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Viewing Information
Time: 11 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Gambling Info
Spread: Mississippi State opened as an 11.5-point favorite. At last glance, the Bulldogs were 14 -point favorites over the RedHawks.
Records ATS: Miami (OH): 8-4 | Mississippi State: 5-7
O/U: 58/58.5
Inside the Numbers (via Football Study Hall)
| Category | Mississippi State | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Category | Mississippi State | Miami (OH) |
| S&P+ Offense | 34.9 (33rd) | 25.8 (87th) |
| S&P+ Defense | 30.7 (79th) | 28.2 (51st) |
| Rushing S&P+ Offense | 126.3 (7th) | 96.2 (90th) |
| Rushing S&P+ Defense | 103.8 (51st) | 98 (73rd) |
| Rush Success Rate Offense | 46.4% (39th) | 38.5% (113th) |
| Rush Success Rate Defense | 41.4% (46th) | 44.6% (80th) |
| Passing S&P+ Offense | 105.5 (53rd) | 104 (56th) |
| Passing S&P+ Defense | 91 (103rd) | 102.7 (54th) |
| Pass Success Rate Offense | 41.4% (61st) | 44.4% (34th) |
| Pass Success Rate Defense | 42.1% (75th) | 38.5% (47th) |
Players to Watch
Miami (OH)
DL JT Jones: Mississippi State will have to pay close attention to RedHawks defensive lineman JT Jones. The senior lineman has amassed a team-high 6.5 sacks this season and 33 tackles as well, wreaking havoc on the line and making quarterbacks’ lives miserable in the MAC. To their credit, Mississippi State does a good job in not allowing sacks, as their Adj. Sack Rate ranks 16th in the country. Nonetheless, Jones ranks as one of Miami’s best defensive linemen, if not the top player on the team and stopping him from disrupting will have to be a top priority.
QB Gus Ragland: After missing the first six games of the year, Gus Ragland saddled himself back under center. The redshirt sophomore, who had been on the sidelines for the first half of the season after an ACL injury back on the spring, quickly reignited the RedHawks and led them to an historic feat. Miami (OH) is the first team ever to go 6-6 after starting off 0-6 and lots of the credit can be shouldered on Ragland’s shoulders. The Cincinnati native has thrown for 15 touchdowns in the last six games and exactly zero interceptions on 149 pass attempts.
Mississippi State
WR Fred Ross: Ross was one of the best wide receivers in the SEC this year by most measures, racking up 873 yards and 12 touchdowns on the year. His catch rate was a stellar 62.4 percent, second-highest among wide receivers on the team behind freshman Keith Mixon who posted a mark of 65.5 percent. Entering the St. Petersburg Bowl though, the Texas native has been in a bit of a funk. Although he posted a 10-catch, 171-yard performance against Arkansas, Ross struggled against Alabama and Ole Miss, putting up a combined four catches and 61 yards with only one touchdown. The RedHawks’ pass defense is good, not great, so Ross has a ripened opportunity to get it going to finish the year strong.
DL Johnathan Calvin: Like Miami (OH), Mississippi State has a disruptive force on their defensive line. Johnathan Calvin is the team’s sack leader, as the senior has amassed seven sacks in the 2016 campaign. Calvin also has a team-high 11.5 tackles for loss, one more than fellow lineman AJ Jefferson and 3.5 more than linebacker JT Gray. The RedHawks will have to do their damnedest to stop Calvin but they haven’t done a great job at preventing sacks this year. In fact, their Adjusted Sack Rate to this point is 126th in the country out of 128 teams. Calvin could have a huge day if he can get past the linemen who he’ll be battling with all morning.