Team Speed Kills - SEC 2013: Previewing Auburn's First Football Season Under Gus MalzahnSports are just better in the SEChttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52580/tsk_fav.png2013-06-21T14:37:24-04:00http://www.teamspeedkills.com/rss/stream/41896232013-06-21T14:37:24-04:002013-06-21T14:37:24-04:00SEC 2013: Auburn and the Importance of Swing
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>How good or bad are the Tigers going to be in 2013? That's a good question, and I'm not sure I know the answer</p> <p>I don't know if Auburn will have the most "swing" games this year -- defining those as possible wins or possible losses -- but it's got to be pretty close. I've got almost half of the Tigers' games this year as either possible wins or losses, and that pretty well defines how I feel about this team. If everything breaks well, Auburn could not only go to a bowl but a relatively decent one. If things go South ... look out below.</p>
<p>The issue is figuring out just how much of an impact Gus Malzahn's offense returning to the Plains is going to have, how much trouble the Tigers will have transitioning to the 4-2-5 on defense, and whether there are going to be any other hiccups along the way. If Auburn runs the table on all those things, this could easily be an eight-win team. But if one or more goes wrong, things could go very differently.</p>
<p>The schedule doesn't do them any favors. As much as Les Miles likes to complain about having to play Florida every year, it's Auburn who's going up against the two-time SEC East champion in a Georgia team that is at least one of the favorites this year. That doesn't count the road games against LSU and Texas A&M, and perhaps the two most winnable games on the schedule being on the road.</p>
<p>All that seems to point toward modest but not overwhelming improvement this year, taking the Tigers from the basement of the SEC West ... to still in the basement of the SEC West, but with a far more respectable record and an outside shot at bowl eligibility. But a difference of a few games either way wouldn't surprise me.</p>
<p><i>Place:</i> 7th in the SEC West<br><i>Record:</i> 5-7, 1-7 SEC<br><i>Could be:</i> 3-9 to 8-4<br><i>Best chance for an upset:</i> at LSU<br><i>Bowl:</i> NONE</p>
<p>8.31.13 <b>| WASHINGTON STATE |</b> POSSIBLE WIN<br>9.7.13 <b>| ARKANSAS STATE |</b> PROBABLE WIN<br>9.14.13 <b>| MISSISSIPPI STATE |</b> POSSIBLE LOSS<br>9.21.13 <b>| at LSU |</b> LIKELY LOSS<br>10.5.13 <b>| OLE MISS |</b> POSSIBLE LOSS<br>10.12.13 <b>| WESTERN CAROLINA |</b> WIN<br>10.19.13 <b>| at TEXAS A&M |</b> LIKELY LOSS<br>10.26.13 <b>| FAU |</b> LIKELY WIN<br>11.2.13 <b>| at ARKANSAS |</b> POSSIBLE LOSS<br>11.9.13 <b>| at TENNESSEE |</b> POSSIBLE WIN<br>11.16.13 <b>| GEORGIA |</b> LIKELY LOSS<br>11.30.13 <b>| ALABAMA |</b> LIKELY LOSS</p>
<p><i>Key (from least likely to win to most): Loss, Likely Loss, Probable Loss, Possible Loss, Possible Win, Probable Win, Likely Win, Win</i></p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2013/6/21/4447684/auburn-tigers-fooball-2013-predictionsBrandon Larrabee2013-06-20T09:00:08-04:002013-06-20T09:00:08-04:00SEC 2013: 3 Things We Know and Don't Know: Auburn
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<figcaption>Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>From Gus Malzahn's offense to Ellis Johnson's defense and the little matter of who the quarterback is going to be, here are the questions and answers that will define Auburn's season</p> <h4>THREE THINGS WE KNOW</h4>
<p><b>1. What the offense will look like</b><br>This is Gus Malzahn's third go-round in the SEC, even if his Arkansas offense was heavily curbed by Houston Nutt, so we pretty much know what to expect right now. Malzahn is going to run an up-tempo offense built on misdirection, with a dash of trick and "gimmick" plays. (For the record, I like what some people call "gimmick" plays, so that's not meant to diminish Malzahn's offense at all.) Very little of this is going to look completely new to Auburn fans or SEC observers, though that means that very little of it will look completely new to opposing defensive coordinators.</p>
<p><b>2. A receiver needs to step up</b><br>It's nice to have <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131875/tre-mason">Tre Mason</a> in the backfield, and the likely contestants for quarterback can run. But ultimately, Auburn is going to have to throw -- and while that might be an adventure on the quarterback side of the pass, it currently looks like a question mark on the other side. The Tigers are losing well over half of their receptions and receiving yards from 2012. Malzahn has the ability to use his personnel about as well as anyone in the country, so he'll either groom some top-notch targets for the quarterbacks or work around it -- but the former would be much easier.</p>
<p><b>3. The defense is likely to be completely different</b><br>Given the <a href="http://www.auburntigers.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/050113aad.html">tentative depth chart</a> that Auburn released after the spring and <a href="http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2013/05/auburns_cornerbacks_thriving_i.html">news stories</a>, it looks like Ellis Johnson is going to install the 4-2-5 defense he used at South Carolina. And if Johnson gets similar results to what he got in Columbia -- the total defense was ranked in the top third of the SEC for for three of Johnson's four years -- it could mark a departure for an Auburn program that didn't have an elite defense even once during the Gene Chizik Era. In any case, it would be almost impossible for Johnson to make things worse on a defense that allowed 5.99 yards per play last year.</p>
