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SEC Out of Conference Scheduling

Each SEC team plays 4 out-of-conference (OoC) games, obvious I know, but all the other conferences consistently remark how all we play are cupcakes and for most teams that is true.  75% of OoC games for the teams are against cupcakes.  However, all the teams this year except for Ole Miss (Jax, Tulane, Fresno St, & UL-Laf) play at least one strong team (LSU two).  

I still agree with Steve Spurrier's statement that playing in the SEC is tough enough to justify the cupcakes and one strong OoC game.  But the question is how many of this year's 48 games does the SEC need to win to keep people from complaining too loudly? 

Star-divide

I figure at least 66% (32/48) have to be wins.  Below are my predictions for this year's OoC games.   

Bama: San Jose St, Penn St, @Duke, and Ga St, all wins

Ark: Tenn-Tech, Monroe, @Tex A&M, and UTEP, all wins

Aub: Ark St, Clemson, Monroe, and UT-Chat, 3 wins with possible loss to Clemson

LSU: UNC (neutral site), UWV, McNeese and Monroe, 3 wins with loss either to UNC or UWV

MSU: Memphis, Alcorn St, @Houston, UAB, 3 wins with loss coming at Houston

Ole Miss: Jax, @Tulane, Fresno St, UL-Laf, all wins

UF: Miami (OH), USF, App St, @FSU, all wins

UGA: Ul-Laf, @Colorado, Idaho St, GT, 3 wins with possible loss to GT

UK: @ Louisville, Akron, WKen, CharSo, 3 wins with possible loss to Louisville

USC: Southern Miss, Furman, Troy, @Clemson, 3 wins with possible loss to Clemson

UT: UT-Martin, Oregon, UAB, @Memphis, 3 wins with probable loss to Oregon

Vandy: Northwestern, @UConn, @EMich, Wake Forest, 2 wins with possible loss to NW and loss to WF

It is possible that the SEC could win a total of 37 (77%) of these games, especially if Clemson loses to both USC and Aub and Oregon is still recovering from its off-season drama.

 

Let me know what ya'll think.

A FanPost gives the opinion of the fan who writes it and that fan only. That doesn't give the opinion more or less weight than any other opinion on this blog, but the post does not necessarily reflect the view of TSK's writers.

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Bama should be embarrassed

Not only scheduling GaSt. but then moving the game up since that week spent on GaSt is so crucial to ensure planning and practicing to beat a team that’s NEVER PLAYED FOOTBALL before. Just pathetic. Absolutely pathetic.

by LSUJOSHUA on Jul 13, 2025 2:57 PM EDT reply actions  

They were gracious enough

to play at Duke and play host to both San Jose State and Joe Pa’s Nittany Lions.

by brandond03 on Jul 13, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

really?

With PSU on the schedule, plus UF at home and Arky/ LSU on the road…who exactly would you want us to schedule…

"You stay bought into it when you see your opponent sucking air and physically failing and you're still fit and ready and you know you own his ass."- Corey Reamer speaking about Coach Cochran

by bammer on Jul 14, 2025 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

louisiana tech maybe?

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. Glory favors the bold. Chance favors the prepared mind. Luck, well i have that too. University of Utah goes to the Pac-12 conference in 2011. I expect them to compete immediately for the conference CG. I still will always follow the Mountain West Conference. Brock Lesnar will defeat Cain Velasquez and face the winner of Junior Dos Santos vs Roy Nelson where he will defeat JDS and stake his claim as pound for pound champion.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Jul 14, 2025 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cupcakes.

Man, those OoC schedules look weak! That is, until, you put them in the context of the full SEC schedule…

MileHighReport.com member since 02/06/07, promoted to "Position Coach" (i.e. new staff writer) on 02/16/10!

by ejruiz on Jul 13, 2025 5:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree

SEC in conference play in and of itself makes the overall schedules plenty tough. If you can get some teams to come take their beating and $300k-plus and go home I can’t say that I would blame them or a team from the SEC scheduling the game.

by brandond03 on Jul 13, 2025 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scheduling cupcakes is getting expensive.

I know USC is having to pay close to $1M for their upcoming cupcakes.

Dum spiro spero - "While I breathe, I hope"
State motto of South Carolina

by The Feathered Warrior on Jul 13, 2025 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is perception that drives this...

but I agree with it because the perception that the SEC is both the strongest and most competitive conference is built on real solid numbers: SEC recruiting dominance. This trumps any other argument—head to head conference record, bowl match-up record, gut feeling, ect. Until this trend changes, the perception will continue—really should continue and would not be fair if it stopped. For example, going by ESPN 150 numbers, adding the 2011 verbals to date and then back to the 2006 signed recruits: 1)(SEC) Fl.=64, Ga.=45, LSU=39, Ala.=35, Aub.=21, Tenn.=20, SC=19, Miss=10, Ark=8, Miss St.=6, Kent=4, Vand=1;
  
2)(Big-12) Tex=57, Okl.=33, A&M=10, Okl. St.= 8, Neb.=5, Col.=5, Miss.=3, Baylor=3, K St.=1, 0 for Tex Tech, Iowa St., and Kansas;

3)(Pac-10) SC=46, UCLA=17, Ore=9, Cal=7, Stand=7, Ariz=4, Ariz St.=3, Wash=4, Ore St.=0, Wash St=0;
 
4)(Big-10) Ohio St.=32, Mich=22, Penn St.=17, Illin.=8, Wisc=6, Iowa=5, Mich St.=5, Minn=3, 0 for Ind., Purdue, and NU;
 
5)(ACC) Mia=35, Fl. St.=32, Clem=28, NC=17, Maryland=7, Vir Tech=6, GT=3, Vir=3, NC St.=3, WF=1, BC=0, Duke=0
  
