Let’s have a looksies at what’s ahead of us this evening:
(All times Eastern)
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Missouri Tigers (-5.5) — 7 p.m., SEC Network
Tennessee Volunteers (-7.5) vs. Florida Gators — 7 p.m., ESPN
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-2.5) — 9 p.m., SEC Network
Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5) vs. LSU Tigers — 9 p.m., ESPN2
First up on the evening is a couplet of games in Columbia and Gainesville. Mizzou hosts South Carolina in a matchup between two teams looking to break out. Both are .500 in conference play at this point, although obviously very differently (Mizzou is 2-2, SC is 1-1). This is just South Carolina’s seventh game on the season and it’s been hard to get a read on them. Mizzou, meanwhile, has played 10 games and have alternated wins and losses in SEC play. They are also 2-2 ATS in SEC play this year and are a home favorite for the first time since playing Bradley. As a home favorite, they are 1-2 on the year ATS. Perhaps worth noting, despite SC’s poorish record ATS this year (2-4). What will be interesting in this game is how each team performs from the perimeter. Both teams are bad shooting the ball from deep but good to even great at defending the 3-point shot.
Next, Tennessee will take on Florida. The Volunteers have one blemish on their record this year, a loss to Alabama on January 2. They have otherwise passed every test, standing at 10-1 on the year. They are one of the most complete teams in the country, and take on a Florida team that has been reeling. They’ve lost three of the last four games entering their game against the Vols. Offensively they’ve been skilled, but defensively there’ve been some issues. Notably on the perimeter, where teams aren’t shy to take the 3 and aren’t shy about making 3-pointers either. UT has been a very strong bet ATS this year, failing to cover only twice. UF has been 5-5 on the year, so on that alone, it might be wise to lean with the Vols.
The scene will then shift, as Ole Miss heads to Oxford to face Mississippi State. The 9-5 Bulldogs have lost just twice over the last month, going 6-2 over that eight-game stretch. Dating back to November 30, they’ve eaten just three losses on the year, standing as one of the hottest teams in the conference. Ole Miss has been the opposite. The Rebels started off 5-1, but are now 6-6 on the year and have lost three in a row. This reads as a matchup nightmare for the Rebels, who face a strong 3-point attack with a very poor perimeter defense. Neither team. has been particularly good lately at covering their respective spreads, so if you’re into that sort of thing, this game might be a pass.
Finally, LSU and Alabama will face off with each other. The two top teams in the SEC have not met this season yet, but both walk into this game riding waves of momentum. Alabama hasn’t lost since December 19, while LSU has suffered just one loss since all the way back in late November. This will be a fascinating game and will tell us a lot about where each team’s at. LSU’s offense has a hearty advantage in this game. They rank fifth in the nation in AdjOE and rank within the Top 60 of 3PT FG%, 21st in 2PT FG% and 24th in FT%. They also rank 17th in 3PT FG% allowed, and ‘Bama has just merely an average 3-point shooting team. I’ll be particularly charmed by this one tonight, and so should you. ‘Bama is 6-0-1 ATS over their last seven games, while LSU is 3-4.