Team Speed Kills - BCS Rankings, Week 1: Alabama, Florida Rule, But What Does It Mean?
Sports are just better in the SEC
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52580/tsk_fav.png
2012-10-14T23:03:46-04:00
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/rss/stream/3268375
2012-10-14T23:03:46-04:00
2012-10-14T23:03:46-04:00
BCS Oddities: The Weirdness of the Computers
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JvsGWYEvOkDOdzIan_9s0APv1c0=/0x667:3067x2712/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1391429/20121013_tjg_al6_320.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Crystal Logiudice-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A look at how the chips and other outliers affected the BCS Top 25. This week: Harris looks normal, South Carolina > LSU and the greatness of Texas Tech</p> <p><b>Let's make fun of the Harris Poll voters, shall we? Not really.</b> It's hard to attack them too much for having Florida State at No. 8 -- after all, the USA Today voters have the Seminoles at No. 10 -- but it does seem to do away with the idea that preseason perception doesn't play a factor if a poll isn't taken for the first few weeks. They also have Clemson at No. 13 in the rankings, but again, so do the coaches. If the USA Today poll is starting to move closer to the Harris panel, this is not an encouraging situation.</p>
<p><b>LSU is really tragically underrated by the computers.</b> In fact, they're below South Carolina in the chips one day after edging the Gamecocks by two at home. For once, this blog's favorite computer ranking to make fun of -- Richard Billingsley -- is not to blame here. He has LSU sixth and South Carolina seventh, which is right where they wind up in the overall poll. However, there are some oddities. Anderson & Hester have South Carolina eighth; LSU is 17th. That one's thrown out for the Tigers as their lowest mark, but there are other. Colley Matrix puts the Gamecocks at No. 8 and LSU at No. 12. Jeff Sagarin's logical ranking of No. 5 LSU and No. 9 South Carolina ends up getting discarded for LSU as the high score and Peter Wolfe's 8-9 split combined with Billingsley isn't enough to make up the difference.</p>
<p><b>But Billingsley is still strange?</b> Of course he is. He puts Florida at No. 5, behind (in order) Alabama, Notre Dame, Oregon and Kansas State. Yes, Billingsley's computer sees Notre Dame as a better team than Florida. (More on that shortly.) He puts Mississippi State at No. 21 -- because of things and stuff -- at least eight spots clear of every other computer and five lower than the USA Today voters, the most pessimistic of the human polls. He doesn't rank Louisville or Cincinnati, being the only metric to exclude the Cardinals or the Bearcats. Boise State is 13th, which boggles the mind, and TCU gets one of its three computer votes and the highest by far (18th) from Billingsley.</p>
<p><b>Peter Wolfe's Top 10, on the other hand, is really a form of interpretative art.</b> Kansas State is No. 1, followed by Florida and Alabama. Then comes Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oklahoma -- why would I make this stuff up? -- followed by No. 7 Texas Tech. (All the computers seem to have a crush on the Red Raiders.) Then it's LSU and South Carolina, two of the only teams who are likely in their proper place. Notice who's missing? Yes, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/oregon-ducks">Oregon Ducks</a>, who check in at No. 10 according to Wolfe's machines.</p>
<p><b>Computers in general love: Notre Dame, Oregon State and Texas Tech.</b> The Irish are No. 1 according to two machines -- Colley Matrix and Kenneth Massey -- and no lower than fourth according to any of the chips. Oregon State is actually probably closer to right at No. 5 among the machines, but putting them ahead of Alabama, as Anderson & Hester does, is probably a bit extreme. And Tommy Tuberville has charmed the chips, with Texas Tech checking in at No. 7 overall and in Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey and Peter Wolfe's numbers. Sagarin has them at No. 21, but gets thrown out as the low score, and no one else pegs the Raiders below 11th. Why? Probably because the computers see a team that beat West Virginia and Iowa State (among others) and lost to Oklahoma, which looks a lot better when you're not allow to consider the 21-point margin of defeat.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/14/3504644/bcs-rankings-computers-vs-humans
Brandon Larrabee
2012-10-14T22:12:07-04:00
2012-10-14T22:12:07-04:00
BCS and SEC Bowl Projections
