Team Speed Kills - Georgia-Florida: Battle for the SEC EastSports are just better in the SEChttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52580/tsk_fav.png2012-10-27T15:04:06-04:00http://www.teamspeedkills.com/rss/stream/33089172012-10-27T15:04:06-04:002012-10-27T15:04:06-04:00Florida vs. Georgia: The pick
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<figcaption>Rob Foldy-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>The last thing to think about before kickoff: How will Georgia move the ball?</p> <p><i><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/florida-gators">Florida Gators</a> vs. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/georgia-bulldogs">Georgia Bulldogs</a>, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS</i></p>
<p>We've spent a lot of time previewing the <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/23/3544876/georgia-florida-battle-for-the-sec-east">World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party</a> this week, so much so that I'm not sure there's that much more to say. It comes down to a few things -- a more offensive team in Georgia vs. a more defensive team in Florida, recent history vs. more recent history and a team that's looked iffy but hasn't been challenged much vs. a team that's beaten even its more difficult opponents.</p>
<p>How does Georgia respond in a game like this? We really don't know. The only game against a highly regarded team was the 35-7 demolition at South Carolina, and that game was really over by the end of the first quarter. Assuming that Georgia can actually avoid that kind of early implosion in Jacksonville, it's not inconceivable that the Dawgs could win this one.</p>
<p>But Florida has shown how it reacts to games like this -- by shutting down the opponent's offense and, if need be, adding in some special-teams work to clinch the victory. I'm just not sure that Georgia can move the ball enough against that defense to win the game. Florida's defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in rushing defense, passing efficiency defense, total defense and scoring defense. It might not always be pretty, but Florida always wins the game.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Florida should be able -- should be able -- to move the ball enough against the Georgia defense. The Florida offense hasn't been that great this year. But the rushing offense is able to generate 212.7 yards per game, and that will offset a lot from a less-than-overwhelming passing game.</p>
<p>That's enough to give the edge to Florida in this one. The SEC East title goes to Gainesville for the first time since 2009.</p>
<p><i>Florida 24, Georgia 14</i></p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/27/3563592/florida-vs-georgia-preview-worlds-largest-outdoor-cocktail-party-tv-timeBrandon Larrabee2012-10-26T09:01:05-04:002012-10-26T09:01:05-04:00Florida Vs. Georgia: 'Big Game' Mark Richt
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<figcaption>Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>A selective look at some of the top games the Bulldogs have played under their current head coach, and how he got the reputation that he might not fare so well when the stakes are high</p> <p>If there's one thing that's powered the on-again, off-again (and currently off) hot seat talk that has surrounded Mark Richt in recent years, it's his reputation for being unable to win the "big games." (The 6-7 record in 2010 clearly didn't help matters, but we're setting that aside for the moment.) This is a guy who's beat Florida three times since he came to Athens in 2001, has lost three straight to South Carolina and has lost his last two bowl games.</p>
<p>That talk is likely to take center-stage we get closer to the World's Largest Cocktail Party, and you might even notice some pundits building their predictions in part around the idea. And as with all conventional wisdom, there's a kernel of truth to this. But there's also a lot of short-term amnesia going on among those who are convinced that Richt just can't hack it when the stakes are high.</p>
<p>Let's take a look at some of the biggest games in Richt's tenure. What exactly marks a "big game" is subjective; you might differ on exactly which games I pulled out. For the most part, I stuck with rivalry games, games against highly-ranked teams (particularly when the Dawgs were also ranked), SEC championship games and bowl games.</p>
<h4>Oct. 6, 2001: Georgia 26, Tennessee 24</h4>
<p>It was Mark Richt's first road game. Even though Georgia got outgained by Tennessee, a touchdown in the closing moments of the game gave the Dawgs the win. This was where Larry Munson's famous "<a href="http://espn.go.com/colleges/georgia/story/_/id/7265463/georgia-bulldogs-lore-includes-hobnail-boot-thanks-larry-munson">hobnail boot</a>" line comes from. Tennessee would go on to win the SEC East, but then lose in the conference championship game, something a Gamecock fan hoping for a trip to the Capital One Bowl that year might remember for knocking each division team down a peg.</p>
<h4>Dec. 28, 2001: Boston College 20, Georgia 16 (Music City Bowl)</h4>
<p>Richt lost his first bowl game at Georgia, as BC scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter to close out the Dawgs. Richt's first team finished with an 8-4 record.</p>
<h4>Sept. 14, 2002: Georgia 13, South Carolina 7</h4>
<p>After two consecutive losses to the Gamecocks, Georgia fans were ready for some revenge. They got it in 2002, in a sloppy game that featured David Pollack's end zone, never-airborne interception that remains one of the greatest (and most heartbreaking) plays I've ever seen.</p>
<h4>Nov. 2, 2002: Florida 20, Georgia 13</h4>
<p>This has to be one of the most painful games of the Mark Richt Era. The Bulldogs stuffed the Gators for just 42 yards rushing, but a fourth-quarter touchdown pass and two-point conversion turned a 13-12 Georgia lead into a 20-13 defeat. It marked the first and only loss of the year for the Bulldogs and would end up costing them a shot at playing for the national championship.</p>
