Teams: LSU (3-2, 0-1) vs. Florida (3-1, 3-0)
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT/3:30 p.m. ET
Series: Florida leads the all-time series 32-28-3. However, LSU has won the last 6 of 10.
Spread: Florida opened as 4-point faves. The line has downsized to between 2-3.
O/U: The total started at 46.5. It dropped to be 44-45.
Records ATS: LSU (1-4) | Florida (1-3)
Florida has sluggishly pushed their way out to a 3-0 record in SEC play. The Gators offense has been anything but brilliant, yet here they are, atop the SEC East again.
LSU, meanwhile, has sputtered to a 3-2 record overall, having taken it on the chin against the Mississippi St. Bulldogs. That’s their lone result in SEC play so far. The loss to the Troy Trojans last week may have been even more embarrassing than being beaten by 30 at the hands of the Bulldogs.
A win for both teams is, in simple terms: Muy importante. LSU is looking to avoid an 0-2 hole that would effectively take them out of the race in the SEC West. Because ‘Bama. No other reasons necessary.
A loss for Florida, however, would put them behind the charging Georgia Bulldogs. The ‘Dawgs are also unbeaten in SEC play and get the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday afternoon. Assuming UGA handles their business, and there’s no reason to expect that they won’t, then UF could be staring up in the standings at their hated rival.
The key to a win may simply be effectively running the ball. With both teams’ aerial attacks struggling to this point, the ground game will be one to watch. LSU got taken to school by Jordan Chunn last week. The Trojans tailback averaged a clip of 6.37 yards per carry and totaled 191 yards on the ground.
The 220 yards allowed on the ground last week will be simply unacceptable to allow again this week. The Tigers have to play better in the trenches if they want to win. Florida’s rushing attack can do plenty when leaned on. Especially freshman Malik Davis, who is in the midst of a breakout right now. He may be the one to watch for in this bad boy in Gainesville.
Neither team has been particularly great against the spread this season. Both teams, as pointed out above, have only won once. Well... something has to give, this side of a push. Confidence isn’t swelling in Baton Rouge right now. To be honest, it isn’t for me either.
Prediction: Florida 24, LSU 17