Year2's Week 1 Picks

Last year: 77-18 straight up, 42-36-1 against the spread

I apologize that we're not doing a pick 'em this year. I'm not going to be able to do it properly with updates every week at times, so I'd rather not do it than do a bad one. So instead, we'll just hold off and do a pick 'em in bowl season. Thanks for understanding.

As for these picks, I'm going to use the consensus lines from the Yahoo! Sports odds page. I managed to have almost a 54% winning percentage ATS last year, which, as I understand it, is almost enough to break even in Vegas. I'm not a gambler by any stretch, but I'll take that.

Here's your TV schedule. On to the picks!

Tennessee (-3) over NC State 34-27

I'm thinking this could be a second half shootout, so I could see this game being even more high scoring than this. I like what Tennessee's equipped with better than what NC State has for winning that kind of game.

Georgia (-38) over Buffalo 52-10

Buffalo was a team getting blown out by roughly this much by MAC teams regularly. The only thing preventing a cover would be Mark Richt taking his foot off the gas.

Florida (-28.5) over Bowling Green 34-7

I don't see this being a humongous blowout because of Florida's quarterback rotation. It's not that I think those guys can't do well against a MAC defense, but rather I see it as a signal that the coaches are viewing this as a scrimmage as much as they are a game. This is going to be more practice than anything, I think.

Clemson (-3) over Auburn 27-16

Corey Lemonier could personally make this pick blow up in my face. However, I think Chad Morris's offense is a bad one for a brand new DC who hasn't coached in college in a long while to go up against in his first game. I'm also very pessimistic about all transitions between a spread offense and the pro set (doesn't matter which way), so I don't expect much from the Tiger offense here.

LSU (-43) over North Texas 42-6

On a soggy field with a new quarterback, I expect to see a lot of running out of LSU. That will keep the clock moving and probably keep the score down as well. They'll win easily, but 43 points in this situation is a high bar to clear even against North Texas.

Alabama (-14) over Michigan 30-10

So as it turns out, Denard Robinson doesn't do all that well against top defenses (at least in Al Borges's offense). Alabama has a knack for delivering humiliating defeats in season-opening neutral site games, and I expect to see another here. Ten points for Michigan might be a little high.

Louisville (-13) over Kentucky 24-13

I've been told Louisville is going to be good by a lot of people I trust, but I'm still not 100% sure what to make of them. In a Week 1 rivalry game that could be affected by the remnants of Isaac, I'll take the points.

The Bakery

Arkansas over Jacksonville State 59-13

Missouri over SELA 55-0

Ole Miss over Central Arkansas 39-10

Mississippi State over Jackson State 52-6