<h4>Dec. 7, 2002: Georgia 30, Arkansas 3 (SEC Championship Game)<br>
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<p>Arkansas technically wasn't supposed to be in this game -- they didn't win the SEC West, but Alabama was on probation and the Hogs won all the tiebreakers in a three-way deadlock. (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEC_Championship_Game#cite_note-9">via</a>) It showed. Georgia scored 17 points in the first quarter and never looked back as the game became a rout. It was the first conference championship for the Dawgs in 20 years.</p>
<h4>Jan. 1, 2003: Georgia 26, Florida State 13 (Sugar Bowl)</h4>
<p>A classic teacher-vs.-pupil game, as Richt faced off with mentor Bobby Bowden. A pick-six by Bruce Thornton gave Georgia a lead in the second quarter and they held it to give Richt his first bowl win.</p>
<h4>Sept. 20, 2003: LSU 17, Georgia 10<br>Dec. 6, 2003: LSU 34, Georgia 13 (SEC Championship Game)</h4>
<p>The Bayou Bengals were headed for a national championship, and Georgia's two attempts to derail that came up short. Nothing to be ashamed of, of course. Georgia did markedly better, though, in the first game -- when less could be assumed to be on the line than in the SEC title bout.</p>
<h4>Jan. 1, 2004: Georgia 34, Purdue 27 -- OT (Outback Bowl)</h4>
<p>You can fault the Dawgs for letting Purdue rally from a 24-point second-quarter deficit to tie the game at 27 just before time expired, but Georgia ended the game in the first overtime, so no real harm done.</p>
<h4>Nov. 13, 2004: Auburn 24, Georgia 6</h4>
<p>Georgia had already lost the one game against Tennessee that would end up keeping the Dawgs from winning the SEC East this year, but both Auburn and Georgia were Top 10 teams. And Auburn was still in the running for the SEC and national championships -- which would have provided more than enough motivation. But Georgia could only manage 85 yards on the game and wouldn't score until there were about two minutes left. Auburn won the SEC but got locked out of the national championship game for an Oklahoma team that shouldn't have been there and a Southern Cal team that officially was not.</p>
<h4>Jan. 1, 2005: Georgia 24, Wisconsin 21 (Outback Bowl)<br>
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<p>Georgia more than doubled up the Badgers in yardage and held Wisconsin to 1.7 yards a game, mostly because the Georgia defense forced John Stocco to run for his life. Georgia lost the turnover battle or this game wouldn't have been quite as close as it was.</p>
<h4>Sept. 3, 2005: Georgia 48, Boise State 13</h4>
<p>There was a lot of hype going into this game about whether the Broncos, who were beginning to draw attention for their winning ways, could challenge the mighty Bulldogs. They could not.</p>
<h4>Sept 10, 2005: Georgia 17, South Carolina 15</h4>
<p>Dawgs fans came into this game wanting revenge -- not for anything South Carolina had done, but because Steve Spurrier was returning to Athens for the first time since becoming the first team to drop 50 on Georgia at home. They giddily predicted running up the score on a team that some experts predicted would go 4-7. Instead, a missed extra point and a poorly thrown ball to an open receiver on what would have been a two-point conversion was all that prevented overtime. The Gamecocks also missed a field goal that would have given them the win -- but the victory was all that really mattered, and Georgia got that much.</p>
<h4>Oct. 29, 2005: Florida 14, Georgia 10</h4>
<p>This game marked Georgia's first loss but wouldn't end the Dawgs' shot at an SEC championship.</p>
<h4>Dec. 3, 2005: Georgia 34, LSU 14 (SEC Championship Game)<br>
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<p>LSU's sole loss to that point had come in late September in a wild overtime game against Tennessee. Georgia had already lost two games and were seen as the underdogs. So much for all that. It wasn't quite as much an offensive slugfest as the numbers would suggest -- D.J. Shockley got almost two-thirds of his passing yardage on his two touchdown throws -- but it was a rout.</p>
<h4>Jan. 2, 2006: West Virginia 38, Georgia 35 (Sugar Bowl)</h4>
<p>Even though Georgia would still enjoy some big-game success after this, you can probably track the start of the "Big Game" Mark Richt meme back to this contest. It was the national debut of the West Virginia team that would nearly win a national championship not long after, and Georgia spent most of the first part of the game getting sliced and diced by the Mountaineers' spread offense. The Dawgs fought back to make it a game, but the "haha you lost to a Big East team" narrative hung around for a while.</p>
<h4>Oct. 7, 2006: Tennessee 51, Georgia 33</h4>
<p>This was a Top 15 matchup when the Vols rolled into Sanford, became the second team to drop half a hundred on the scoreboard as the visitors, and then left. It was also the beginning of a difficult stretch for Georgia, which would also lose three of its next four games.</p>
<h4>Nov. 11, 2006: Georgia 37, Auburn 15</h4>
<p>The Tigers were 9-1 and thinking about perhaps getting into the national championship game. Georgia was 6-4 and coming off the second half of its second two-game losing streak of the season. That would be the loss to Kentucky in a season that also feature a defeat against Vanderbilt. But the Dawgs turned in a 23-point second quarter (with some help from a generous Auburn offense) and clocked the Tigers, knocking them out of the SEC and national title races.</p>
<h4>Dec. 30, 2006: Georgia 31, Virginia Tech 24 (Chick-fil-A Bowl)</h4>
<p>The Dawgs managed to rally from a 21-3 halftime lead and actually get back into one of the polls. It seemed like 2006 might have been a blip on the radar in an otherwise successful coaching tenure. The 2007 season would seem to backt hat up.</p>