<h4>THREE THINGS WE DON'T KNOW</h4>
<p><b>1. Who the quarterback will be</b><br>There's no shortage of candidates, with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136333/kiehl-frazier">Kiehl Frazier</a>, Jonathan Wallace and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136436/nick-marshall">Nick Marshall</a> being the leading candidates. Neither Frazier nor Wallace apparently <a href="http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2013/05/position-by-position_spring_an.html">set the world on fire during the spring</a>, meaning things are wide-open for Marshall if he can grasp the offense. And while Marshall had a decent completion percentage and yardage numbers at Garden City Community College last year, he also threw for 18 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Frazier's numbers last year at Auburn were worse in 2012, and Wallace's weren't much better -- but how much can be drawn from that given the nature of last year's offense is an open question. This looks like an all-out position battle going into the fall.</p>
<p><b>2. What the ceiling is for the offense</b><br>Between the offensive dysfunction last year, the quarterback controversy and the question marks at receiver, there are plenty of reasons to bet against the offense. But there's also a wild card that could give the Tigers a little room for growth: 2013 will be the junior year for the offensive players recruited to run Malzahn's offense after the 2010 national championship season. In fact, except for the 2012 class, all of the last five recruiting classes have been shaped at least a little bit by what Malzahn likes to do on offense. There won't be the same square-peg-round-hole syndrome this year that Auburn faced in 2012, which makes it possible -- <i>possible</i> -- that the Tigers offense could get a boost from that alone.</p>
<p><b>3. Whether Malzahn can handle the spotlight</b><br>No offense to Arkansas State -- but being the head coach at Arkansas State is nothing like being the head coach at Auburn. We've seen some midmajor head coaches with distinguished assistant coaching resumes continue to succeed (Kevin Sumlin) and some, um, not succeed (Derek Dooley). Of course, Malzahn has spent more than his fair share of time in the glare given his bizarre season at Arkansas and his wife's outspokenness, as well as the Cam Newton questions in 2010. If there's a coach prepared to handle the stress of being a head coach in the SEC without actually having been a head coach in the conference, it's Malzahn.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2013/6/20/4447440/auburn-tigers-2013-football-preview-questionsBrandon Larrabee2013-06-17T13:29:03-04:002013-06-17T13:29:03-04:00SEC 2013: Auburn's Roster Intrigues
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<p>It's not like Gene Chizik exactly left the cupboards stocked for Gus Malzahn, but there are some players who could make this a fun team to watch. Part of Kentucky-Auburn "week"</p> <p id="paragraph0" class="dropcap pgh-paragraph">Here's why Auburn is one of the more interesting teams around right now: This is set to be the junior year for the recruiting class that came in after the 2010 national championship. That would be the national championship that was one in large part thanks to then-offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who is now the head man at Auburn. If there's a team not based in Oxford that has a chance to wildly exceed expectations, it could be Auburn. That doesn't meant the Tigers would end up in the BCS, mind you, but a Peach Bowl berth at this point would be reason for giddiness in the Auburn-Opelika metropolitan area.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph1"><b>BIGGEST RETURN |</b> <i>RB Tre Mason</i><i></i><br>If, like most SEC fans, you stopped paying attention to Auburn some time in late October -- okay, mid-October -- you might have missed the fact that Auburn had a 1,000-yard rusher. But Auburn did, in fact, have a 1,000 yard rusher in Tre Mason. In fairness, Mason did just make it (1,002 yards) and only after huge games against New Mexico State and Alabama A&M (a combined 333 yards in those two games) -- but a 1,000-yard rusher is a 1,000-yard rusher, and it's not like you've got a horde of All-Americans returning to the Plains this year. If nothing else, Mason gives Gus Malzahn something to build on, or at least someone to go to as he tries to make the Auburn offense a functioning offense once more. Look for Mason to get more than 171 carries this year as long as he's healthy enough to stay on the field.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph2"><b>BIGGEST LOSS |</b> <i>WR <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78558/emory-blake">Emory Blake</a></i><br>It's also not like Auburn lost a ton of All-Americans off last year's team. But they did lose a pretty good receiver in Emory Blake, who was the only Auburn player to catch more than 15 passes and the only one to break 150 yards. Really. Blake had 789 yards and three touchdowns on 50 catches last years, numbers that (as just suggested) blew away everyone else on the team. In fact, the Tigers lose three of their top four receivers and have just one player returning (<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131867/quan-bray">Quan Bray</a>) with more than 10 receptions last year; Bray had 14. The top returning receiver in terms of yardage is <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131880/c-j-uzomah">C.J. Uzomah</a> -- so Auburn has a lot of work to do when it comes to receivers (and quarterbacks), and it would have been far easier to do that work if the Tigers weren't losing a guy like Blake.</p>
