Team Speed Kills - Alabama Vs. LSU Preview: THE GAME OF THE CENTURY, EPISODE IIISports are just better in the SEChttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52580/tsk_fav.png2012-11-03T21:30:17-04:00http://www.teamspeedkills.com/rss/stream/33497592012-11-03T21:30:17-04:002012-11-03T21:30:17-04:00Alabama Vs. LSU: That Les Miles Moment
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<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1281775/leswax.gif"><img alt="Leswax_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1281775/leswax_medium.gif"></a> <br>via <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2012/11/3/3596960/alabama-vs-lsu-fake-field-goal">the mothership<br></a></p>
<p>Go over there to see the full animation.<br id="1351992520702"></p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/11/3/3596986/alabama-vs-lsu-les-miles-earBrandon Larrabee2012-11-02T00:43:22-04:002012-11-02T00:43:22-04:00Alabama vs. LSU: Frivolous Notes
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<figcaption>Alex Wong</figcaption>
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<p>Does the game decide president elections, why does Gary Danielson say absurd things and how much is a minute worth?</p> <p>What is it about big games that brings out frivolity? Who knows, but there are a couple of items about THE GAME OF THE CENTURY, Episode III, that caught our eyes Thursday.</p>
<p><b>O-Bama vs. LSU.</b> This one is quirky and slightly interesting, but it seems that the red states are for President Obama and the purple states are for Mitt Romney. Hey, we didn't <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fgameon%2F2012%2F11%2F01%2Falabama-lsu-presidential-election%2F1674675%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teamspeedkills.com%2F2012%2F11%2F2%2F3589128%2Flsu-vs-alabama-preview-sec-west-fun" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">highlight it</a>.</p>
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<p>Over the last seven elections, since 1984, an Alabama victory has preceded (or followed close behind) a Democratic victory. Conversely, an LSU win has meant the same for the Republican Party.</p>
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<p>Which raises an interesting question: Just how much of the Alabama fan base do you really think is pulling for Obama in the election next week? And how many of them would cheer for Alabama anyway even if they knew that this was an actual thing -- as opposed to being a weird coincidence -- and a Tide win would ensure Obama would spend four more years in the White House?</p>
<p><b>Gary Danielson has become a bit of a problem.</b> Not in real life -- in real life, he's just an analyst with a few annoying habits that you and I have to put up with for a few hours each Saturday. But in Perceptionville, Danielson is at least thought of as the kind of guy that says what a good portion of the SEC fan base thinks, which is a problem inasmuch as he says <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fgameon%2F2012%2F11%2F01%2Fgary-danielson-takes-shot-at-notre-dame%2F1675805%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teamspeedkills.com%2F2012%2F11%2F2%2F3589128%2Flsu-vs-alabama-preview-sec-west-fun" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">things like this</a>.</p>
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<p>"My personal tiebreaker is that a conference championship game has to stand for something," says Danielson, who'll call CBS' Alabama-LSU on Saturday (8 p.m. ET). "I would penalize Notre Dame for not playing in a conference championship. So after Alabama, my first nod would be to Oregon, since its conference has earned respect, then Kansas State and only then Notre Dame."</p>
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<p>Of course, as Mengus22 <a href="http://twitter.com/Mengus22/status/264173023970598912">pointed out on Twitter</a>, it's not that Danielson believes you should actually have to win the conference championship game if you get there. Simply playing in it makes you better than Notre Dame, for reasons that Danielson doesn't bother to explain and probably wouldn't make any sense if he did. But, wait, the SEC's semiofficial mouthpiece isn't done yet.</p>
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<p>Actually, says Danielson, even if Alabama had one loss he might put the Crimson Tide in the BCS title game over undefeated teams: "You'd have to put them in the discussion, because they've earned it given what the conference has accomplished."</p>
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<p>SO LET'S DO ANOTHER REMATCH! In fact, why don't we just cancel all the other conferences and just have an SEC season every year and give out the crystal football! (Which actually might make sense the way things have gone the last few years, but I digress.)</p>
<p>The point here is that I am by definition an SEC homer -- and I think Danielson is wildly wrong about this. And his saying it, and on a national teleconference, contributes to the idea that we in the SEC are arrogant enough to think that our champion should be in the national championship game no matter what.</p>
