Team Speed Kills - Week 9 BCS Standings: Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Oregon and Everyone ElseSports are just better in the SEChttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52580/tsk_fav.png2012-10-28T23:40:00-04:00http://www.teamspeedkills.com/rss/stream/33334072012-10-28T23:40:00-04:002012-10-28T23:40:00-04:00Inside the Rankings
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XrL-nqOK4NBm8pZFWSoV_c3H00k=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/2224001/154481593.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Otto Kitsinger III</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Also: The chips do like the Pac-12, but the odds for a Boise State BCS game are still pretty long</p> <p><b>Oregon could pass Notre Dame as soon as next week. Kansas State might take longer.</b> It looks very likely that the Ducks will be ahead of the Irish if both win next week. The difference between the two is only .0011 right now. Oregon goes to Los Angeles this weekend to play Southern Cal while Notre Dame has a home game with Pitt. The humans will likely continue to have Oregon ahead of Notre Dame, so all the Ducks need is to narrow the margin in the computers a bit. The difference between Southern Cal and Pitt might just do it. But Kansas State is considerably further ahead of Oregon and has a challenging enough game against Oklahoma State, a team that broke into the BCS standings again this week.</p>
<p><b>BCS busters might be busted.</b> Ohio's loss to Miami (OH) over the weekend pretty much took out whatever small chance the Bobcats had of crashing the parties. With Louisiana Tech just now cracking the Top 25 and still low in the computers, the Bulldogs are probably too far out of things to make one of the big-money games. That leaves Boise State, which still faces an uphill climb to get into a BCS bowl. We remind you of the rules for a mid-major team to make it to the BCS, because the talking heads tend to short-hand them and cause confusion. <a href="http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597">From the rules</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><b> A.</b> Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, <i>or</i>, <br><b>B.</b> Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The first is going to be very hard. Boise is 19th, and the coaches (17) and computers (23) both have them a fair stretch from the Top 12. Of their last four games, only two are against teams that hold winning records right now: San Diego State (6-3) and Nevada (6-3). So the schedule does them no favors.</p>
<p>Nor does Louisville being ranked No. 10 right now -- the Big East champions always used to be a fair chance to make the second way into the BCS work if the Broncos could crack the Top 16. If the ACC Atlantic champion loses to its SEC rival, it could end up as low as No. 17. If whoever wins the demolition derby that is the ACC Coastal then wins it "all" in the ACC Championship Game, it's a near certainty that No. 16 is all the Broncos will need.</p>
<p>The best hopes still rest with the B1G, but even that presents some problems. Take Nebraska, the only ranked B1G team in the BCS. (I'll pause to let you finish laughing at that.) Wins against Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin in the B1GCG might give the No. 20 Huskers a chance to get to No. 16 or above and end up higher than Boise. And Wisconsin still faces Penn State, Ohio State and (likely) Nebraska in the B1GCG. Could that get them to No. 16 if they win? Probably not. But it's anybody's guess. The Broncos are going to have to wait until the end of the season to know for sure.</p>
<p><b>Movin' on up.</b> There are a number of teams that made impressive moves up the board this week, and a couple of them are in the SEC. Georgia went from No. 10 to No. 6 after defeating Florida. (The counterpoint to that one, of course, is that Florida fell from No. 2 to No. 7.) South Carolina clocks in at No. 8 after being No. 13 the week before. Louisville leaped six spots to end up at No. 10 this time. Clemson moved up five spots to land at No. 13. Texas A&M is up four at No. 16. Nebraska wasn't even ranked last week and now stands at No. 20.</p>
<p><b>ACC: DOES NOT COMPUTE.</b> The computers really, really don't like what few ACC teams are getting into the rankings, at least not in comparison to the humans. Florida State, which gets a hefty boost from the humans' No. 7 consensus ranking, is only at No. 9 in the rankings because the computers despise the Seminoles. The computer average is No. 21; they're not even ranked in the Top 25 by Jeff Sagarin's machine, and Colley Matrix's No. 12 ranking is the only one that has FSU in the Top 15. Clemson is no better; ranked No. 9 by the humans, they tie Florida State for 21st in the computers and are unranked by two machines (Sagarin and Kenneth Massey).</p>
