have a problem with this?

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by MrPacTen on Apr 14, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those poor non-AQ conferences being forced into the BCS.

How dare the the AQ conference make the other conferences participate in the BCS. Oh, I’m sorry. What was that? The non-AQ conferences signed on to the BCS? That’s interesting.

I’ll go ahead and end the sarcasm there.

My argument is similar to the amateur-athlete-should-get-paid argument: no one is making these people do what they are doing. If a student athlete wants to get paid for his skills, then he can go somewhere else. (I’m struggling not to turn the sarcasm switch back on when I bring this up since it is the NFL that is the problem in that regard, not the NCAA).

If the non-AQ conference teams or any other team for that matter, be they a non-AQ conference team or an AQ conference team, want to start a playoff, my mottos is: Go for it. No one is stopping you. Not the BCS or Bill Hanckock, not Mike Slive or Jim Delaney, not congress or the DOJ. They should start a playoff and extend invites to all teams in Division 1A and then see who shows up. When they don’t show up, they can find them playing at the bowl games if the playoff advocates are wondering where they went.

by marktheshark on Apr 13, 2025 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

The reason they signed into the BCS is because there’s no alternative. The NCAA’s rule that forbids teams from participating in non-licensed postseason competition preserves the bowl system and prevents non-AQs from creating a rival postseason system.

Not signing the BCS contracts would only keep those leagues from having a chance to participate in those games. It would not allow them to create change.

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by Year2 on Apr 13, 2025 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

then

they should change that rule. It wouldn’t chagne the fact that no one would care about a non-AQ playoff.

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by MrPacTen on Apr 13, 2025 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Since the schools are what make up the NCAA, the non-AQ schools should vote to license another post season format. I’m sure the AQ schools won’t stop them.

by marktheshark on Apr 13, 2025 2:00 PM EDT reply actions  

The NCAA doesn’t work that way. It’s not an institution where every school gets one vote. Committees run the association, and those committees are by and large run by people from the AQ schools.

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by Year2 on Apr 13, 2025 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  


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