Team Speed Kills - LSU Vs. Florida: Previewing the Battle Between the Tigers and the GatorsSports are just better in the SEChttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52580/tsk_fav.png2012-10-06T19:18:36-04:00http://www.teamspeedkills.com/rss/stream/32114752012-10-06T19:18:36-04:002012-10-06T19:18:36-04:00Florida vs. LSU: Death of the West
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<figcaption>Sam Greenwood - Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A win by the Gators proves that one division is no longer the cream of the conference. But can the East really take over?</p> <p>Coming into Saturday, it had been two years almost to the day since an SEC East team defeated Alabama, LSU or Arkansas. Even with Arkansas crumbling this year under John L. Smith, the fact that South Carolina's 35-21 upset against the Tide remained the last time one of the Big Three from the West had lost an interdivision game remained the underpinning of the idea that the division was clearly the top of the SEC.</p>
<p>So much for all that. With a low-fi win on offense and a defense that helped LSU self-destruct, Florida toppled LSU in a move that showed that Alabama might be the only one left to preserve its divisions reputation. Suddenly, the East has three credible Top 10 teams and the West is down to one.</p>
<p>All of that could change soon enough. Texas A&M looks to be a solid team and Mississippi State hasn't done anything to take itself out of the running. Alabama is still there. And, of course, the number of undefeated teams in the SEC East will fall by one after Georgia faces South Carolina.</p>
<p>Neither team's offense was enough to win the game on its own. The Tigers and Gators combined for 460 yards of total offense. There were five turnovers in the game. Both Zach Mettenberger and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131897/jeff-driskel">Jeff Driskel</a> looked lost at times and held onto the ball far too long. Florida simply deployed the personnel it had better and took advantage of a crucial stretch of the third quarter when two LSU linebackers were down.</p>
<p>But the most important part of Saturday's game in the Swamp was that it provided even more proof that the West no longer runs the SEC. The question is whether the East can take over or can do no better than keeping up.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/6/3466290/florida-14-lsu-6-final-score-statsBrandon Larrabee2012-10-06T12:00:58-04:002012-10-06T12:00:58-04:00LSU, Florida and the Level of Competition
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire</figcaption>
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<p>LSU and Florida are set for a very tight game. It might come down to the one real gap in one of the teams' defense.</p> <p><i><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/lsu-tigers">LSU Tigers</a> at <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/florida-gators">Florida Gators</a>, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS</i></p>
<p>There's been a lot of talk in the last couple of weeks about how LSU plays to its competition, but that's not really fair. The Tigers opened the season by steamrolling several opponents, from North Texas to Washington to Idaho. That a pretty sizable range of performance there -- though it's not exactly a list of BCS bowl contenders -- and the Bayou Bengals blasted them all.</p>
<p>It wasn't until a trip to Auburn that LSU started looking beatable. They won that game, 12-10, but the questions started before Les Miles' postgame press conference. And a thoroughly underwhelming win at home at night against Towson feed the meme that LSU was playing down to its competition -- because, suddenly, the Tigers were.</p>
<p>There's not much to play down to here. The Gators have reeled off three relatively impressive wins in a row after a lackluster performance against the season-opening confection that was Bowling Green. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131897/jeff-driskel">Jeff Driskel</a> has been efficient if not always prolific, the running game has been effective and the defense is Top 25 material across the board, and Top 10 in several areas. Towson, they ain't.</p>
<p>Of course, much of the same could be said about LSU. Zach Mettenberger might be an improvement over last year's merry-go-round at quarterback, the air attack in Baton Rouge has still been lacking when it comes to the stat sheet. At the same time, three different running backs (<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131961/kenny-hilliard">Kenny Hilliard</a>, Michael Ford and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116008/spencer-ware">Spencer Ware</a>) are averaging more than 40 yards a game, with Hilliard close to 75. And the defense is fierce -- Top 10 in the five most significant categories (rushing, passing efficiency, passing yardage, total, scoring).</p>
<p>Put that together with the fact that rushing defense is perhaps the closest thing the Florida defense has to an Achilles' heel, and it's a recipe for a very narrow win for the visitors in the Swamp. Not because LSU is playing down to its competition -- because both teams are just that good.</p>