The SEC goes six deep for teams with at least 20 and the bottom half of the conference is competitive if not equal to the top half of the other respective conferences—of course taking out teams at the top (Tex, Okl, SC, Ohio St., Mia, Fl. St., and Clemson) that are so far ahead of the rest; the ACC and Big 10 are more balanced at the top but fall far behind in the bottom half. The Pac-10 and Big-12 numbers are eye opening in showing the gap between the two top teams and the rest of the conference. Texas’ schedule for example is ridiculous— http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teams/schedule?teamId=251— NC games: Rice, Fl. Atlantic, and Wyoming plus the conference schedule—UCLA does help a little. Not a lot of ESPN 150 players on the opposing teams—not even close to any SEC team’s schedule—cupcakes or not. If they don’t go undefeated, it certainly has to be a disappointment; if they lose two, then people should be very angry. SC schedule is no different— http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/usc-m-footbl-sched.html— not a lot of ESPN 150 players on those opposing teams either. I know that having these players does not guarantee victory—we (LSU) almost and probably should have lost to Troy, Alabama lost to Utah, SC has the one hiccup every year, and Texas lost to Kansas St. recently, etc.—but again the perception has strong legs with real recruiting numbers.

by mjtig on Jul 15, 2025 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

This only true...

if you put stock in the recruiting numbers.

The ESPN 150 is a joke.

It doesn’t matter how many football games the SEC wins. We will always look down on you.

by devidee33 on Jul 16, 2025 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

What do you go by to determine SOS for a team?

I see the quote above, but you show no allegiance to a team (We?) or conference (We?)—just a SEC hater? Every team that has played in the national championship game going back to 06 has been in the top ten of The ESPN 150 class rankings over that time frame. Texas, Oklahoma, and USC have a lot more talent going by ESPN numbers going back to 06 and they have repectively dominatied their conferences for a decade—where is the joke? You say it is a joke, but this is just your opinion: where is your proof it is a joke. You honestly are saying you would not want these players on your team if your team (?) could get them. Is there another recruiting service you put more faith in? If you do not go by recruiting in determining a teams SOS, aside from returning experience, what do you go by to determine SOS for teams?

by mjtig on Jul 19, 2025 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Most of the people complaining...

Don’t have much of a leg to stand on. Most of the complaining I hear comes from the Big 10, but Big 10 OoC schedules are exactly as soft as our’s. Exactly.

by dxf04 on Jul 13, 2025 6:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Which Big 10 is that again?

Dum spiro spero - "While I breathe, I hope"
State motto of South Carolina

by The Feathered Warrior on Jul 13, 2025 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Call me a homer, whatever..

But since when is Fresno State considered a cupcake? Haven’t they been pretty consistently good for a while now?

by ARebel21 on Jul 13, 2025 11:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Don't be seduced by Pat Hill's mustache

Fresno St. does talk a big game and really will take on anyone anywhere. and that’s very admirable. But there is a reason the Pac-10 decided to poach utah instead. Fresno just doesn’t back it up with wins.

They are no push over to be sure, but they never get that upset that you think they will. And they’ve been second fiddle to Boise for a while now.

Managing Editor/Chief Lackey-And The Valley Shook

by PodKATT on Jul 14, 2025 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fresno State = Southern Miss of the Pacific coast

They each talk themselves up, but still lose most of their games against BCS conference competition. They oftentimes play BCS teams in close contests and have snagged a few wins over the past several seasons, but they’re pretty average overall.

by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 14, 2025 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fresno's hard to classify.

For one thing, they’re not a BCS school… and there are very few non-BCS schools that aren’t cupcakes. The ones that have moved past cupcake status have done so by participating in a BCS bowl game, which is something Fresno hasn’t even sniffed.
While they’re definitely not Tennessee Tech, they’re not really above say, Wake Forrest, UConn, or even Louisville, either.
You’re not likely to get much credit for beating them, but you’ll take a ton of crap if you lay an egg against them.

by dxf04 on Jul 14, 2025 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gotcha..

And considering our past luck, we’ll catch them on one of their best season in years like we got with Mizzou and Wake in the recent past.

That being said, I am really looking forward to the game. Next year our non-con gets really tough, if I’m remembering correctly and we get Texas along with Boise state in 2012.

by ARebel21 on Jul 14, 2025 4:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Boise and Fresno (in Fresno) in 2011.

Texas and Fresno (again, in Oxford - yes, three games) in 2012. I’m pretty sure that’s the deal.

by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jul 14, 2025 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

no offense to Auburn but I hope that UT-Chatt. wins

they’re my home town team

...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta

by southman on Jul 14, 2025 7:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Vandy could go 1-3...

I think UCONN has a good chance of beating Vandy. In fact, they may be favored in that game.

It doesn’t matter how many football games the SEC wins. We will always look down on you.

by devidee33 on Jul 14, 2025 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

UConn will be favored, no question

I was thinking the same thing

by crimson37 on Jul 14, 2025 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

especially now.

"You stay bought into it when you see your opponent sucking air and physically failing and you're still fit and ready and you know you own his ass."- Corey Reamer speaking about Coach Cochran

by bammer on Jul 14, 2025 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

UConn is a great team

Mark my words

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jul 14, 2025 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Does anyone agree

that at least 32 games is a good number or does the SEC need to win more than that?

by brandond03 on Jul 14, 2025 8:24 PM EDT reply actions  

More

Ideally, without over analyzing things, you mark all the cupcakes as wins and half the tougher games as wins. It’s somewhat subjective which games are the gimmies and which are the tests, but I see the number being a lot closer to 40.

by krnxprs on Jul 15, 2025 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  


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