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4qdH6p4nX8RYk3tVoJTh9Dg4FQM=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1389401/20121006_lbm_aa8_448.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Scott Olmos-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Where is everyone going based on the first batch of BCS bowl rankings? We're so glad you asked.</p> <p>So, now that we know who ended up where in <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/14/3502918/bcs-poll-rankings-alabama-oregon-florida-notre-dame-kansas-state">the inaugural edition of the BCS Standings</a>, it's time to take a look at who is likely to end up where when the postseason gets started. Just a brief reminder of how we do this: We assume that the highest-ranked team in each conference will win its conference and follow any logical conclusions from that, but otherwise try to assume that teams will remain in pretty much the same position they are right now.</p>
<p>Teams that have an automatic bid to a certain game are italicized.</p>
<p><b>BCS National Championship Game:</b> <i>Alabama</i> vs. <i>Oregon</i><br><b>Fiesta:</b> <i>Kansas State</i> vs. Notre Dame<br><b>Orange:</b> <i>Florida State</i> vs. Rutgers<br><b>Rose:</b> Southern Cal vs. <i>Whoever emerges from the slap-fight known as the B1G</i><br><b>Sugar:</b> Florida vs. Oklahoma</p>
<p>We're going to assume that Florida wins the SEC East -- which is the smart bet unless South Carolina discovers a way to play well on the road -- and performs well enough in Atlanta to get the Sugar Bowl nod to replace the SEC champion. Southern Cal is currently ranked lower than Oregon State, but the Beavers would be projected to lose to Oregon under our guidelines, Southern Cal could very well be the Pac-12 South champion, and it doesn't matter -- marketability and ticket concerns dictate choosing the Trojans over Oregon State is if comes to that and both teams are eligible. Hooray capitalism!</p>
<p>The Fiesta Bowl has the Big 12 Champion and first pick for a team after the auto-replacements are done. Notre Dame will still be on the board because of the Rose Bowl's slavish devotion to hidebound tradition (and the potential of a rematch depending on who crawls out of the crater where the B1G used to be), and the Sugar Bowl will also stick with tradition and the waterfalls of money that would come from selecting a re-energized Florida. The Fiesta Bowl has to market a game with Kansas State -- which is a great team but brings very little commercial value to the table -- and has no traditional niceties to prevent it from snapping up the Irish.</p>
<p>The Sugar Bowl goes next and pairs Florida with Oklahoma, the closest eligible team that wouldn't be a regular-season rematch but would also have the sizzle of being a rematch from the "Corch Urban Meyers" national championship game in 2008. West Virginia is an outside chance here and maybe a better chance if the Mountaineers can defeat Oklahoma, but I find the latter part of that sentence to be implausible even aside from the fact that West Virginia is ranked lower right now.</p>
<p>And so the Orange looks around and realizes that someone has to take Rutgers, which right now is ranked thisfar ahead of Louisville thanks to the computers. Sorry Louisville. (I actually think that Louisville is more likely to win the Big East, for whatever that is worth.)</p>
<p>I'm not going to go through the process of picking all the opponents for the SEC teams in certain bowls based on a bit more than half the season, but guessing where the SEC teams would likely go right now isn't too outlandish.</p>
<p><b>Capital One:</b> LSU<br><b>Cotton:</b> Texas A&M<br><b>Outback:</b> South Carolina<br><b>Chick-fil-A:</b> Georgia<br><b>Gator:</b> Mississippi State<br><b>Music City:</b> Tennessee<br><b>Liberty:</b> Vanderbilt<br><b>BBVA Compass:</b> None eligible<br><b>Independence:</b> None eligible</p>
<p>The Capital One Bowl takes LSU -- it had South Carolina last year and the Tigers haven't been there in a few years. I think the Cotton Bowl leaps at the chance to get Texas A&M into the bowl and pair them with a Big 12 team. (Perhaps a certain team from the same state?) Assuming for a moment that the Outback Bowl does not take leave of its senses and choose Vanderbilt, they go with the Gamecocks because the Outback seems to have some strong attachment to the Gamecocks and South Carolina hasn't been there in a while. (So the inventory has been properly circulated.)</p>
