Arkansas and Mizzou are ready to tangle in their annual final-week matchup. The annual tussle is in Fayetteville this year, meaning the Razorbacks are hoping to go out on a high note at home. Mizzou’s chances of souring things for Arkansas are probably pretty slim, but they damn sure will be trying on Friday afternoon.
How to watch Arkansas vs. Mizzou
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT
Watch Online: CBSSports.com
(via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Spread: Arkansas -14.5 | Mizzou +14.5
Moneyline: Arkansas -650 | Mizzou +460
It’s hard to find really any sort of edge for Mizzou in this game. The Tigers come into this game pretty overmatched, to say the least. They’re scoring 28 points per game and averaging 35.4 points per game allowed on the year. By contrast, Arkansas is besting them in PPG (29.9) and PPG/a (26.8). The Hogs also best them in YPG, YPG/a, YPP, Points/Play, RZ Scoring%, and beat them in nearly every defensive efficiency metric as well.
Home field advantage could be on full display in this matchup as well. Arkansas, on average, has a +12.6 score margin at home per TeamRankings.com. Mizzou, on the other hand, has a -10.5 score margin on the road this season. Arkansas is scoring a little over five touchdowns worth of points per game at home, while Mizzou’s giving up over five touchdowns worth of points per game on the road. The Hogs also average over 6.0 YPP at home to Mizzou’s 5.4 away from Columbia.
Something that Mizzou could find themselves being exploited on is their red-zone defense. The Tiger defense has been porous on the road, letting up an RZ Scoring% of 90.91 percent away from Columbia. Fittingly, Arkansas has a 90 percent mark on offense in that category. Terrible matchup? Could be if trends continue!
One thing is true though: 3rd down conversions haven’t really been Arkansas’ specialty this season. At least compared to Mizzou. The Razorbacks are averaging 44.29 percent on 3DCs at home. Mizzou’s mark of 48.21 percent bests them by a hair, but what’s also true is the Tigers will have their hands full. The Razorback defense, prideful as they are fierce, have only allowed a 3DC rate of 33.82 percent on the season at home. So Mizzou will need to bring their absolute best on those key downs if they want any chance of hanging with the Hogs on Friday.
It’s really hard to envision this being a close game, but college football’s a weird-ass sport. So who the hell knows really? With that being said, I would probably expect Arkansas to roll and to improve to a very respectable 4-4 in SEC play and an 8-4 record on the year.