<p><i>LSU 23, Florida 20</i></p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/6/3463530/lsu-vs-florida-preview-tv-timeBrandon Larrabee2012-10-04T10:30:22-04:002012-10-04T10:30:22-04:00LSU Vs. Florida: The Battle of Two Running Games
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<figcaption>Chris Graythen - Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Tigers and Gators have their differences in details, but the blueprint of running first on offense is a shared trait.</p> <p>LSU likes to run the ball first on offense. Florida likes to run the ball first on offense. Other than he potential for the first sub-3 hour CBS SEC telecast ever (commercials on commercials on commercials), here's what that means for Saturday.</p>
<p>To cut straight to the chase, the Tigers are likely to find success on the ground throughout the game. As I <a target="_blank" href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/3/3447334/florida-lsu-preview-gators-secondary-tigers-passing">discussed yesterday</a>, Florida's defense is great against the pass but doesn't rank as highly against the run. You know how some short cornerbacks are said to play taller than they are? Well, Florida's defensive line plays smaller than it actually is in this respect. LSU does its best work on first down, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/team/365/rushing/offense/situational.html">gaining</a> 6.55 yards per carry. The line has had some <a target="_blank" href="http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2012/9/30/3433292/lsu-38-towson-22-a-viewers-guide-to-the-sunday-replay">issues with motivation</a> at times, but that shouldn't be a problem this weekend. The running attack doesn't seem to be quite as effective this year as last year, but it's still quite good.</p>
<p>I expect this side of the battle to be an intense one throughout. LSU often wears down opposing defenses by employing four running backs. Florida has been keeping a large rotation on its defensive line this year to try to keep guys fresh in the second half. It certainly has worked well for the Gators thus far, as they're <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/team/235/rushing/defense/situational.html">allowing</a> 1.2 fewer yards per carry in the second half than they do in the first half. However LSU's first and second half rushing attacks are separated by just 0.42 yards per carry, so I am skeptical of UF's ability to outlast the Tigers on conditioning and rotations alone. Based on what I've seen of the Gators' backup D-line, LSU's running backs will have the opportunity to score some points in the first half against it to possibly compensate for any second half slowdowns.</p>
<p>On the other side, Florida's rushing attack presents a problem that LSU hasn't had to deal with much: a quarterback who can move. Both <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/131897/jeff-driskel" class="sbn-auto-link">Jeff Driskel</a> and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/111909/trey-burton" class="sbn-auto-link">Trey Burton</a> have had a lot of success running the ball when called upon to do so, and they could very well be the key to the Gators' running game on Saturday.</p>
<p>I say that because LSU hasn't done all that well against people taking the snap and running it this year. I didn't go through LSU's defense against Idaho, but against the other four opponents, the Tigers had a grand total of one tackle for loss (versus North Texas) on plays with a designed quarterback run or someone else taking a direct snap and running. They didn't face many of those situations, as only Auburn did much of that, but let's take a closer look at that particular Tigers vs. Tigers matchup.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/136333/kiehl-frazier" class="sbn-auto-link">Kiehl Frazier</a> can move around, but he had only two designed runs. The first went for two yards before he fumbled, and the second went for four. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78531/onterio-mccalebb" class="sbn-auto-link">Onterio McCalebb</a> also took a direct snap and ran for nine yards on the play. Further, Auburn put in another mobile QB, backup Jonathan Wallace, for six plays that were all runs. He ran it for four, five, and six yards, respectively on his three carries. He also gave the ball away for plays of -7, 20, and eight yards. Wallace's six plays accounted for 35 percent of the Tigers' net rushing yards (not including sacks), but only 23 percent of their runs. Throw in Frazier's runs and McCalebb's direct snap and that's 49.5 percent of AU's rushing yards on only 34.6 percent of its rushing plays. The Plainsmen had 5.67 yards per carry on those plays versus 3.06 yards per carry on the others. LSU was much better at stopping runs when the guy taking the snap was no threat to carry the ball.</p>
<p>Another key to the game will be seeing just how much Florida tries to get third down conversions with runs. Quite frankly, they stink at it:</p>