<p>And maybe I'm in the minority on this one, but I actually don't think that's the case. I think that SEC teams should earn their way to the BCS the same way that every other team does. Our teams have been doing it every year since 2006, and it's turned out pretty well for almost seven seasons now. If Alabama goes undefeated through the Georgia Dome, I absolutely think they should play for it all in Miami at the end of the season.</p>
<p>But you don't need faulty logic and ridiculous arguments to say that. And when someone who's affiliated with our conference by even a couple of degrees of separation makes those arguments, it doesn't help the SEC. It might help Gary Danielson pander to some of the conference's fans, but I think most of us aren't swayed by that.</p>
<p><b>We could almost solve the national debt this way.</b> As of this writing, the top ticket <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stubhub.com%2Flsu-football-tickets%2Flsu-vs-alabama-11-3-2012-4008850%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teamspeedkills.com%2F2012%2F11%2F2%2F3589128%2Flsu-vs-alabama-preview-sec-west-fun" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">on StubHub</a> was going for $1,500. That's $25 a minute of game time or roughly 42 cents a second.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/11/2/3589128/lsu-vs-alabama-preview-sec-west-funBrandon Larrabee2012-11-01T17:16:48-04:002012-11-01T17:16:48-04:00Alabama vs. LSU: Winning the West (Mostly)
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<figcaption>Brett Davis-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>This weekend's game goes a long way toward deciding the division champion. But there are still paths to victory for some of the other teams in the SEC West</p> <p>Expect to hear a lot of talk that the game this weekend between Alabama and LSU will decide who represents the SEC West in the SEC Championship Game in December. And while that's true to an extent -- the winner will be the prohibit favorite to capture the division title -- it's not entirely so. There are still ways that as many as five of the seven teams in the SEC West could win the division, though some of them are improbable. We'll deal with the easiest and least convoluted ways for each team to make it to Atlanta; the SEC's tiebreaking procedures are so byzantine that we could spend months laying out each way each team could win the division.</p>
<h4>ALABAMA</h4>
<p>This is pretty easy: As long as the Tide wins out, they will win the SEC West. And a win on Saturday would actually give them room to split their remaining games, against Texas A&M and Auburn, and still head to the Georgia Dome after the regular season; Alabama holds the tiebreaker against Mississippi State, the only other team in the SEC West with one loss.</p>
<h4>LSU</h4>
<p>The easiest way for LSU to get in is the same as Alabama: Win out. There are other routes even if the Tigers lose on Saturday, but they involve Alabama losing to A&M (possible) and Auburn (please stop laughing) while A&M wins out to set up a three-team tie with two losses. Mathematically, Saturday is not an elimination game for the Bengals, but it's all but one for practical purposes.</p>
<h4>MISSISSIPPI STATE</h4>
<p>This is where teams start to need a lot of help. The Bulldogs need to win out and get two Alabama losses in just about any combination. It's hard if not impossible to find a tiebreaker scenario that allows the Western Division Bulldogs to overcome their loss to Alabama, so they need two losses by the Tide. They are still the team outside of Alabama and LSU best positioned to get to Atlanta -- if they can win.</p>
<h4>TEXAS A&M</h4>
<p>The Aggies are behind the eight ball because of their losses to Florida and (more importantly) LSU. They need to win out, which includes knocking off Alabama <strike>when the Tide comes to College Station</strike> in Tuscaloosa. Best of luck with that one, Aggies. TAMU also needs Alabama to pick up another loss somewhere and two LSU losses. So if the Bengals drop Bama this weekend, A&M needs two members of LSU's season-ending slate -- Mississippi State, Ole Miss or Arkansas -- to upset LSU.</p>
<h4>OLE MISS</h4>
<p>The Rebels are technically still alive, with only two losses in conference play so far. They would likely need to win out -- which means defeating Georgia in Athens, Vanderbilt at home, LSU in Baton Rouge and then the Egg Bowl in Oxford -- and then get some help. Alabama would need to lose the remainder of its games; it's difficult to overcome the tiebreaker Alabama holds. The Rebels also need Texas A&M to lose at least once.</p>
<h4>ARKANSAS</h4>
<p>Eliminated</p>
<h4>AUBURN</h4>
<p>Eliminated</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/11/1/3587182/alabama-vs-lsu-preview-sec-westBrandon Larrabee2012-10-31T14:57:31-04:002012-10-31T14:57:31-04:00Will Death Valley Give LSU the Edge?
