2012 College Football Bowl Score Projections

For each of the past two years, I have used a formula to project the outcome of all of the bowl games. Combined, they're 45-25 straight up (.643) and 39-28-3 (.579) against the spread. That's noticeably better than random guessing, and as I understand it, the ATS mark is above the magic 55% threshold for making money. They also are consistent; the straight up marks are 23-12 and 22-13, while the ATS marks are 19-14-2 and 20-14-1.

The normal caveats to any kind of bowl picking apply. Some of these are going to be way off because the method doesn't account for things like coaching changes or motivation and the lack thereof. Some teams are going to flop because they just don't care or because a key coach or two took the first bus out of town. Besides, 19 of these projections are within a field goal of the point spread, so they're not completely unsound. Also keep in mind that Clemson was favored to win the Orange Bowl last year before getting splattered 70-33. Being way off here and there is to be expected.

I (won't) be entering these into the bowl pick 'em group (sign up before it's too late!) with the largest projected margin of victory having the most confidence points going down to the slimmest having the fewest confidence points. See if you can beat the formula. (Note: Yahoo! changed the rules so you can only put one entry in a group. So, find them here instead once the picks lock.) The point spreads below are the consensus from here, as of December 13 when I posted this.

Here goes nothing, and remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Green in the "Projection" column indicates a correct pick straight up; green in the "Pick" column indicates a correct pick against the spread. You can guess what red means.