<table align="center" border="1">
<caption><b>Offensive Third Down Conversions</b></caption>
<tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;">
<td>Team</td>
<td>3rd Down %</td>
<td>3D% Rushing</td>
<td>Difference</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arkansas</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
<td>47.4%</td>
<td>15.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kentucky</td>
<td>44.3%</td>
<td>54.5%</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mississippi</td>
<td>51.5%</td>
<td>55.6%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>LSU</b></td>
<td><b>43.9%</b></td>
<td><b>46.7%</b></td>
<td><b>2.7%</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>28.0%</td>
<td>29.2%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alabama</td>
<td>49.2%</td>
<td>50.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tennessee</td>
<td>42.9%</td>
<td>42.1%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanderbilt</td>
<td>23.2%</td>
<td>21.2%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>South Carolina</td>
<td>46.2%</td>
<td>43.2%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Missouri</td>
<td>27.4%</td>
<td>22.6%</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Georgia</td>
<td>46.8%</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas A&M</td>
<td>46.7%</td>
<td>40.0%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mississippi State</td>
<td>35.3%</td>
<td>25.0%</td>
<td>-10.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Florida</b></td>
<td><b>39.7%</b></td>
<td><b>29.0%</b></td>
<td><b>-10.6%</b></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<p>LSU is, if anything, slightly better at picking up third downs by rushing that they are overall. No one in the conference is worse than Florida, however, when it comes to getting conversions by rushing. The Gators are significantly worse with the run than their overall rate.</p>
<p>Making things potentially worse is the instability at left tackle for Florida. Senior <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78473/xavier-nixon" class="sbn-auto-link">Xavier Nixon</a> has been having trouble holding off true freshman <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/158421/d-j-humphries" class="sbn-auto-link">D.J. Humphries</a> for the job. Will Muschamp won't say who is going to start this weekend, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/sports/college-football/senior-offensive-tackle-xavier-nixon-once-a-herald/nSLzX/">only stating</a> that whoever practices better will go. LSU's defensive line straight up overpowered Florida's offensive line all throughout last year's game, and if there's a weak link in the chain, we could end up seeing a repeat performance.</p>
<p>Both of these teams want to run the ball to win. The first team to 30 passes loses. LSU's running game is probably the favorite on paper in this regard, but if Florida can loosen things up with Driskel and Burton running it, then the Gators could very well spring the upset by outrushing the Tigers.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/4/3448152/lsu-vs-florida-the-battle-of-two-running-gamesDavid Wunderlich2012-10-03T10:30:04-04:002012-10-03T10:30:04-04:00How Florida's Passing Defense Matches Up With LSU
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire</figcaption>
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<p>Florida's defense has been good against the pass so far, so that's got to mean good things against LSU's anemic throwing game, right?</p> <p>I spent a considerable amount of time looking at <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/2/3443310/lsus-passing-game-explained" target="_blank">LSU's passing game</a> yesterday. Today comes the flip side for this weekend's matchup: how Florida's secondary stands to fare against it.</p>
<p>Passing defense is the stronger of the two kinds for Florida. UF ranks fifth nationally in <a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/defense/split20/category02/sort02.html" target="_blank">passing efficiency defense</a> and third nationally in <a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/defense/split20/category02/sort04.html" target="_blank">yards per attempt allowed</a> (both with I-AA games removed for everyone), and the back seven has six interceptions already. By comparison, the unit is 49th nationally in <a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/leader/national/team/defense/split20/category01/sort02.html" target="_blank">yards per rush allowed</a>. This is quite curious indeed when you consider that all four opponents the defense has faced thus far are pass-oriented. Then again, perhaps they just focused more on the pass because of it and allowed a few more rushing yards as a result.</p>
<p>Anyway, LSU's passing attack consists mostly short stuff with a few long passes mixed in. Any Gator fan who hears that probably would break into a cold sweat when thinking about the game this weekend. That pretty well describes Bowling Green's passing attack, and while they're schematically different than the Tigers, it worked well against Florida. LSU has a lot better players, too.</p>