<p>Georgia is an easy choice for the Chick-fil-A, and the Gator has no really good choices left with Florida off the board, so they take Mississippi State. Tennessee gets to bowl eligibility and gets tabbed by the Music City Bowl, and the Liberty takes Vanderbilt. If Ole Miss is eligible, my guess would be that the Liberty goes with the Rebels and the Commodores are headed to Birmingham.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/14/3504340/bcs-bowl-projections-alabama-oregon-florida-notre-dame
Brandon Larrabee
2012-10-14T20:58:05-04:00
2012-10-14T20:58:05-04:00
Alabama, Florida Headline First BCS Rankings
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/g9PRDjlJ81NURuNOPDvRa1TOL70=/0x76:4000x2743/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1375191/154074714.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jamie Squire - Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Crimson Tide and Gators are the top two teams of the year's first official BCS rankings.</p> <p>In an unexpected twist, it's Alabama and Florida at the top of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2012/10/14/3504016/bcs-rankings-standings-2012-top-25-alabama-oregon">this season's first set of BCS rankings</a>:</p>
<p>1. Alabama<br>2. Florida<br>3. Oregon<br>4. Kansas State<br>5. Notre Dame<br>6. LSU<br>7. South Carolina<br>8. Oregon State<br>9. Oklahoma<br>10. USC</p>
<p>The SEC has half of the top 12, which is a pretty remarkable place to be. It won't last, but for a week at least as the season goes along: S-E-C! S-E-C!</p>
<p>The main story in the top five is the computers overruling the humans on the matter of Florida. The coaches have the Gators at No. 4 and the Harris has them at No. 3, but the CPUs love of the Gators pushed unanimous human poll No. 2 Oregon down to third. The algorithms also like Oregon State over Oregon, interestingly, and South Carolina over LSU despite the results of the head-to-head game. Keep in mind the formulas can't include margin of victory, so weirdness in them is to be expected.</p>
<p>So with that said, here is what the top ten teams have done and what they still have remaining:</p>
<h4><b>1. Alabama</b></h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> None.</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 6 LSU, No. 12 Mississippi State, No. 18 Texas A&M, possibly No. 2 Florida, No. 7 South Carolina, or No. 11 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>With the West on a downward trajectory and Bama's East opponents being Tennessee and Missouri, there has been some grumbling of late about the Crimson Tide's schedule. It's well founded when talking about Michigan's and Arkansas's disappointments, but the team will face four ranked opponents between now and the end of the season if it wins the division. The team hasn't been tested much yet, but there are trials coming.</p>
<h4>2. Florida</h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 6 LSU, No. 18 Texas A&M</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 7 South Carolina, No. 11 Georgia, No. 14 Florida State, possibly No. 1 Alabama or No. 6 LSU in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>The Gators check in as the first team of three in the top ten rankings with multiple wins over ranked teams. The LSU win was buoyed by the Tigers' recovery against the Gamecocks, and the way they held <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134696/johnny-manziel" class="sbn-auto-link">Johnny Manziel</a> in check is only looking more and more impressive as the season goes along. There's no rest for the team, though, as back-to-back top 11 opponents are on the way with South Carolina and Georgia. They possibly could get another top 11 double with FSU and the SEC Championship Game. If this team finishes the season with no more than one loss, that loss not being in Atlanta, it will have a strong claim to one of the top two spots.</p>
<h4>3. Oregon</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> None.</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 8 Oregon State, No. 10 USC, No. 20 Stanford, possibly No. 10 USC again in the Pac-12 Championship Game</p>
<p>The same kind of complaints apply to the Ducks' schedule as Bama's, what with them not having played a team that is in the current rankings. It really doesn't have anything to do with disappointments, as the schedule always looked backloaded. They also have four ranked teams to go if they stay on their current course, provided the second win over USC doesn't knock the Trojans out of the poll at the end. If USC takes another loss (to Notre Dame, say) plus two at Oregon's hands, it could happen. That would deprive the Ducks of two wins over a ranked team and leave them with just two on the year, provided Stanford doesn't also sink away.</p>
