Team Speed Kills - BCS Standings, Week 11: Oregon Rising But Kansas State Still AheadSports are just better in the SEChttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52580/tsk_fav.png2012-11-05T00:19:59-05:00http://www.teamspeedkills.com/rss/stream/33656992012-11-05T00:19:59-05:002012-11-05T00:19:59-05:00Inside the Rankings
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<figcaption>Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>Plus, the fate of BCS busters and Mississippi State and why the computers seem to like Oregon State</p> <p><b>The computers hate hate hate Florida State.</b> This isn't really that unusual this season, given the Seminoles big win and the loss to N.C. State. But the gap between the humans and the chips on FSU isn't going away. The Noles are sixth in the human polls (which could be the subject of another post entirely) and 19th among the computer. No machine has FSU ranked higher than 15th.</p>
<p><b>The humans should listen to the computers on Oregon State.</b> Meanwhile, the chips rightfully have Oregon State ahead of Florida State, while the humans stubbornly put the Beavers back at No. 12 because they didn't start the season highly ranked. And there is really no other reason for the snub -- OSU has beaten what I would consider to be a higher grade of team on average than FSU, and my guess is that Oregon State's one loss (Washington) would beat Florida State's one loss (N.C. State) on a neutral field. The Beavers are ranked eighth by the computers and no lower than 10th by any machine. Maybe Oregon State isn't a Top 10 team right now, but if they're not, neither is Florida State.</p>
<p><b>Tommy Tuberville continues to charm the socks off those computers.</b> The chips can't get enough of Texas Tech, which is still ranked 18th by the computers despite the loss to Texas. Compare that to the human polls, one of which doesn't rank the Red Raiders at all and another that has Tech at 25th. Only one computer poll (Colley Matrix) has Texas Tech unranked; every other machine puts the Raiders at least in the Top 20.</p>
<p><b>The BCS busters are out.</b> With Boise State's loss to San Diego State, all hope for the non-AQs to crash the big-money games is out of the question. Louisiana Tech is probably not going to make it into the Top 12, particularly not with the computers despising them, and it's going to be hard for the Bulldogs to catch up with Nebraska and end up higher than No. 16, which is the only other way to get an auto-bid. I suppose it's not entirely impossible for Louisiana Tech to do it, but the odds of it happening are almost not worth mentioning. It is nice to see Toledo get a little bit of credit at No. 15 overall.</p>
<p><b>Mississippi State holds on.</b> Even with the loss to Texas A&M, the Bulldogs managed to remain in the Top 25 in most of the computers, giving them another week in the overall standings. With State still on board, fully half of the SEC's roster is in the BCS Top 25. Of course, Mississippi State still has to play at LSU, which could knock them out of the rankings if the Tigers prevail, but there are games against Arkansas and at Ole Miss after that. If they can win enough, a boost from the humans might be enough to keep them around.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/11/5/3601816/bcs-standings-week-11-computer-florida-state-bcs-bustersBrandon Larrabee2012-11-04T22:39:09-05:002012-11-04T22:39:09-05:00BCS and SEC Bowl Projections
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<figcaption>Scott Olmos-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>For now, it looks like the Dawgs will take the Tide's place in the New Orleans postseason game. But nothing is certain until all the games are played</p> <p>There's still a bit of volatility surrounding the BCS this season, as we're getting to the part of the season where three or four teams are inevitably going to go undefeated but never do. And as those upsets happen -- or near upsets, which helped Oregon make the predicted move past Notre Dame this weekend -- and rejigger the rankings, the bowl projects have to be adjusted as well. What is remarkable is that there are as many as seven teams that you see recurring over and over as we get closer to selection day.</p>
<p>Remember, this is an attempt to project how the bowls would end up <i>if the season ended today</i>; other than assuming that the highest-ranked team will win its conference and/or division, we try to keep everything else as is. Teams that have an automatic bid to a certain game are italicized.</p>
<p><b>BCS National Championship Game:</b> <i>Alabama</i> vs. <i>Kansas State</i><br><b>Fiesta:</b> Oklahoma vs. Oregon State<br><b>Orange:</b> <i>Florida State</i> vs. Louisville<br><b>Rose:</b> <i>Oregon</i> vs. <i>Nebraska</i><br><b>Sugar:</b> Notre Dame vs. Georgia</p>