<h4>Sept. 1, 2007: Georgia 35, Oklahoma State 14</h4>
<p>There was a lot of hype going into this game about whether the Cowboys, who were beginning to draw attention for Mike Gundy's coaching, could challenge the mighty Bulldogs. They could not.</p>
<h4>Oct. 27, 2007: Georgia 42, Florida 30</h4>
<p>This is the game that gave us that infamous riot/celebration that led to two simultaneous unsportsmanlike conduct penalties on Georgia and the <a href="http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_bianchi/2008/07/in-his-new-book.html">greatest Urban Meyer quote ever</a>: "It was a bad deal. It will forever be in the mind of Urban Meyer and in the mind of our football team. We’ll handle it and it’s going to be a big deal." It was also a big deal for Georgia, coming in the early part of a seven-game winning streak and seeming to spark the team.</p>
<h4>Jan. 1, 2008: Georgia 41, Hawaii 10 (Sugar Bowl)</h4>
<p>This was a big game only in the atmospherics -- two highly-ranked teams in a BCS bowl. It soon became clear that Hawaii was a paper tiger, and Georgia spent most of the game scattering those pieces of paper that Hawaii called the defensive and offensive lines all over the Super Dome.</p>
<h4>Sept. 20, 2008: Georgia 27, Arizona State 10</h4>
<p>The trip to Tempe was supposed to be the biggest early-season test for the Dawgs, then seen as potential national-title contenders. One 21-point second quarter later, Georgia had aced the exam.</p>
<h4>Sept. 27, 2008: Alabama 41, Georgia 30</h4>
<p>The Bulldogs apparently left whatever allowed them to win in Tempe, in Tempe. What followed was one the most thorough dominations of a football game you will ever see when the final deficits are 11 points on the scoreboard and fewer yards (10) on the stat sheet. The Tide rang up a 31-0 halftime lead, then seemed to play both prevent offense and prevent defense in the second half to make things look a lot closer than they were.</p>
<h4>Nov. 1, 2008: Florida 49, Georgia 10</h4>
<p>Despite the loss to Alabama, Georgia was still in the hunt for the SEC East when the Bulldogs met the Gators in Jacksonville. Georgia committed four turnovers and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10166/tim-tebow">Tim Tebow</a> led the Gators to another in a series of easy wins against competent-looking foes who melted down. At one point, the Bulldogs went 38 minutes between scores.</p>
<h4>Nov. 29, 2008: Georgia Tech 45, Georgia 42</h4>
<p>There was an opportunity for Georgia to get one quasi-season-redeeming win against the Yellow Jackets. Then they allowed 26 points in the third quarter and allowed Georgia Tech to win while completing one pass. (The 409 rushing yards had more to do with the victory, I'm sure.)</p>
<h4>Jan. 1, 2009: Georgia 24, Michigan State 12 (Capital One Bowl)<br>
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<p>It might not be any consolation, but there would be a later season when Georgia would have loved to defeat Michigan State in a Florida bowl game. But by this point, the "Big Game" complaint was beginning to grow. Richt had lost three vitally important games in a season that was supposed to bring a national championship back to Athens for the first time in nearly three decades. And only one of those losses had been all that close.</p>
<h4>Sept. 5, 2009: Oklahoma State 24, Georgia 10</h4>
<p>There was a lot of hype going into this game about whether the Cowboys, who were continuing to draw attention for Mike Gundy's coaching, could challenge the mighty Bulldogs. They did. And they won.</p>
<h4>Oct. 3, 2009: LSU 20, Georgia 13</h4>
<p>I'm hesitant to call this a loss <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2009/10/3/1068023/can-you-penalize-the-officials-for">for obvious reasons</a>. But it happened and undoubtedly played into the narrative when people felt like it, so here it is.</p>
<h4>Nov. 28, 2009: Georgia 30, Georgia Tech 24</h4>
<p>The NCAA would like to remind us that, officially, the Yellow Jackets were not on their way to an ACC Championship Game when Georgia surprised Georgia Tech at home. But we didn't know that at the time, and this looked like a pretty solid win for Richt and Co.</p>
<h4>Dec. 28, 2009: Georgia 44, Texas A&M 20 (Independence Bowl)<br>
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<p>No one knew that this was a preview of a future conference game when the Bulldogs and the Aggies met in a postseason game. Even against the mediocre competition, Georgia fans took comfort that blowing out A&M by 24 points signaled a real chance at improvement in 2010. That's not precisely what happened.</p>
<h4>Sept. 11, 2010: South Carolina 17, Georgia 6</h4>
<p>This was the "welcome to the SEC, Mr. Marcus Lattimore" game. Georgia had a chance to put itself forward as a candidate for the SEC East title in the post-Tebow Era and instead allowed South Carolina to steadily grind the game to powder.</p>
<h4>Nov. 13, 2010: Auburn 49, Georgia 31</h4>
<p>This one started out looking like it might be a good game for the Bulldogs, as they took a 21-7 lead in the first quarter. Then, the other 45 minutes of the game happened. Auburn scored 14 points in the second, third and fourth quarters; despite Georgia tying the game in the third, they were never again able to get a lead on Auburn once the Tigers tied it just before halftime. Auburn would go on to have an undefeated season and win a national title.</p>
<h4>Nov. 27, 2010: Georgia 42, Georgia Tech 34</h4>
<p>The annual rivalry bout was important for all the wrong reasons: Lose it and the Bulldogs would be home for the bowl season for the first time since Mark Richt started coaching. The hot-seat talk would take on very serious undertones. It was far from inspiring -- Georgia Tech generated 512 yards of total offense -- but it was enough to avoid a real disaster. That would come later.</p>
<h4>Dec. 28, 2010: UCF 10, Georgia 6 (Liberty Bowl)</h4>