<p><b>Chips heart Pac-12 (mostly).</b> On the other hand, the machines seem to have very few problems with the westernmost conference. Oregon State fell to 13th among the human voters after their first loss, but the computers were more kind; the Beavers stayed at No. 11 overall largely because the chips peg them at No. 8. Only two computers -- Sagarin and Richard Billingsley -- leave Oregon State out of the Top 10. Stanford is No. 14 or No. 15, depending on the poll, with voters; the Cardinal are ranked No. 11 among the computers.</p>
<p>The biggest difference involves Arizona. The Wildcats aren't ranked in either human poll but are 14th in the computers, pushing them all the way to No. 22 overall. <i>None</i> of the computers leave Arizona out, and only one (Peter Wolfe) leaves them outside the Top 15. The only Pac-12 teams exempt from this are obviously Oregon and, oddly enough, Southern Cal. The Trojans are only 19th in the computers, which which isn't that far behind the No. 16 and No. 17 spots they hold in the human polls.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/28/3569458/bcs-rankings-oregon-notre-dame-kansas-state-acc-pac-12Brandon Larrabee2012-10-28T22:25:14-04:002012-10-28T22:25:14-04:00BCS and SEC Bowl Projections: Sugar Bowl Decisions
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GTIj9l1M8zETghJjltbqhUlNfDc=/0x96:4000x2763/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/2221427/154847111.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tony Medina</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the season ended today, the BCS would still put Alabama and Kansas State in the national title game. But after that, things would get a little trickier</p> <p>The third edition of the <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/28/3568110/bcd-standings-week-9-alabama-kansas-state-notre-dame-oregon">BCS standings</a> doesn't change too terribly much in terms of the BCS National Championship Game in our projections so far, but every little shuffle sparks changes lower down the selection order. The Fiesta Bowl and the Sugar are now totally different and with 100 percent less Lane Kiffin.</p>
<p>Remember, this is an attempt to project how the bowls would end up <i>if the season ended today</i>; other than assuming that the highest-ranked team will win its conference and/or division, we try to keep everything else as is. Teams that have an automatic bid to a certain game are italicized.</p>
<p><b>BCS National Championship Game:</b> <i>Alabama</i> vs. <i>Kansas State</i><br><b>Fiesta:</b> Oklahoma vs. Stanford<br><b>Orange:</b> <i>Florida State</i> vs. Louisville<br><b>Rose:</b> <i>Oregon</i> vs. <i>Nebraska</i><br><b>Sugar:</b> Notre Dame vs. Georgia</p>
<p>I think that two bowls have some interesting decisions to make unless the standings go through a major shakeup between now and the end of the season. The exceptions are the Rose Bowl, with its senior citizen fan base demanding B1G vs. Pac-12, and the Orange Bowl, which goes last in the at-large selection process and so will be stuck with the Big East Champion.</p>
<p>The first interesting pick would fall to the Sugar, given that Alabama would go to the BCS National Championship as the No. 1 team. Taking Notre Dame might be a little bit of a gamble for the New Orleans bowl -- they're the traditional home of SEC teams, and grabbing the Irish could end up sending an SEC team to the desert. But the Sugar could also calculate, and I think correctly, that the Fiesta will instead take its replacement pick and first at-large selection to set up two fan bases that are familiar with the bowl and still make a great match-up. There might be some concerns about Stanford making the same trip twice in a row, but I don't think they would be enough to keep the Cardinal out.</p>
<p>Then the choice moves back to the Sugar, which quickly removes Louisville from its choices and looks at the remaining SEC teams eligible to be at-large. Going into the SEC Championship Game, my guess is they run in this order: Georgia, Florida, LSU, South Carolina. The question is how badly Georgia gets beaten in Atlanta. If it's a close loss, the Dawgs are probably an easy choice for the Sugar. If it's not so close, then things get more intriguing. Florida, a re-energized fan base? LSU, the de facto home team? South Carolina, a Cinderella to take on Notre Dame and a passionate fan base that generally travels pretty well?</p>
<p>For now, we'll go with UGA. But if things get ugly in Atlanta, the Sugar Bowl might be a game worth watching. While the Orange takes Louisville and hopes to beat the NCIS rerun that's on CBS that night.</p>
<p>That kicks LSU, Florida and South Carolina down to the ranks of the other SEC bowls, which are more than happy to welcome likely Top 10 commodities to their stadiums. How does that fall?</p>
<p><b>Capital One:</b> Florida<br><b>Cotton:</b> LSU<br><b>Outback:</b> South Carolina<br><b>Chick-fil-A:</b> Texas A&M<br><b>Gator:</b> Mississippi State<br><b>Music City:</b> Tennessee<br><b>Liberty:</b> Ole Miss<br><b>BBVA Compass:</b> Vanderbilt<br><b>Independence:</b> None eligible</p>