<p>We might be waiting another week or two, at least, to see Oregon move past Kansas State. It's not terribly likely to happen this week, as Oregon travels to awful Cal and Kansas State takes on a decent TCU outfit in Fort Worth. Especially when take into account that the computers can't see margin of victory, anything short of a TCU upset is likely to keep the Wildcats ahead of the Ducks, given their current margin in the standings.</p>
<p>I haven't changed too much here from last week, though I did move Oregon State into the Fiesta ahead of Stanford. The reason I did that is because of the second (and little-noticed) aspect of the at-large requirement for BCS bowls, which stipulates that any team for at-large berth has to have at least nine wins. I'm not sure Stanford can get there; the Cardinal are 7-1 with remaining games against Oregon State, at Oregon and at UCLA. But Oregon State is almost a mortal lock to get to nine; after the trip to Stanford, they get Cal, Oregon and Nicholls State at home.</p>
<p>There have been some rumblings that <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/20818074/power-poll-its-all-about-lining-up-oregonbama-for-bcs-title-right">the Fiesta Bowl might be interested in Louisville</a>, for reasons that I cannot begin to understand. (The first problem I have with this is that I have no idea what Dodd means by calling it a "trade," scare quotes or none; there are no reasons that the Fiesta Bowl couldn't take Louisville regardless of what the Orange Bowl thinks.) The only thing I can come up with right now is that if an undefeated Kansas State emerges from the Big 12 and doesn't get to the national championship game, it might be interesting to pair them with the only other undefeated team available if you assume, as Dodd and I both do, that the Sugar takes Notre Dame first on the likely bet that the Fiesta won't take an SEC team.</p>
<p>But that's exactly the kind of projections I try to stay away from here if at all possible. We don't know for a fact that Oregon is going to go undefeated, or that Kansas State is going to go undefeated if Oregon does. (Or, for that matter, if Alabama is going to go undefeated, as a Tide loss to either Texas A&M or Georgia in the SEC Championship Game would make all of this moot.)</p>
<p>A couple of words about the Sugar Bowl. First, I still think that the New Orleans bowl snaps up Notre Dame with the first replacement pick, in part because the Irish will travel well to anywhere on the planet and in part because I don't see any reason why the Fiesta would retaliate by picking an SEC team. Business decisions are best not made out of revenge; and if it really mattered to the Fiesta Bowl that much, the Sugar would likely let them have Notre Dame. I think the Fiesta would like to have Notre Dame but wouldn't do anything stupid if they don't get the Irish. They take a nice enough matchup and things go back to the Sugar.</p>
<p>I'm still penciling Georgia in here in part because I think they'll give Alabama a good game. But the record on SEC Championship Game losers getting into the Sugar Bowl during the national title streak is mixed. It happened in 2008-09 (Alabama) and 2009-10 (Florida), but that was when those teams had separated themselves from the league as a whole. At the same time, in 2010-11 (Arkansas), 2007-08 (Georgia) and 2006-07 (LSU), the Sugar Bowl went with teams that had not won their divisions. In those cases, you could at least make a case that each of those teams was clearly superior to the SEC runner-up in that year.</p>
<p>This year seems to be between those two extremes. It would be hard to make the argument that Georgia has shown itself to be clearly better than the likes of LSU, South Carolina and Florida -- at least to the degree that Alabama in 2008 and Florida in 2009 appeared to have done against the comparable teams. On the other hand, it would be hard to make a logical argument that LSU, South Carolina or Florida had done anything to really distinguish themselves from Georgia.</p>
<p>The picture should clear up until and through the SEC title bout. If Georgia plays Alabama close, it will likely get into the Sugar Bowl. If it's a blowout, LSU in particular looks to benefit as long as the Bengals don't collapse.</p>
<p>So if we put Georgia into the Sugar Bowl for now, where does everyone else go?</p>
<p><b>Capital One:</b> LSU<br><b>Cotton:</b> Texas A&M<br><b>Outback:</b> Florida<br><b>Chick-fil-A:</b> South Carolina<br><b>Gator:</b> Mississippi State<br><b>Music City:</b> Tennessee<br><b>Liberty:</b> Ole Miss<br><b>BBVA Compass:</b> Vanderbilt<br><b>Independence:</b> None eligible</p>
<p>Florida did play in Tampa two years ago, so I'm not sure that's enough to "<a href="http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college_uf/2010/12/why-florida-and-penn-state-are-headed-to-the-outback-bowl.html">circulate the inventory</a>" and put the Gators back in the Outback Bowl again, but I think for the first time since I've been doing it that Florida will be available to the Outback. If it's LSU in the Sugar Bowl instead of Georgia, things could change -- but Floria is looking worse and worse as the season goes on and LSU is looking better and better. South Carolina fans get their fondest wish again, though I'm still not sure why so many of my fellow Gamecock fans want to go to a bowl lower in the pecking order.</p>