<p>Bowling Green? <i>Really</i>? Sure, let's talk Bowling Green for a sec. The Falcons passed for 226 yards on the Gators, second only to Tennessee on the year. A review of the <a href="http://mobile.xosdigitallabs.com/search-to-play/index1.php?sf=0112_fla_video" target="_blank">video box score</a> reveals that all 226 yards came on passes that went no more than 10 yards down the field through the air. BGSU's two quarterbacks, primarily <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/89071/matt-schilz">Matt Schilz</a>, were 25/52 (48.1%) on the game in all, but they were 25/38 (65.8%) on the shorter throws. Schilz even had completion streaks of eight and nine, respectively, on his short game.</p>
<p>Of course, Florida was playing everything as vanilla as possible in that game with SEC opponents making up the rest of September's slate. That, plus Kentucky just being hopeless, means that half of Florida's defensive game film so far is of questionable value. UK completed just six of 21 short throws with eight of the 15 incompletions being drops or bad throws. Meanwhile, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134696/johnny-manziel">Johnny Manziel</a> was 21/25 (84%) on his short throws. Quite a few of those were completions thanks to him keeping plays alive with his feet though, which is an option that the far less mobile Zach Mettenberger doesn't really have.</p>
<p>With all of that said, UF's four opponents connected on just 62% of their short throws, which is pretty low when you consider these are supposed to be the easy ones. Bad throws accounted for 17.6% of the short passes, many of which were induced by pressuring the quarterback, and 12% were pass breakups or interceptions. This defense is probably pretty good at defending short throws, provided that the quarterback isn't scrambling around a lot.</p>
<p>When it comes to those periodic deep throws, there is evidence that the secondary can be had once or twice a game. Tennessee is mostly responsible for revealing this much, with Justin Hunter and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/158468/cordarrelle-patterson">Cordarrelle Patterson</a> finding themselves open on occasion (though with the latter dropping his big gainer). LSU probably won't be the beneficiary of busted coverage on the long heaves, but Odell Beckham will get some openings a couple times during this game. Mettenberger needs to make sure he takes full advantage when that window opens.</p>
<p>Perhaps the biggest potential issue for Florida matching up against LSU in the passing game is open field tackling. Particularly against Bowling Green but a few times thereafter, Florida's cornerbacks have had problems with sure tackling. One huge thing that made Florida's secondary from 2008-09 so good was that guys like <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10161/joe-haden">Joe Haden</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/36014/janoris-jenkins">Janoris Jenkins</a>, and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10175/ahmad-black">Ahmad Black</a> were fundamentally sound tacklers in space. The only player on the current squad who I would put in their league is safety <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/111911/matt-elam">Matt Elam</a>.</p>
<p>Elam isn't <i>that</i> big as far as safeties go, at 5-10 and 202 lbs, and he has the most bulk of anyone in the defensive backfield. LSU doesn't have a monster set of receivers like it did when Dwayne Bowe and Michael Clayton were both going out for passes in purple and gold, but James Wright could be big enough to cause some problems. He's roughly the size of Patterson, and UF had a hard time actually getting him on the turf. Plus if the LSU coaches find a way to somehow get one of their running backs in space against a Gator defensive back other than Elam, well, "trucked" might not even be a strong enough term.</p>
<p>Ultimately, like seemingly everything else in this league, this battle will probably be decided in the trenches. LSU's offensive line has struggled of late, allowing eight sacks in the past three games after giving up just one in the first two contests. It doesn't help that fullback <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116021/j-c-copeland">J.C. Copeland</a> is out for the game after injuring his leg late against Towson.</p>
<p>Florida isn't a team that comes up with a ton of sacks, but its front seven has spent a lot of time in opposing backfields. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/36017/lerentee-mccray">Lerentee McCray</a> playing Will Muschamp's buck position has been particularly good, and the tandem of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/115263/sharrif-floyd">Sharrif Floyd</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/115261/dominique-easley">Dominique Easley</a> has been living up to the recruiting stars. Mettenberger's worst game easily came against Auburn, and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/112891/corey-lemonier">Corey Lemonier</a> was a huge part of making the game bad for him. Florida's defensive front can do similar things this weekend, it has a better offense backing it than Auburn's D did to try to take advantage of it.</p>
