I've been doing score projections for bowl games for three years now, and with each year comes a new tweak. The method is described here. The new element last year was eliminating data from I-AA games, and that helped. What I added this year is removing all scoring from overtime periods across the board. What happens in overtime in no way reflects the normal course of a football game, so I'm thinking that should help.
Another thing I did this year is finally do a score projection for every bowl game. I've run out of time in past seasons, but as you'll see below I did finish this year.
I'm also putting them up against the point spreads and over/unders as reported yesterday by Yahoo here. I used the bodog spreads where available and the general consensus of the others where not. The reason is because I've seen plenty of situations where the projected point totals were off, but the margin was close.
I know that some of these are going to be way off because the method doesn't account for things like coaching changes or motivation and the lack thereof. Teams are going to flop because they just don't care or because a key coach or two took the first bus out of town. The method itself isn't perfect either, but with each year I try to make it better. I also will note that I put very little stock in bowls that match up BCS and non-BCS teams, because I haven't yet figured out a way to translate between the differing levels of schedule strength.
So hopefully most of these will work out. This method has been pretty good at sniffing out upsets in the past.
| Bowl | Teams | Favorite | Projection | Pick | O/U | Projected Total | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | BYU vs. UTEP | BYU -12 | BYU 24-17 | UTEP + points | 50 | 40.72 | Under |
| Humanitarian | NIU vs. Fresno St. | NIU -1 | NIU 40-23 | NIU | 59 | 63.31 | Over |
| New Orleans | Ohio vs. Troy | Troy -1.5 | Ohio 31-30 | Ohio | 58 | 61.31 | Over |
| St. Petersburg | So Miss vs. Louisville | Louisville -3.5 | Louisville 30-28 | So Miss + points | 57 | 57.57 | Over |
| Las Vegas | Utah vs. Boise St. | Boise St. -17 | Boise St. 40-21 | Boise St. | 61 | 61.10 | Push |
| Poinsettia | Navy vs. SDSU | Navy -4.5 | Navy 31-30 | SDSU + points | 60.5 | 60.30 | Push |
| Hawaii | Hawaii vs. Tulsa | Hawaii -11 | Hawaii 39-34 | Tulsa + points | 73 | 73.20 | Push |
| Little Caesars | FIU vs. Toledo | Toledo -1.5 | Toledo 28.14-28.02 | FIU + points | 56 | 56.16 | Push |
| Independence | Air Force vs. GT | AFA -3 | AFA 31-22 | Air Force | 56 | 52.10 | Under |
| Champs Sports | West Virginia vs. NCSU | WVU -3 | WVU 23-21 | NCSU + points | 49 | 44.17 | Under |
| Insight | Missouri vs. Iowa | Missouri -1 | Missouri 19-17 | Missouri | 47 | 35.74 | Under |
| Military | ECU vs. Maryland | Maryland -7.5 | Maryland 44-35 | Maryland | 68 | 79.07 | Over |
| Texas | Illinois vs. Baylor | Baylor -1.5 | Illinois 35-29 | Illinois | 62 | 63.52 | Over |
| Alamo | Oklahoma St. vs. Arizona | OSU -6 | OSU 38-27 | Oklahoma St. | 66 | 65.39 | Under |
| Armed Forces | Army vs. SMU | SMU -8 | SMU 24.60-24.29 | Army + points | 52 | 48.89 | Under |
| Pinstripe | Kansas St. vs. Syracuse | KSU -1 | Kansas St. 27-21 | Kansas St. | 48 | 48.17 | Push |
| Music City | UNC vs. Tennessee | UNC -3 | UNC 24.24-20.83 | Tennessee + points | 50 | 45.08 | Under |
| Holiday | Nebraska vs. Washington | NU -14 | Nebraska 36-13 | Nebraska | 53 | 48.93 | Under |
| Car Care | USF vs. Clemson | Clemson -4.5 | Clemson 16-11 | Clemson | 40 | 27.75 | Under |
| Sun | Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL) | Miami -3 | Notre Dame 21-19 | Notre Dame | 47 | 39.52 | Under |
| Liberty | UCF vs. Georgia | UGA -7 | UCF 27-24 | UCF | 56 | 51.49 | Under |
| Chick-fil-A | South Carolina vs. FSU | S. Carolina -3 | S. Carolina 27-26 | FSU + points | 54.5 | 52.40 | Under |
| TicketCity | N'western vs. Texas Tech | TTU -10 | TTU 32-27 | N'western + points | 60 | 59.41 | Under |
| Outback | Florida vs. Penn St. | Florida -7 | Florida 25-20 | Penn St. + points | 48 | 45.05 | Under |
| Capital One | Alabama vs. Michigan St. | Alabama -10.5 | Alabama 27-18 | MSU + points | 52 | 44.06 | Under |
| Gator | Miss St. vs. Michigan | Miss St. -5 | MSU 29.65-24.80 | Michigan + points | 60 | 54.45 | Under |
| Rose | Wisconsin vs. TCU | TCU -3 | TCU 36-26 | TCU | 59 | 62.29 | Over |
| Fiesta | UConn vs. Oklahoma | OU -17 | Oklahoma 31-22 | UConn + points | 55 | 52.66 | Under |
| Orange | Stanford vs. VT | Stanford -3 | Stanford 30.83-28.46 | VT + points | 58 | 59.30 | Over |
| Sugar | Ohio St. vs. Arkansas | OSU -3.5 | Ohio St. 36-24 | Ohio St. | 58 | 60.12 | Over |
| GoDaddy | MTSU vs. Miami (OH) | Miami -1.5 | Miami 22-20 | Miami (OH) | 48 | 42.50 | Under |
| Cotton | LSU vs. Texas A&M | LSU -1 | LSU 22.53-21.80 | A&M + points | 49 | 44.33 | Under |
| BBVA Compass | Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky | Pitt -3 | Pitt 30-26 | Pittsburgh | 53 | 56.26 | Over |
| Fight Hunger | Nevada vs. BC | Nevada -10 | Nevada 34-14 | Nevada | 55 | 47.76 | Under |
| BCS NCG | Oregon vs. Auburn | Auburn -3 | Oregon 43-36 | Oregon | 74 | 79.84 | Over |
A note on the color coding: green means correct; red means incorrect. The colors in the Projection column simply denote if the projection picked the correct winner. The first Pick column indicates if it was correct against the spread. The second Pick column indicates whether or not it was right in regards to the over/under.