<p>About a month later, to be precise. This was not a game of beauty for either team -- they combined for 521 yards of total offense -- but a fourth-quarter touchdown gave the Knights the win. That meant that in the space of less than five years, Georgia had managed to lose bowl games to a Big East team and a Conference USA team. Oh, and Richt had a losing season for the first time in his head coaching career. You can see why things were getting tense in Athens.</p>
<h4>Sept. 3, 2011: Boise State 34, Georgia 21</h4>
<p>This was supposed to be a chance for the Dawgs to put the upstarts from Idaho in their place. Things did not go according to script.</p>
<h4>Sept. 10, 2011: South Carolina 45, Georgia 42</h4>
<p>With this loss, the wheels were coming off of the Mark Richt Era. He had lost three straight games, two of them to teams from non-AQ leagues, and the Dawgs were behind the eight ball in the race for the SEC East. Losses in major games were also piling up.</p>
<h4>Oct. 29, 2011: Georgia 24, Florida 20</h4>
<p>After the upset loss to Auburn at home and with a potential loss to Arkansas looming, South Carolina fans could pin their hopes on one thing about Mark Richt's Bulldogs: They never won against Florida. Except, this time, Georgia did. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray</a> completed fewer than half his passes, but the defense shut Florida down and Georgia got its SEC East hopes back on track.</p>
<h4>Dec. 5, 2011: LSU 42, Georgia 10 (SEC Championship Game)</h4>
<p>The hopes that Richt had now permanently solved his big-game woes seemed unfounded. For the next-to-last time in the 2011 season, Georgia would play what appeared to be a quality opponent -- and lose. Georgia took an early 10-0 and then watched (and didn't do much more) as LSU scored 42 unanswered points to turn the game into a laugher.</p>
<h4>Jan. 2, 2012: Michigan State 33, Georgia 30 -- 3OT (Outback Bowl)</h4>
<p>This game never should have gotten to overtime. The Bulldogs took a 16-0 lead into the locker room and once again gave it away, allowing the Spartans to tie the game and then win it in extra frames. Mark Richt had gone through a season and lost to every opponent that would finish the year ranked.</p>
<p>Again, this is an unscientific study. There's no set definition of a "big game," and there were some that I almost included that didn't make it and vice versa. (Going with "games against ranked teams" can be overly simplistic, since real-time rankings are often inflated or deflated and even postseason rankings aren't a perfect barometer. Besides, there are some games that are significant regardless of the rankings.)</p>
<p>But you can make the case that Richt was a solid big-game coach, with a few hiccups that aren't unexpected when you're facing top-notch teams, until around the time of the Alabama blackout debacle. Since then, Georgia has won a significant game here or there, but that's been the exception rather than the rule; even last year's win in Jacksonville is less surprising than it looks given where each team ended up.</p>
<p>Then again, part of what makes Mark Richt a great coach is that his teams end up in so many big games -- he makes his teams significant factors in the races for the SEC and the national title.</p>
<p>But there's only so far that can get you. Eventually, fans want to not just watch their teams play in big games, but watch their teams win in big games. Richt has another chance to give them that on Saturday.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/26/3554402/florida-vs-georgia-preview-mark-richt-big-gamesBrandon Larrabee2012-10-25T16:34:49-04:002012-10-25T16:34:49-04:00Hurricane Sandy Will Likely Affect Florida-Georgia
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<figcaption>Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>The game for the SEC East title will be affected by a rare late October tropical system.</p> <p>It's looking more and more like this year's edition of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be affected in some material way by Hurricane Sandy. It's unusual for a tropical system to be out there this late in the year, but hurricane season isn't officially over yet.</p>
<p>As of right now, it appears it's going to be more of a wind event than a rain event. The forecast as of posting is just 30% rain but a wind of 19 miles per hour. The city of Jacksonville <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/FCN2go/status/261547665261727744">has advised tailgaters</a> not to use canopies or tents, and the coaches <a target="_blank" href="http://georgia.247sports.com/Article/How-may-Hurricane-Sandy-impact-Saturdays-Georgia-Florida-game-97752">have already been asked</a> numerous questions about how wind might affect the game. Let's see, can I find a completely unfair quote that might be funny out of context? Sure:</p>
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<p>"I mean, that’s a lot of wind," Richt said.</p>
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<p>Done. After all, the coaches aren't really saying anything you wouldn't expect out of them. All of their quotes boil down to this: the wind has an effect on balls that are in the air. The only real bit of substance is <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray</a> saying he throws the ball better in the wind than the rain.</p>
<p>If the wind is as bad as predicted, it bodes well for Florida. Georgia <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/22/3539394/georgia-running-rushing-offense-florida-gurley-marshall-murray/in/3308917" target="_blank">hasn't been running the ball well lately</a>, with it needing Murray's arm to do all the heavy lifting against Kentucky. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131897/jeff-driskel">Jeff Driskel</a> doesn't throw very often, and some of his longest passing plays <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/23/3543742/if-florida-breaks-it-will-be-ugly/in/3308917" target="_blank">were really</a> short throws with long runs. Florida is built to run the ball, and running backs aren't often bothered by winds.</p>