<p>Nothing else changes too much. The results of the lower-tier bowls could depend on who wins Vanderbilt-Ole Miss. Tennessee could be less attractive to the Music City Bowl if the USS Dooley continues to take on water, but we'll have to see what happens over the next several weeks, especially since the Vols splitting the vs. Missouri-at Vanderbilt leg of the schedule is looking shakier by the week.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/11/4/3601388/bcs-sec-bowl-projections-alabama-kansas-state-oregon-notre-dameBrandon Larrabee2012-11-04T20:42:35-05:002012-11-04T20:42:35-05:00Oregon Moves Up In New BCS Standings
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<figcaption>Steve Dykes</figcaption>
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<p>The Ducks finally have advanced out of the No. 4 hole as they attempt to climb up the rankings.</p> <p>There's some movement in the race for the national championship in <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sbnation.com/2012/11/4/3600592/bcs-rankings-2012-top-25-oregon-alabama-notre-dame">this week's BCS standings</a>:</p>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Alabama</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Kansas State</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Oregon</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Notre Dame</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Georgia</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Florida</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">LSU</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">South Carolina</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Louisville</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Florida State</span></li>
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<p>The SEC still has five of the top ten, as LSU understandably did not fall far after letting a win slip through its fingers last night. No. 15 Texas A&M advanced slightly after smoking No. 21 Mississippi State, and both remaining in the poll gives the standard seven teams in the rankings.</p>
<p>It is both understandable and also ironic that this is the week where Oregon finally moves up out of the No. 4 spot in the standings. With Notre Dame very nearly biting the big one against Pitt and the Ducks finally getting a win over a decent team, it makes perfect sense that Oregon jumps the Fighting Irish. However, this game completely exposed Oregon as not having that great a defense.</p>
<p>It's certainly true that USC has a terrific offense, but Oregon seemed to put up only token resistance to it for much of the game. It's been a popular thing among college football experts who want to sound smart by being contrarian to defend Oregon's defense. The points they use are totally valid, too. Oregon does tend to shut things down early and give up points and yards with the backups when it builds big leads, and the fast pace of the offense means the defense spends more time on the field and allows more total yards. However, this game was close throughout, so the poor stats have nothing to do with third stringers and walkons. The Trojans also passed for nine yards per attempt and rushed for five yards a carry, and that has nothing to do with offensive pace. Oregon's defense lost its, um, defense with this game, which makes the team look more vulnerable despite also looking better with the big win.</p>
<h4><b>1. Alabama</b></h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 7 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 15 Texas A&M, possibly No. 5 Georgia or No. 6 Florida in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>It got really dicey there for a bit, but a flawlessly executed two minute drill saved the Tide's unbeaten record and kept them atop the polls. Only two real hurdles remain. First is this weekend with Johnny Football and Texas A&M, a game which will sew up the West division if the Tide wins. The next would then be the conference championship game against, in all likelihood, Georgia. Even with those to go, it would appear that Bama has passed its largest test until the bowl game.</p>
<h4>2. Kansas State</h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 12 Oklahoma, No. 22 Texas Tech</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 17 Texas</p>
<p>The Wildcats kept on trucking against Oklahoma State, even if they didn't completely salt the game away until late. The big news from this one was <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/36403/collin-klein">Collin Klein</a> got knocked out of the contest. K-State hasn't said anything publicly about the injury, so we don't know what's going on. While backup <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134219/daniel-sams">Daniel Sams</a> finished the game just fine, he's no Klein. It will be interesting to see what happens with this team, particularly if it finishes out undefeated but Klein never returns. Might voters drop KSU behind Notre Dame simply because Klein is gone? It's something we'll have to monitor.</p>