<p>My best guess for this game is that LSU will have limited success through the air. Mettenberger will complete at least one pass of 30 yards or more, but mostly he'll just stick to the underneath and sideline stuff he's been going for all year. Tennessee exploited opportunities to connect on intermediate (10-20 yards) routes in the middle of the field, but LSU has been reluctant to go after that space against anyone. If the Tigers don't explore their options there, then Florida should be mostly fine. If they do, then it could get ugly.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/3/3447334/florida-lsu-preview-gators-secondary-tigers-passingDavid Wunderlich2012-10-03T09:01:29-04:002012-10-03T09:01:29-04:00LSU vs. Florida: The Basics
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/62XZME-J-PXqeUJDJez8ntSnw7U=/0x370:3206x2507/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/494835/152056513.1349239326.jpg" />
<figcaption>John Sommers II - Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Setting the scene for one of the biggest games of the SEC season so far.</p> <p><b>Time, TV and Location:</b> 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS, Gainesville</p>
<p><b>What's at stake for Florida:</b> What has been one of the surest signs of the season's outcome for the last several years. Since Urban Meyer took over in 2005, Florida has won its first four games and then lost its fifth game every time the Gators have failed to win the SEC East. This could be an amazing coincidence -- Florida lost the fourth game (against Ole Miss) in 2008 before ripping off 10 straight wins to win the national championship. But it is a bizarre kind of coincidence that might cause you to worry. In three of the four years that Florida failed to win the division over that time frame, the schedule was cupcake/midmajor - cupcake/midmajor/Big East - Tennessee - Kentucky. The final game in the fourth year was the other half of Florida's home-and-home against Ole Miss. If currently 4-0 Florida loses this game, a little bit of air could begin to leak out of the balloon that has been the 2012 season.</p>
<p><b>What's at stake for LSU:</b> A win would almost instantly erase many of the questions that were raised by the Tigers' unimpressive wins against Auburn and Towson. Florida isn't the most impressive game on the LSU schedule -- there's every reason to believe that Alabama, if no one else, will be tougher -- but it will be the first game against an undefeated marquee program for LSU this year. It would also start off the most important stretch of the season on the right foot; games against South Carolina, at Texas A&M, against Alabama and against Mississippi State follow this one. If the Tigers lose the game Saturday, there will be no chance for them to regroup before a grinding stretch that will essentially take the Bayou Bengals through most of the remaining championship contenders. Winning would be a much-needed bit of morale at the beginning of that stretch -- essentially, proof to LSU players and fans that they can do this.</p>
<p><b>Line:</b> <a href="http://espn.go.com/college-football/lines">LSU by 2.5</a></p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/3/3447448/lsu-vs-florida-tv-time-preview-lineBrandon Larrabee2012-10-02T16:00:09-04:002012-10-02T16:00:09-04:00LSU's Passing Game Explained
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/g2uz-P1OgviWd5mwwh7t_mM7on0=/0x0:3990x2660/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/470039/20120922_tjg_ar5_420.1349206712.jpg" />
<figcaption>John Reed-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a deep dive into LSU's passing game to determine what's going on and why it hasn't lived up to expectations.</p> <p>I have watched every throw that Zach Mettenberger has had this season. Thanks to the efficiency of the SEC's <a target="_blank" href="http://www.secdigitalnetwork.com/SECGAMEDAY/SECGAMEDAYFOOTBALL.aspx?week=Week%204&season=2011/2012">video box scores</a>, I've watched many of them twice. I still don't think I can completely explain LSU's passing offense, but I'll give it my best shot.</p>
<p>Everyone seems to agree that the Tigers' passing game is not up to snuff. The announcers throughout the Towson game kept saying how Les Miles wanted to use the game as more or less passing practice, and they agreed at the end that it was not a fruitful practice. The praise <a href="http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2012/9/29/3431062/first-thoughts-lsu-38-towson-22" target="_blank">just rings in</a> from <i>And The Valley Shook</i> about that game as well:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>How horrible was this performance? Zach Mettenberger didn't just look indecisive, he looked absolutely lost.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Let's dig deep into this issue to see what we can find.</p>