<h4>4. Kansas State</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 9 Oklahoma</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 13 West Virginia, No. 17 Texas Tech, No. 23 TCU, No. 25 Texas</p>
<p>The Big 12 was looking really strong early in the season, but it may have been a result of some truly awful non-conference scheduling. With Oklahoma State rebuilding/reloading and Texas plummeting after Dallas (again), four teams seem to have separated themselves. With K-State being one of them, that plus no conference title game means the Wildcats will only get three marquee opponents most likely. Winning over Oklahoma was good, but it was only by five. They might want to try for some style points in future big games to solidify their claim to be near the top, but Bill Snyder has never been concerned with such things.</p>
<h4>5. Notre Dame</h4>
<p><b>Best wins:</b> No. 20 Stanford</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 9 Oklahoma, No. 10 USC</p>
<p>Like Alabama, Notre Dame also needs to root for the Michigan turnaround potentially in progress to continue. Like Oregon, it also needs to hope that Stanford and USC don't take on any unnecessary losses. In fact, the Irish will be hoping that both of them take out the Ducks for obvious reasons. And also, like Kansas State in the previous slot, they'll be rooting hard for a Miami turnaround. Notre Dame enjoys tremendous advantages from its position as the lone power independent school, but variable schedule strength is one of the pitfalls. It could go either way with this team. Of course, as close as many of its wins have been, just worrying about not losing is probably enough for now.</p>
<h4>6. LSU</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 7 South Carolina</p>
<p><b>Loss:</b> No. 2 Florida</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 1 Alabama, No. 12 Mississippi State, No. 18 Texas A&M, possibly No. 2 Florida, No. 7 South Carolina, or No. 11 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>The Tigers are far from out of the national championship race after they rebounded at home against South Carolina. Picking up another home win on November 3 would be absolutely titanic. There is plenty here to build a great resumé heading into bowl season if they really have found their way to go forward.</p>
<h4>7. South Carolina</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 11 Georgia</p>
<p><b>Loss: </b>No. 6 LSU</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 2 Florida, No. 19 Clemson, possibly No. 1 Alabama or No. 6 LSU in the SEC Championship Game</p>
<p>Les Miles claimed that Baton Rouge is where opponents' dreams go to die, but the Gamecocks' dreams for everything but a 14-0 season are still on the table. The loss to LSU was unfortunate, but it was to a West team. Carolina still controls its destiny in the East, and a win in Atlanta would wipe away any ill residue from yesterday's tough loss.</p>
<h4>8. Oregon State</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> None.</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents: </b>No. 2 Oregon, No. 20 Stanford, possibly No. 10 USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game</p>
<p>The Beavers have been a good story so far, but they're going to need Wisconsin to resurrect itself (or Arizona State to keep it up) to get a fourth ranked opponent. They're resigned to laying in the weeds until they hit some of those ranked teams, though, which won't happen until November.</p>
<h4>9. Oklahoma</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> No. 17 Texas Tech, No. 25 Texas</p>
<p><b>Loss:</b> No. 4 Kansas State</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 13 West Virginia, No. 23 TCU</p>
<p>Most of what I said about K-State applies here, except that OU lost to the Wildcats. Also, except that Oklahoma has the benefit of a big time non-conference game against the Irish. That will be a huge game to bolster the resumé, but the uncomfortable fact remains that the Sooners don't control their destiny even in the Big 12 race right now.</p>
<h4>10. USC</h4>
<p><b>Best win:</b> None.</p>
<p><b>Loss:</b> No. 20 Stanford</p>
<p><b>Best remaining opponents:</b> No. 2 Oregon, No. 5 Notre Dame, possibly No. 2 Oregon again or No. 8 Oregon State in the Pac-12 Championship Game</p>
<p>The Trojans lost early to a decent team, something that doesn't often rule out a team from the national title race. They don't look like real contenders right now, but they have the schedule to get back up near the top if they win out.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/14/3502918/bcs-poll-rankings-alabama-oregon-florida-notre-dame-kansas-state
David Wunderlich