<p>Whatever the conditions are this Saturday, they won't be nearly as bad as what the folks up north are projected to get. The hurricane <a href="http://newsok.com/noaa-to-east-beware-of-coming-frankenstorm/article/feed/452626" target="_blank">is expected</a> to combine with a winter storm to make what NOAA called a "Frankenstorm" that could cause up to $1 billion in damage. Hopefully it won't be that bad, but I'll take a little wind over that any day.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/25/3555262/hurricane-sandy-florida-georgia-jacksonville-frankenstormDavid Wunderlich2012-10-24T09:01:39-04:002012-10-24T09:01:39-04:00Georgia Vs. Florida and Aaron Murray's Legacy
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<figcaption>Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>Aaron Murray has been one of the SEC's best quarterbacks over the last two years. He has one last chance to prove it</p> <p>Maybe Aaron Murray never really had the chance to match up to the expectations that were placed upon him almost from the time he starting taking snaps for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/georgia-bulldogs">Georgia Bulldogs</a>. By halfway through his freshman season, he was already being compared to Matthew Stafford even <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2010/10/14/1750831/aaron-murray-is-on-his-way-to-being-richts-best-quarterback">on this blog</a> -- and we were hardly the only ones doing it -- just a few months after Stafford became the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.</p>
<p>In some ways, the comparisons were eminently fair. In terms of just <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray's</a> performance, he might actually be better than Matthew Stafford, whose career passer efficiency rating at Georgia was 133.30. Aaron Murray's so far is more than 20 points higher than that (154.02). Both his 2010 season and his 2012 season to this point have been better in terms of passing efficiency than <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10272/matthew-stafford">Matthew Stafford's</a> senior season in 2008.</p>
<p>But fairly or not -- and I'm one of those who tends to think not -- we remember quarterbacks for more than their individual accomplishments. How many times have you heard that Dan Marino was a great quarterback -- but, remember he never won a Super Bowl? And despite never getting an SEC Championship or an SEC East title, Matthew Stafford led the Bulldogs to a 27-7 record in games he started, a win in the 2008 Sugar Bowl and two other postseason victories. Oh, and Stafford beat Florida for only the second time in Mark Richt's tenure in 2007.</p>
<p>Murray's record on that count has been mixed. He is 22-12 in his three seasons at Georgia having started the same number of games as Stafford. He has never won a bowl game of any sort. And while the Dawgs won the SEC East in 2011, the team got a rap for defeating all the bad teams it faced and losing to the good teams. On the other hand, Murray defeated Florida for only the third time in Mark Richt's tenure last year.</p>
<p>Which is why this game is so intriguing from the standpoint of what it means for Aaron Murray's legacy should he decide to go pro after this year. (Murray is a redshirt junior this year and really has very little to prove to the scouts; if he stays on for the 2013 season, it will likely be for team accomplishments or because he likes the college lifestyle.)</p>
<p>If Murray defeats Florida this year, it will be the first time the Dawgs have won back-to-back installments of the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in nearly 25 years. (The last was 1988-89.) And it would all but lock up the second consecutive SEC East title for Georgia. As the last major obstacle for the Bulldogs, it would likely mean a 27-12 record with the SEC Championship Game and a bowl game giving him a shot at a 29-12 record. And that means a chance at the first conference title at Georgia since 2005 and the first national championship since 1980.</p>
<p>That's a lot of speculation and projection based on one game, of course. But the stakes are really that high for Georgia and for Murray. If Murray loses this game, his career record after the regular season is still likely to be about 26-13. Florida will almost certainly represent the SEC East in the conference championship bout, and Murray will clock in with a chance at his first postseason victory and a 27-13 record.</p>
<p>But think about that difference for a minute. Lose, and Murray would continue to face the skeptical claim: "Yeah, but when he faced a really good team, he never could quite come up with the win." (The 2011 Florida squad was far from a quality football team.) His signature win would be -- what? -- a four-point victory against that 7-6 Florida team? A win in this year's Capital One or Outback Bowl?</p>
<p>Win out -- which is no easy task -- but win out after a win against Florida, and Murray would go down as the quarterback that called the signals for Mark Richt's greatest team and led long-suffering Georgia fans back to the heights their program could reach. When you win a national championship and an SEC title, the charge that you couldn't beat the big teams is pretty much destroyed. He might just be remembered as the greatest quarterback in the Mark Richt Era, though <span class="sbn-auto-link">David Greene</span> would likely beg to differ.</p>
<p>Aaron Murray is a great quarterback and deserves to be remembered as such. But the reality of the way we talk about football is that there's only one sure way for him to be acknowledged as a great quarterback, and that's to win on Saturday.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/24/3546700/worlds-largest-outdoor-cocktail-party-preview-is-aaron-murrays-legacyBrandon Larrabee2012-10-23T16:33:51-04:002012-10-23T16:33:51-04:00If Florida Breaks, It WIll Be Ugly
