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2011 College Football Bowl Score Projections

Last year I ran score projections for all of the bowl games, and they worked out pretty well. They were 23-12 straight up and 19-14-2 against the spread. You certainly could do a lot worse. I described the method back when I made my projection for the SEC Championship Game. I compared them to the over/under last year, but they were awful at that. I'm sticking to just scores and point spreads this time. I also did not remove overtime results this year for want of time, so we'll see if that makes much of a difference.

I know that some of these are going to be way off because the method doesn't account for things like coaching changes or motivation and the lack thereof. Teams are going to flop because they just don't care or because a key coach or two took the first bus out of town. The method itself isn't perfect either, but with each year I try to make it better.

I'm putting them up against the point spreads by Yahoo here. They reflect the lines as of the morning of today, December 14. I used the bodog spreads where available and the general consensus of the others where not.

Here goes nothing, and remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Bowl Teams Favorite Projection Pick
New Mexico Temple vs. Wyoming Temple -7 Temple 29-13 Temple
Famous Idaho Potato Ohio vs. Utah State USU -3 Ohio 33-30 Ohio + points
New Orleans SDSU vs. UL-Lafayette SDSU -4.5 SDSU 33-26 SDSU
St. Petersburg FIU vs. Marshall FIU -4 FIU 28-17 FIU
Poinsettia TCU vs. LA Tech TCU -10.5 TCU 32-23 LA Tech + points
Las Vegas Arizona St. vs. Boise St. BSU -14 BSU 43-23 Boise St.
Hawaii Nevada vs. So. Miss USM -6 USM 34-26 Southern Miss
Independence Missouri vs. UNC Missouri -5 Missouri 25-24 UNC + points
Little Caesar's WMU vs. Purdue Purdue -2 WMU 37-28 Western Michigan
Belk Louisville vs. NCSU NCSU -3 Louisville 23-20 Louisville + points
Military Toledo vs. Air Force Toledo -3 Toledo 42-35 Toledo
Holiday Cal vs. Texas Texas -3 Texas 23-19 Texas
Champs Sports FSU vs. Notre Dame FSU -3 FSU 25-19 FSU
Alamo Washington vs. Baylor Baylor -9 Baylor 47-40 UW + points
Armed Forces BYU vs. Tulsa BYU -3 Tulsa 29-26 Tulsa + points
Pinstripe Rutgers vs. Iowa St. Rutgers -2 Rutgers 25-16 Rutgers
Music City Miss St. vs. Wake Forest MSU -7 MSU 26-22 Wake + points
Insight Iowa vs. Oklahoma OU -14 OU 37-22 Oklahoma
Car Care of Texas Texas A&M vs. Northwestern A&M -10 A&M 40-29 Texas A&M
Sun Georgia Tech vs. Utah GT -3.5 GT 25-23 Utah + points
Liberty Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt Vandy -3 Cincy 26-23 Cincy + points
Fight Hunger Illinois vs. UCLA Illinois -3 Illinois 24-18 Illinois
Chick-fil-A Virginia vs. Auburn AU -1.5 Virginia 25-23 Virginia + points
TicketCity Houston vs. Penn St. Houston -6 Houston 38-18 Houston
Outback Michigan State vs. Georgia UGA -3.5 MSU 27-22 MSU + points
Capital One Nebraska vs. South Carolina SC -3 SC 28-22 South Carolina
Gator Ohio State vs. Florida Florida -2 UF 19.44-19.11 Ohio St. + points
Rose Wisconsin vs. Oregon Oregon -6 Wisconsin 40-37 Wisconsin + points
Fiesta Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. OSU -3.5 Stanford 40-38 Stanford + points
Sugar Michigan vs. Virginia Tech Michigan -3 Michigan 26-16 Michigan
Orange WVU vs. Clemson Clem -3.5 Clemson 36-34 WVU + points
Cotton Kansas St. vs. Arkansas Ark -7.5 Arkansas 38-32 K-State + points
BBVA Compass SMU vs. Pittsburgh Pitt -4.5 Pitt 24-19 Pittsburgh
GoDaddy Arkansas St. vs. NIU ASU -1.5 ASU 35-30 Arkansas State
BCS NCG Alabama vs. LSU Pick LSU 21.86-21.53 LSU

Green in the "Projection" column indicates a correct pick straight up; green in the "Pick" column indicates a correct pick against the spread. You can guess what red means.