<h4>3. Oregon</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 19 USC</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 11 Oregon State, No. 14 Stanford, No. 19 USC, possibly No. 18 UCLA or No. 19 USC again in the Pac-12 Championship Game</p>
<p>The Ducks finally have something other than "None." in their best win category, but they might not get another crack at the Trojans this year. UCLA is now the outright leader in the South division, though it still has both USC and Stanford yet to go. The encouraging thing for Oregon is that merely playing USC improved its computer rankings noticeably. Stanford and Oregon State are still coming up, and the computers like them more than the humans do. Oregon won't fall below KSU in the human polls as long as it keeps winning, so every boost in the computers is a step closer to being No. 2.</p>
<h4>4. Notre Dame</h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 12 Oklahoma, No. 14 Stanford</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 19 USC</p>
<p>The luck of the Irish kept this team afloat for now, but it's about as solidly in fourth place as it can be. That win over Pitt will keep it above one-loss teams, but it will also keep human voters from putting Notre Dame ahead of any of the three teams above it here. The computers really love the Irish still, but when that only makes up a third of the formula, it won't be enough to make a significant difference.</p>
<h4>5. Georgia</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 6 Florida</p>
<p><b>Loss: </b>No. 8 South Carolina</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents: </b>possibly No. 1 Alabama or No. 7 LSU in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>The Bulldogs are first in line among one-loss teams now, but that doesn't matter a whole heck of a lot right now. Win out and win in Atlanta, and we've got something to talk about. The computers don't really like this team, and the rest of the regular season slate won't certainly impress them. It's possible that even if UGA beats Bama that, if the teams are only one slot different in the human polls, the Tide could still be ahead of the Bulldogs in the BCS formula. But, let's cross that bridge when we come to it.</p>
<h4>6. Florida</h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 7 LSU, No. 8 South Carolina, No. 15 Texas A&M</p>
<p><b>Loss: </b>No. 5 Georgia</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 10 Florida State, possibly No. 1 Alabama or No. 7 LSU in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>The Gators could end up having the best collection of wins if they win out, but the fact that they almost certainly aren't going to Atlanta means they're only title contenders on a technicality right now. If Georgia loses to Auburn (and it won't), then this team can be considered a possibility for the title game if chaos ensues. If not, then this team will disappear from this feature next Sunday.</p>
<h4>9. Louisville</h4>
<p><b>Best Win: </b>None.</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponent:</b> No. 23 Rutgers</p>
<p>The Cardinals actually have fewer good opponents on the slate than Florida State does, but an undefeated AQ conference leader is an undefeated AQ conference leader. If UL does run the table, it will almost certainly be another 2009 Cincinnati situation where the Big East champ doesn't get a spot in the national title game. It could be even more of a parallel if Charlie Strong leaves to take another job.</p>
<h4>10. Florida State</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 13 Clemson</p>
<p><b>Loss:</b> NC State</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 6 Florida</p>
<p>Though FSU has an excellent chance to be a one-loss champ of an AQ conference, it's impossible to take it seriously as a national title contender. Its loss is to an unranked team, it has only two decent opponents on the slate, and it has no hope of playing a marquee team in the ACC title game. Still, a one-loss AQ conference leader is a one-loss AQ conference leader.</p>
<h4>11. Oregon State</h4>
<p><b>Best Win: </b>No. 18 UCLA</p>
<p><b>Loss:</b> Washington</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponent:</b> No. 3 Oregon, No. 14 Stanford, possibly No. 18 UCLA or No. 19 USC again in the Pac-12 Championship Game</p>
<p>The Beavers' bad loss to UW means that they are last in line among the marginal championship contenders, but because they still are capable of becoming a one-loss BCS conference champ, they get to cameo here. OSU needs a <i>lot</i> of chaos to sniff the title game, but it can be an agent of that chaos by taking out Oregon in the Civil War game later this month.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/11/4/3598980/bcd-standings-week-11-oregon-notre-dame-alabama-kansas-stateDavid Wunderlich