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<figcaption>Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>Tiger Stadium is famous for being a tough place to play, but how big a difference has it been this year?</p> <p>According to Les Miles, Tiger Stadium is where opponents' dreams go to die. As long as you narrow the definition of "dreams" to "hopes of winning", this has been true at night. Miles has only lost one night home game in his tenure in Baton Rouge.</p>
<p>Does that still hold this year? Do the Tigers play noticeably better at home than on the road? The lazy answer is a simple yes. Their best game was the 41-3 drubbing of Washington at home, and their worst game was their 12-10 escape against Auburn on the road. They lost to Florida on the road but beat South Carolina at home. <i>Ipso facto</i>, LSU plays better at home. Done and done.</p>
<p>Well, I'm not satisfied with the lazy answer. I decided to compare LSU's performance against non-cupcakes versus what its opponents have done against non-cupcakes. The tables here show the difference between what happened in LSU's games versus the season averages for these teams against BCS AQ conference teams. In short, it's all BCS AQ vs. BCS AQ action.</p>
<p>First up is offense:</p>
<table align="center" border="1"><tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;">
<td>Opponent</td>
<td>Site</td>
<td>YPC</td>
<td>Comp Pct.</td>
<td>Yds/Att.</td>
<td>Pass Eff.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Washington</td>
<td>Home</td>
<td>-0.26</td>
<td>+10.4%</td>
<td>+3.02</td>
<td>+40.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>Road</td>
<td>-1.07</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>-1.61</td>
<td>-41.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Florida</td>
<td>Road</td>
<td>-1.36</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>+0.84</td>
<td>-3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>South Carolina</td>
<td>Home</td>
<td>+1.75</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
<td>-0.47</td>
<td>-16.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas A&M</td>
<td>Road</td>
<td>+1.12</td>
<td>-15.5%</td>
<td>-3.80</td>
<td>-41.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<p>Here we can see that Washington really was Zach Mettenberger's best game relative to the opponent's average defensive performance. He was also pretty miserable against Auburn and Texas A&M, both road games. His performance against South Carolina was just a bit under expected in yards per attempt and passing efficiency, even if his completion percentage was down. The game against Florida looks from here like his second best, but it's skewed by a single 56-yard completion. Factor that out, and it's between his South Carolina and Auburn/A&M performances (though much closer to South Carolina). Mettenberger, it seems, does do better at home.</p>
<p>No such pattern emerges in respect to the rushing game. The two best games are far and away the most recent ones, which, not coincidentally, are the two in which Jeremy Hill has seen significant carries. The home/road narrative simply doesn't apply. The one about Hill rejuvenating the running attack, however, does.</p>
<p>On to defense:</p>
<table border="1" align="center"><tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;">
<td>Opponent</td>
<td>Site</td>
<td>YPC</td>
<td>Comp Pct.</td>
<td>Yds/Att.</td>
<td>Pass Eff.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Washington</td>
<td>Home</td>
<td>-2.46</td>
<td>-9.8%</td>
<td>-0.91</td>
<td>-20.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>Road</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
<td>+0.7%</td>
<td>-2.39</td>
<td>-33.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Florida</td>
<td>Road</td>
<td>-1.21</td>
<td>+1.4%</td>
<td>-2.04</td>
<td>-27.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>South Carolina</td>
<td>Home</td>
<td>-2.17</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
<td>-2.51</td>
<td>-36.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas A&M</td>
<td>Road</td>
<td>-2.11</td>
<td>-14.5%</td>
<td>-2.76</td>
<td>-55.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>On the passing defense front, no home/road split pattern emerges. Washington did fairly well compared to the other four teams here, but easily the best job the defense did was against A&M in College Station. Against South Carolina at home was its second best, but then Auburn on the road was its third best.</p>
<p>With the rushing defense, again, there's no real pattern. Florida is the only team that really stands out as having a good rushing day, and yes it was a road game. What about Auburn, you say? Well, those Tigers are <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/911/team/offense/split22/category01/sort01.html">downright miserable at running</a>, and they fared poorly against LSU. There's simply not much room to undercut Auburn's season average against BCS AQ teams. The other three teams here did about equally as bad running the ball on the Tigers' defense, so again, no wide home/road split is here.</p>
<p>Having looked at all of this, any juice that the Tigers will get from playing at home will likely be in the play of Mettenberger. But what does that even mean? He had one really good game against a mediocre Pac-12 team that was playing a long way from home. Against the SEC competition, in nearly every category I looked at he was below what the opponents give up on average against BCS AQ teams.</p>
<p>For Mettenberger just putting up what Alabama allows on average would be a good game, and that presents a problem. I used Alabama's season averages against BCS AQ schools and Mettenberger's average attempts per game against BCS AQ competition (24.8, rounded to 25) to project a line for him. Rounding to the nearest whole number, he'd go 12-for-25 (48.0%) for 132 yards (5.28 YPA), 0 TDs, 2 INTs, and a passing efficiency of 76.4. I don't think that line is good enough to get LSU a win. It's far too many attempts, for one, and that many turnovers would be big trouble.</p>
<p>Of course, five games is not that big a sample size to draw from. LSU, like every team, doesn't stay even at the averages across games. Sometimes they're better; sometimes they're worse. The Tigers definitely need a game where they come out better, and playing at home probably helps that more than playing on the road would. With that said, little about this season so far suggests that we should see a dramatically better performance this weekend than past weekends from them solely because they're playing at home.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/31/3581246/lsu-alabama-death-valley-tiger-stadium-nightDavid Wunderlich