Ole Miss and Mississippi State: The Burden of Expectation

Perhaps it is my nature as an Ole Miss fan, but being ranked 18th in the 2014 preseason AP Poll scares me. With few exceptions, every time the pressure rises on the Rebels, they have failed to deliver over the last few decades. The exclamation "We Are Ole Miss," has been turned from a positive statement to one of derision, but the current athletic administration and coaching staff have been trying to change that course. So why is it that I feel that we are over ranked? Perhaps it's not from on the field pressure, but the burden of the past, not only for Ole Miss, but both Magnolia State SEC schools.

All throughout the buildup to this season, Ole Miss and Mississippi State have been ranked similarly by SEC pundits. Both Brandon and Year2 picked State to finish ahead of Ole Miss as a result of the Egg Bowl (though I would argue Ole Miss will win the Egg Bowl, given the home field advantage in the series since 1999), but Mississippi State only garnered 22 votes in the preseason poll. This places the Bulldogs 11th in the others receiving votes category.

Since the John Vaught Era, rarely have expectations been higher on a national level than this year. Only three times since 1971 have the Rebels been ranked in the preseason AP Poll. In the same time period, Mississippi State has started the season ranked in the AP Poll six times. Out of the nine seasons in which either team was ranked in the preseason, each team has only managed a single appearance in the season-ending poll, and the best of these seasons all ended with the team with the preseason hype losing the Egg Bowl.

Even in the two seasons in which a team finished the year ranked, the seasons could be considered a disappointment.

Jackie Sherrill's 1992 Bulldogs entered the season after a positive end to the 1991 season with wins over Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss in the last three weeks of the regular season. The 1992 team started the year 4-1, including an 18-point win at Texas and a 30-6 win over then-No. 13 (and eventual SEC East champion) Florida. After beating Auburn, Kentucky, and Arkansas, the Bulldogs were standing at No. 16 in the AP Poll and 4-2 in the SEC on Nov. 13, with an outside shot at winning the inaugural SEC West title. Consecutive losses to rivals Alabama and Ole Miss, as well as the Peach Bowl to North Carolina, closed a season that offered high possibilities and a disappointing outcome given the late-season swoon.

Ole Miss entered 2009 sky high after winning six straight games to end 2008, including wins over Arkansas, Auburn, No. 18 LSU, Mississippi State and No. 8 Texas Tech. Included in that winning streak were an 18-point win in Baton Rouge and a 45-0 shutout in Sylvester Croom's last Egg Bowl. After starting 2009 with two wins and rising to a No. 4 ranking, Houston Nutt went to South Carolina with the Rebels completely unprepared for a Thursday night game. In the immediate aftermath of the South Carolina loss, offensive tackle Bradley Sowell infuriated Ole Miss fans by saying, "I'm glad it's over with so everyone can just stop talking about it," in reference to the Rebels' lofty rankings. After a lackluster loss in Columbia, an even worse loss came two weekends later with a 22-3 loss at home to Alabama. While the season somewhat improved with wins over Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma State, a loss in Starkville ended a disappointing season given the expectations entering the season.

So what does the past tell us for 2014? First, as should be expected, that preseason polls do not have any bearing on the upcoming season, but people will use them as a benchmark for expectations. In regards to the Mississippi schools, where the reflection of a season's success can be determined by defeating the archrival, expectations have proved to be a heavy burden in the past, and it will be a tall task for Ole Miss to overcome in 2014. While the potential is in place for a loss to Boise State or Vanderbilt to open the season (though I do not believe it will happen), the real tests begin in October, where the season could be made or lost. A successful October could lead to Ole Miss breaking the streak of disappointing seasons with heightened expectations for Mississippi schools.

All historial poll info via http://collegepollarchive.com