<p>The guess here is that Vanderbilt defeats Kentucky and Wake Forest -- neither improbable victories -- but loses at Ole Miss, putting both of them in bowls. I'm still leaning toward Tennessee over Missouri in their game, which is likely to decide the final bowl spot for the SEC, but the Vols will probably get the Music City over the Rebels and Commodores.</p>
<p>I also moved LSU into the Cotton Bowl ahead of Texas A&M, because I think the Capital One is more likely to take Florida if they're available -- I've had them in the Sugar Bowl until now -- and the Cotton would take a Top 10 LSU team over TAMU. The Outback might take Texas A&M over South Carolina, because you can never count the Outback out of doing anything ridiculous, but we'll use common sense and the traditional SEC East factor for the moment.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/28/3569004/bcs-bowl-projections-alabama-kansas-state-oregon-notre-dameBrandon Larrabee2012-10-28T20:42:31-04:002012-10-28T20:42:31-04:00Four Teams Create Separation in BCS Standings
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IEG8prm-ERixom-xYxHtPv7qo9g=/28x0:3958x2620/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/2213747/154847751.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kevin C. Cox</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Oregon lead the new BCS standings, and together they hold the keys to chaos.</p> <p>There's a four-team race for the national championship in <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2012/10/28/3568826/bcs-rankings-2012-top-25-kansas-state-oregon-notre-dame">this week's edition of the BCS standings</a>:</p>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Alabama</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Kansas State</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Notre Dame</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Oregon</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">LSU</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Georgia</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Florida</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">South Carolina</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Florida State</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Louisville</span></li>
</ol>
<p>The SEC has a whopping five of the top ten, including the highest ranked undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams. No. 15 Mississippi State and No. 16 Texas A&M give the conference its customary seven teams in the top 25.</p>
<p>Things are getting quite interesting at the top, with several teams having a legitimate chance of finishing undefeated. Kansas State's toughest tests are behind it, with Texas the only ranked team (and a marginally ranked team, at that) left on the slate. The same arguably goes for Notre Dame, depending on how you view USC and Oklahoma. Alabama's and Oregon's are still yet to come, so we can't pencil in a four-team logjam just yet. If we do end up with one, we know the college football gods have a big sense of humor given that the four-team playoff just got approved this year.</p>
<h4><b>1. Alabama</b></h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 15 Mississippi State</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 5 LSU, No. 16 Texas A&M, possibly No. 6 Georgia, No. 7 Florida, or No. 8 South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>Bama should be glad for getting the win over MSU this weekend, because Michigan's loss to Nebraska would have left the Tide without a win over a ranked team otherwise. The huge game against LSU is this weekend, followed by a potential let down game against Texas A&M the week after. Alabama hasn't been tried much, but this three-week stretch is as trying as it gets for them in 2012.</p>
<h4>2. Kansas State</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 12 Oklahoma, No. 18 Texas Tech, No. 21 West Virginia</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 23 Texas, 24 Oklahoma State</p>
<p>The Wildcats have just about sewn up the Big 12, and it's not even November yet. Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas fill up the remaining slate, and there's not a team among them that looks on Kansas State's level. The only big question left with this team is whether voters will punish it for not having a conference championship game. That factor would come into play if it had to go head-to-head against an undefeated Oregon team for No. 2 behind Alabama. I don't know the answer, either.</p>
<h4>3. Notre Dame</h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 12 Oklahoma, No. 14 Stanford</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 17 USC</p>
<p>It's hard to argue the idea that Notre Dame will be stuck rooting for others to lose. Michigan and Michigan State having disappointing years really hurts the Fighting Irish's strength of schedule, and it stands to dip again even more if Oregon beats USC a time or two. This team must root like crazy for Michigan to come back and somehow win the Big Ten and, more importantly, for someone to knock off two of the other three undefeated teams.</p>