<p class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph3"><b>BREAKTHROUGH POSSIBILITY |</b> <i>The quarterback</i><br>Even if we don't know who he is yet. The smart money is on junior college transfer <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136436/nick-marshall">Nick Marshall</a> after <a href="http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2013/05/with_quarterback_battle_in_dea.html">Auburn's current options underwhelmed in the spring</a>, but whoever gets the job will almost certainly do better than they did last year. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136333/kiehl-frazier">Kiehl Frazier</a> is intriguing because he was recruited for Malzahn's system, then placed into a pro-style system by Gene Chizik in one of the many dumb decisions Gene Chizik made in 2012. (For an optimistic take on Frazier's chances now that Malzahn's back, go <a href="http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2013/may/07/frazier-auburn-see-improvement/">here</a>.) If Marshall gets the job, it will likely be because his interception problems were fixed and he picked up the offense well enough to pass Frazier. If Frazier gets the job, it could be more of a mixed bag or status quo decision -- but it also could mean he finally feels at home in the offense he should have been in for his entire career.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2013/6/17/4438438/auburn-tigers-football-roster-previewBrandon Larrabee2013-06-13T09:00:09-04:002013-06-13T09:00:09-04:00SEC 2013: Auburn's Manageable Schedule
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<p>The Tigers will still need a lot of things to go right to get to the postseason. But the schedule could have been a lot worse</p> <p><i>This is an overview. Predictions come later.</i></p>
<p><b>8.31.13 | WASHINGTON STATE<br>9.7.13 | ARKANSAS STATE<br>9.14.13 | MISSISSIPPI STATE<br>9.21.13 | at LSU</b></p>
<p>There's a little bit of everything for Auburn in the first month. A technically BCS AQ opponent in Washington State, a grudge match for the coach in Arkansas State, a conference game in Mississippi State and a conference reality check in the trip to LSU. If Auburn can win three of these games, they actually have decent shot at a bowl; there are two more eminently winnable games on the schedule, as we'll see, and that means the Tigers just need one more victory to get to the postseason. The Washington State game is fascinating simply as a test for the secondary, if nothing else; and if the offense can't score against the Cougars, it could be tough sledding the rest of the year. And <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/eye-on-college-football/21511749/photo-arkansas-state-fan-wants-his-arm-back-from-gus-malzahn">some fans weren't pleased with Gus Malzahn leaving ASU</a>, though it's not clear whether that's enough motivation for the Red Wolves to pull what will be a significant upset.</p>
<p><b>10.5.13 | OLE MISS<br>10.12.13 | WESTERN CAROLINA<br>10.19.13 | at TEXAS A&M<br>10.26.13 | FAU</b></p>
<p>See? Two more games that Auburn should be heavily favored to win, against Western Carolina and FAU, means that three September wins would leave the Tigers with at least five going into November. If only the two remaining games in October didn't feature teams that scored a combined 104 points against Auburn last year. (For those of you who prefer yards, Auburn gave up 1,112 of them -- including 552 rushing -- in those two games.) The Tigers return a lot of defensive starters this year, but they're in many cases the same returning starters that gave up all that offense in the first place. And Ole Miss brings back eight of its offensive starters, so it's not like the Rebels are going to lose a step.</p>
<p><b>11.2.13 | at ARKANSAS<br>11.9.13 | at TENNESSEE<br>11.16.13 | GEORGIA<br>11.30.13 | ALABAMA</b></p>
<p>If you were looking to sketch out a bowl schedule for the Tigers, you would probably want to see these four games swapped around. Beating Georgia and Alabama anywhere is likely to be difficult -- though the Georgia game could be a barnburner if Malzahn gets the offense going -- so why not play the two more winnable games at home? Instead, the Tigers will travel to Arkansas -- where the natives there also have a history with Malzahn -- and to Knoxville, another team that will be in the first year of a rebuilding effort. This goes back to why getting five wins before November looms large. With five wins, the Tigers only need to split those road games to get to a bowl. But if they still have just four wins when the calendar turns, that means a sweep is necessary to avoid having to beat one of the conference rivals to make the postseason.</p>
<p>Overall, this is about as favorable a schedule as you could expect if you're Auburn, given the rivalry with Georgia. The Tigers avoid Florida and South Carolina out of the East and have four winnable nonconference games. The open question remains whether its good enough to get through the season with at least a .500 record.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2013/6/13/4425404/2013-auburn-football-schedule-previewBrandon Larrabee