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hpa59aA_aXM_otH95IwOt65ntyo=/92x0:3902x2540/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1882919/20121015_ter_sv7_363.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A unique rallying cry has helped lead Florida to a 7-0 start, but it could be ominous if things stop working so well.</p> <p>Florida's new strength coach Jeff Dillman came up with the phrase "Florida never breaks" as a mantra for the team this year. <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Jeff_Dillman/status/260422041440776192">Here</a> is a representative sample of a common usage of it in the form of the Twitter hashtag #FNB. The players have really bought into it, and given their ability to finish strong in nearly ever game this year, it's hard to blame them.</p>
<p>"Florida never breaks" is an excellent motivational slogan, but inherent in it is the premise that nothing about Florida is already broken. That's not quite accurate.</p>
<p>Florida's offense has been broken since shortly after the 2010 Sugar Bowl. The 2010 team had a rotation of three quarterbacks by the end of the year, and the 2011 offense crumbled without <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10162/john-brantley" class="sbn-auto-link">John Brantley</a>. Yes, the most underwhelming quarterback in the team's recent memory was the thing that kept the offense from being a complete disaster. <a target="_blank" href="http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=312880002">It's true</a>.</p>
<p>So what about this year? The offense is better, right? Well, "better" is a relative term. It is better:</p>
<p>
<style type="text/css">
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<table class="tableizer-table" align="center"><tbody>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Category</th> <th>2010</th> <th>2011</th> <th>2012</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rushing</td>
<td>166.92</td>
<td>143</td>
<td>212.71</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>YPC</td>
<td>4.31</td>
<td>3.96</td>
<td>4.67</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Passing</td>
<td>184.3</td>
<td>185.7</td>
<td>137.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>YPA</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Pass Eff.</td>
<td>117.3</td>
<td>125.53</td>
<td>145.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total Off.</td>
<td>351.22</td>
<td>328.7</td>
<td>350.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Plays/G</td>
<td>68.00</td>
<td>60.69</td>
<td>64.71</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>...but it's not great.</p>
<p>This year's team is the best of these three at rushing, but the 4.67 YPC rate is good for only <a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category01/sort02.html" target="_blank">44th in the nation</a>. And rushing is the thing that the team does well. The 7.2 yards per attempt is just <a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category02/sort04.html" target="_blank">65th nationally</a>. But wait, that's not all.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131897/jeff-driskel" class="sbn-auto-link">Jeff Driskel</a> has three long touchdown completions. Two of them are a 50-yarder against Bowling Green and a 72-yarder against Tennessee. Both were by <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/36032/frankie-hammond-jr" class="sbn-auto-link">Frankie Hammond Jr</a>., and both were catch-and-runs where the ball didn't spend that much time in the air. The third was a 52-yard completion to <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/36031/omarius-hines" class="sbn-auto-link">Omarius Hines</a> against Kentucky that was largely made possible by Kentucky's awful pass defense.</p>
<p>Here is what Driskel's season line looks like with and without those plays:</p>
<p>
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<table class="tableizer-table" align="center"><tbody>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Driskel</th> <th>Comp-Att</th> <th>Pct.</th> <th>Yards</th> <th>YPA</th> <th>TD</th> <th>INT</th> <th>Pass Eff.</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Full season</td>
<td>85-127</td>
<td>66.93%</td>
<td>929</td>
<td>7.31</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>147.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Minus 3 plays</td>
<td>82-124</td>
<td>66.13%</td>
<td>752</td>
<td>6.06</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>130.68</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>Those three passes pad his yardage total by 177 yards, his yards per attempt by 1.25, and his passing efficiency by about 17 points. Also without them his highest single game yardage total becomes the 162 he had against Texas A&M, and the fall in his Bowling Green yardage would take him to under 100 yards in four games instead of three.</p>
<p>When it goes up against a team that can stop the run, Florida's offense struggles mightily to put points on the board. The Gators' three worst rushing performances were against Texas A&M (20 points), LSU (14 points), and South Carolina (44 points). One of those things is not like the others, but you know exactly why. Florida only had one drive longer than 50 yards on the Gamecocks, and five of its seven scoring "drives" were of 36 yards or less. The defense and special teams delivered those points far more than the offense did.</p>
<p>Matt Hinton <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/2012/10/20/3532216/florida-44-south-carolina-11">compared</a> Florida to last year's LSU team, and the comparison is apt in that both teams have used defense and special teams as methods to get points almost as much as they have used the offense. The Gators' offense this year also specializes in a punishing run game, and it is only slightly less dysfunctional. Brent Pease has made a lot of chicken salad out of the sorry receiving corps he inherited, and he generally plays to the strengths of his players. He also doesn't have the pieces to have a good offense, and no amount of play calling magic can overcome that.</p>
