Last week: 7-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread
Season: 45-6 straight up, 27-15-1 against the spread
I'm rather pleased with myself on these picks so far, as I'm watching and analyzing more games than I ever have. I'm glad that the extra studying is helping me, because you can definitely mislead yourself with a flood of information. Of course, just saying this means I'm going 1-5 against the spread this week.
As always, the point spreads come from the Yahoo pick 'em game.
Ole Miss (-43) over New Mexico State 66-20
The Rebels will get back to scoring obscene amounts of points against a terrible, terrible team.
LSU (-13.5) over South Carolina
I would've taken the Tigers to cover this line in Columbia given how porous the Gamecock run defense is. It made Mizzou look like a good rushing team last week despite Drew Lock only throwing two passes (in 28 attempts) more than ten yards down the field. Now that it's in Baton Rouge, I am completely at peace. Of course, I—and everyone else playing—benefit from the venue change news coming too late for the pick 'em game's line to reflect it. Most lines on the game are now LSU -18.5 or -19. Even then, I think I'd still go LSU.
Georgia (-3) over Tennessee 30-20
The fact that this is a road game for the Bulldogs and also a real hangover spot after the Bama blowout gives me pause, not to mention how desperate Tennessee will be. That said, I'm really surprised at how mediocre UT's passing game is, and the pass is how the Tide hurt UGA the most. The Bulldog run defense will carry the day, and Nick Chubb will have a monster game.
Mississippi State (-30.5) over Troy 40-13
Troy isn't good, but MSU's defense has enough lapses that I think the Bulldogs won't cover. It won't be in doubt, but they won't cover.
Alabama (-16.5) over Arkansas 24-13
The Tide has been inconsistent, so I can see them having an off game after shellacking Georgia. The surprisingly efficient Razorback passing game might score enough points to keep the final margin under 17 as long as the team doesn't turn it over.
Florida (-5.5) over Missouri 16-6
The Gators could easily—EASILY—lay a gigantic reptilian egg in this game after the big win over Ole Miss. Mizzou has a good defensive line, and UF's offensive line still isn't something to be counted on. Will Grier is also still a redshirt freshman, and he won't look amazing like he has in his last five quarters consistently. Drew Lock is a true freshman, though, and Florida's defense eats up the dink and dunk stuff the Tigers ran against South Carolina last week. UF's defense should be more than enough even if the Gator offense sputters.