<h4>4. Oregon</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> None.</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 11 Oregon State, No. 14 Stanford, No. 17 USC, No. 22 Arizona, possibly No. 17 USC again in the Pac-12 Championship Game</p>
<p>This was a bad weekend for Oregon's national championship hopes. Oregon State and USC both lost to inferior teams, something that will hurt the Ducks' strength of schedule. The USC loss stings more, because two more Oregon wins over the Trojans could very well put them outside the final polls. At that point, all an undefeated Oregon team would have to stand on is wins over Stanford, Oregon State, and maybe Arizona (if those Wildcats remain in the polls). That's not going to be enough to even make it to third, I don't think.</p>
<h4>5. LSU</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 8 South Carolina, No. 16 Texas A&M</p>
<p><b>Loss:</b> No. 7 Florida</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 1 Alabama, No. 15 Mississippi State, possibly No. 6 Georgia, No. 7 Florida, or No. 8 South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>On a weekend when four top ten teams lost, the Tigers had a bye. Pretty good timing, no? Of course, the best timing of all with this off week is that it came the week before the showdown with the Crimson Tide. If the Tigers pull that one off, then we can consider them a real national championship contender again. If they don't, then we say goodbye to them for good from the title watch perspective.</p>
<h4>6. Georgia</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 7 Florida</p>
<p><b>Loss: </b>No. 8 South Carolina</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents: </b>possibly No. 1 Alabama, No. 5 LSU, or No. 15 Mississippi State in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>UGA vanquished the hated Gators and put themselves in the drivers' seat for the East. The good news is that they only have Ole Miss, Auburn, Georgia Southern, and Georgia Tech between them and 11-1. The bad news is that they only had two ranked teams on the schedule and went 1-1 against them. Winning the SEC will take a team far, but the bad loss to South Carolina (and it was a <i>bad</i> loss) sticks out as a big missed opportunity.</p>
<h4>7. Florida</h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 5 LSU, No. 8 South Carolina, No. 16 Texas A&M</p>
<p><b>Loss: </b>No. 6 Georgia</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 8 Florida State, possibly No. 1 Alabama, No. 5 LSU, or No. 15 Mississippi State in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>Anyone who has watched this team closely knows it's not a real national title contender, so it really was only a matter of time before it took a loss. Florida technically is still alive to win everything it could win before Saturday, but it will need a lot of dominoes to fall its way (starting with an improbable Ole Miss win over Georgia this coming weekend).</p>
<h4>8. South Carolina</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 6 Georgia</p>
<p><b>Losses:</b> No. 5 LSU, No. 7 Florida</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 13 Clemson, possibly No. 1 Alabama, No. 5 LSU, or No. 15 Mississippi State in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>I mention this team only for two reasons. First, I feel so incredibly bad for <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116171/marcus-lattimore" class="sbn-auto-link">Marcus Lattimore</a>. He's by all accounts a great person on top of being a great player, so it's hard to see someone taken out by such a catastrophic injury. Second, I kind of feel obligated to mention the next two teams down the list.</p>
<h4>9. Florida State</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 13 Clemson</p>
<p><b>Loss:</b> NC State</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 7 Florida</p>
<p>Though FSU has an excellent chance to be a one-loss champ of an AQ conference, it's impossible to take it seriously as a national title contender. Its loss is to an unranked team, it has only two decent opponents on the slate, and it has no hope of playing a marquee team in the ACC title game. Still, a one-loss AQ conference leader is a one-loss AQ conference leader.</p>
<h4>10. Louisville</h4>
<p><b>Best Win: </b>None</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponent:</b> None</p>
<p>The Cardinals actually have fewer good opponents on the slate than Florida State does, but an undefeated AQ conference leader is an undefeated AQ conference leader. If UL does run the table, it will almost certainly be another 2009 Cincinnati situation where the Big East champ doesn't get a spot in the national title game. It could be even more of a parallel if Charlie Strong leaves to take another job.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/28/3568110/bcd-standings-week-9-alabama-kansas-state-notre-dame-oregonDavid Wunderlich