<p>We also know that the 2011 LSU offense had a couple of horrid games against Alabama. The Tide was able to shut down the run, and that shut down the whole offense. Across the two games, LSU had only one drive longer than 40 yards and famously scored just nine total points.</p>
<p>So who might be able to break Florida? Two obvious candidates <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/defense/split20/category01/sort02.html">jump right out</a>. Florida State is No. 6 nationally in yards per rush defense against I-A teams, and potential SEC Championship Game opponent Alabama is No. 1 in the same. True, LSU is No. 2 in the category, but the Tigers still don't have an offense while FSU (mostly) and Alabama (definitely) do.</p>
<p>Can Georgia do it this weekend? That much I'm not sure of. Georgia is 51st nationally in yards per rush defense, allowing 4.02 per carry on the season. It's also 45th in <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/defense/split20/category02/sort02.html">passing efficiency defense</a> and 51st in <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/defense/split20/category02/sort04.html">passing yards per attempt allowed</a>. If the Bulldogs are going to break the Gators, it probably won't be due to the factors I laid out above. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray</a> is a great quarterback and the freshmen running backs are great when they have holes to run through, so a good day from the UGA line could allow the Bulldogs to outgun the Gators. That's the more likely story line for the Red and Black.</p>
<p>But supposing Florida does get through Jacksonville unscathed, it will be a tremendous achievement for Will Muschamp to have taken this team and locked up the division. It does not, however, mean that the team won't run into deep trouble in the future. There will be time to address future match ups later, but I can't believe yet that the Gators will end the season unbroken.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/23/3543742/if-florida-breaks-it-will-be-uglyDavid Wunderlich2012-10-22T16:36:33-04:002012-10-22T16:36:33-04:00Breaking Down Georgia's Running Game
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jyXpCQqdZLDCpLfoLhZuwmTwUXc=/0x0:3990x2660/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1824173/20120901_kdl_al3_004.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kevin Liles-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Bulldogs' running game started hot, but it has cooled down in the past two games. What can we learn from that to calibrate expectations for Saturday against Florida?</p> <p>Thanks to the magic of <a href="http://www.secdigitalnetwork.com/SECGAMEDAY/SECGAMEDAYFOOTBALL.aspx?week=Week%208&season=2011/2012" target="_blank">SEC video box scores</a>, I took some time to break down Georgia's rushing game in conference play based on whether it had a numbers advantage up front or not. I wanted to get an idea as to why the UGA rushing game had worked so well earlier in the year but not so well in the past two games.</p>
<p>Regarding the factor or having numbers or not, revisit <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/9/6/3294790/why-jeff-driskel-is-the-right-choice-for-floridas-quarterback" target="_blank">this post</a> on <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131897/jeff-driskel">Jeff Driskel</a> from earlier in the year if you're not familiar with the concept.</p>
<p>I only looked at the base rushing attack with Todd Gurley, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/113396/keith-marshall">Keith Marshall</a>, and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/158482/ken-malcome">Ken Malcome</a>, so this doesn't include things like sacks, fumbled pitches, QB scrambles on pass plays, and QB sneaks with a yard or inches to go. Only on two plays, both from the South Carolina game, could I not determine the match up because of camera angles. Also, I'm not going to discuss UGA running against a numbers disadvantage; they've done it only eight times in five SEC games and, as you would think, it doesn't work very well (-0.13 YPC).</p>
<p>Let's start broadly. Georgia rushes for 6.99 yards per carry with an advantage and 5.72 yards per carry with equal numbers. Some long runs make those figures a bit misleading, though. The median rush with an advantage is five yards, while the median rush against equal numbers is 2.5 yards. Factor out runs of longer than 30 yards, and the averages are 5.24 YPC with an advantage and 3.83 YPC against equal numbers. Quite understandably, Georgia rushes better with a man advantage than without.</p>
<p>Now, by opponent:</p>
<table border="1" align="center"><tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;">
<td style="text-align: center;">Opponent</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Equal (avg)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Equal (med)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Advantage (avg)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Advantage (med)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Both (avg)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">Missouri</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.07</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.00</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">Vanderbilt</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.21</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.26</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">Tennessee</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.88</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.13</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.58</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">South Carolina*</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.50</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.40</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">Kentucky</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.18</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.14</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.72</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>Let's calibrate expectations for a sec. As of right now, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/911/team/defense/split07/category01/sort02.html">here</a> is how these teams stack up in conference play against the run: South Carolina 4th (3.09 YPC), Kentucky 9th (4.17), Missouri 10th (4.32), Vanderbilt 13th (5.51), Tennessee 14th (5.89). Georgia's full-game averages are ahead of Missouri's, Vanderbilt's, and Tennessee's season averages, reflecting the good start the running game had.</p>
<p>I put an asterisk by South Carolina for a reason. These numbers here remove Georgia's <a href="http://espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=322802579&period=4" target="_blank">sole fourth quarter drive</a> that came with them down 35-0. The game was long over, and I don't think it fairly represented what was going on. The Bulldogs rushed for 7.5 YPC on that drive, which is way out of line with the rest of the game.</p>
<p>Anyway, so what caused the drop off in these rushing averages over the course of the last two games? It's pretty simple: a lack of big plays.</p>
<p>Only nine of UGA's 31 rushes against Tennessee went for more than five yards, but three of those nine were big home runs. Take out the touchdown runs of 51, 72, and 75 yards, and they rush for just 3.54 YPC on the game against one of the league's iffier run defenses. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/158475/todd-gurley">Todd Gurley's</a> 44-yard run against Mizzou by itself raises the average by 1.4 YPC from 3.57 to the 4.97 you see above. UGA had just one run of over ten yards, a 15-yarder to start the game, against South Carolina, and it likewise had just one rush, for 12 yards, of more than ten against Kentucky.</p>
<p>Another thing of note is that the best overall rushing game and the worst rushing game for the team are mirror images of each other when you look at what the defense did against them.</p>
<p>Vanderbilt did not load up the box much. Georgia had 23 runs with an advantage versus just 14 with equal numbers. There is a good reason for that: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray</a> was having a great day through the air. He was 18-of-24 (75%) for 250 yards, two TDs, no INTs, and a passing efficiency of 190.0. Murray's great play forced the defense to have to respect the pass, and that led to Georgia having a numbers advantage often. The team, like any team, does its best running with an advantage, so it had a great day.</p>
<p>South Carolina, on the other hand, did load up on the run. Prior to garbage time, Georgia had just five rushes with an advantage versus 12 runs against equal numbers. Even though the Bulldogs had to throw it more because they were playing from behind a lot, the Gamecock defense still committed to stopping the run. Murray could not make that defense pay through the air, going just 11-for-31 (35.5%) for 109 yards, no TDs, an INT, and a passing efficiency of 58.6. Georgia did run it noticeably better with a numbers advantage, but they had that advantage less than a third of the time they ran their base rushing plays.</p>
<p>Granted the Vandy and South Carolina defenses aren't in the same universe, but here's why I point that out. Based on those two paragraphs, you're probably expecting me to say that Kentucky loaded up on the run just like the Gamecocks did. After all, Murray had another excellent game going 30-for-38 (78.9%) for 427 yards, four TDs, no INTs, and a passing efficiency of 208.1.</p>
<p>However, Kentucky didn't do that. Georgia had an advantage on 14 rushes versus 11 rushes against equal numbers. The Wildcats didn't focus on the run particularly hard; UGA's big guys up front just couldn't get a consistent push or open holes with regularity for the backs. That goes for even when they had a numerical advantage. As for Murray's big day, UK's pass defense is just that bad.</p>
<p>Georgia had better hope that was just a side effect of a look ahead game. Against pro-style running attacks that are similar to the Bulldogs', Florida rarely has loaded up the box against the run. In the few times they do equal up the numbers, it's usually because they're playing nickel (six-man front) against a one-back, no TE/FB look from the offense. Will Muschamp partially does this thanks to great line play and partially because his safeties are excellent at coming up in run support. Josh Evans and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/111911/matt-elam">Matt Elam</a> are actually <a href="http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2012/Internet/ranking_summary/2012000000235tackles.html" target="_blank">the team's leading tacklers</a>, and you'll see them a lot in run play defense this weekend.</p>
<p>Georgia's offensive line has to have a better game this weekend than last, full stop. If it doesn't then Evans and Elam will be able to stay back more for passing coverage, something that will hurt Murray's chances through the air. Murray bailed out the running game with his arm in Lexington, but he probably won't be able to against the nation's <a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/defense/split01/category02/sort02.html" target="_blank">third-best passing efficiency defense</a>. If Gurley and Marshall don't get openings to make some more of those big plays again, then we're going to see yet another Florida win in Jacksonville.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/22/3539394/georgia-running-rushing-offense-florida-gurley-marshall-murrayDavid Wunderlich