<h4><b>Zach Mettenberger's Statistics</b></h4>
<p>First things first, here's Mettenberger's stat line so far:</p>
<table align="center" border="1"><tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;">
<td>Opponent</td>
<td>Comp.</td>
<td>Att.</td>
<td>Yards</td>
<td>Comp. %</td>
<td>TD</td>
<td>INT</td>
<td>Pass Eff.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>North Texas</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>192</td>
<td>73.1%</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>140.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Washington</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>66.7%</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>176.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Idaho</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>222</td>
<td>77.3%</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>182.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>169</td>
<td>55.6%</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>108.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Towson</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>238</td>
<td>57.7%</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>160.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Totals</b></td>
<td><b>78</b></td>
<td><b>119</b></td>
<td><b>1016</b></td>
<td><b>65.5%</b></td>
<td><b>6</b></td>
<td><b>2</b></td>
<td><b>150.5</b></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>Nothing in here quite suggests a passing game that is entirely broken. Mettenberger's only real down game was against Auburn, and he was over 10 yards per attempt against Washington and Idaho. His passing efficiency is not bad; a 150.5 on the season <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfbstats.com/2011/leader/911/player/split01/category02/sort02.html">would have led</a> the entire SEC last year. Offense is up in 2012 over '11 so it's not a completely apt comparison, but the point stands: it's not a bad score. Neither is his 65% completion percentage, nor his having thrown just two picks on the season.</p>
<p>LSU is 95th in the country with 203.2 passing yards per game. That sounds pretty bad, but it's not that far off from the team in the absolute middle, No. 62 Tulsa and its 236.6 yards per game. For Mettenberger to throw for 236.6 yards per game on his 119 attempts, he'd have to get 9.94 yards per attempt. That rate would place him 10th nationally instead of the 24th where he is currently. He simply doesn't throw for more yards because he doesn't throw more passes.</p>
<p>That said, receivers have dropped 12 passes on the year by my count. If you give Mettenberger those completions at a rate of 10 yards each, as 10 is his median completion distance, he's throwing for 227.2 yards per game on 9.54 yards per attempt. He'd be up to 9th nationally in the latter department. His completion percentage would also rise to 75.6% and he'd have at least one more touchdown if memory serves. With these drop-adjusted stats and an extra TD pass on the year, his passing efficiency would rocket up to 171.9.</p>
<h4>The Different Outcomes of LSU's Passing Game</h4>
<p>I kept track of the outcome of each of Mettenberger's passes. Here, I'm actually not concerned with yardage. I just want to know if the outcome was good (i.e. a completion) or bad, and if bad, what the cause was.</p>
<table align="center" border="1"><tbody>
<tr style="background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;">
<td>Outcome</td>
<td>N. Texas</td>
<td>UW</td>
<td>Idaho</td>
<td>Auburn</td>
<td>Towson</td>
<td>Total</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Completion</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bad Throw</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drop</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Good D</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Throw Away</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>INT</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sack</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fell Down</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>The "Throw Away" category includes a couple instances of intentional grounding.</p>
<p>The frustrations with Mettenberger's play against Towson come a bit clearer here. He set a season high for bad throws, he took three sacks (including getting blindsided on a the slowest corner blitz ever), and he even once tripped over his own two feet while dropping back. He also had a couple of balls disrupted by Towson defensive backs, something that had previously only been a problem against Auburn.</p>
<p>With that said, this still doesn't look like the residue of a hopeless passing game. Only about one in every 15 of Mettenberger's throws are bad, he's taken under two sacks a game (which aren't all his fault anyway), and defenders have only gotten their hands on eight of his 119 attempts.</p>
<h4>A Question of Usage</h4>
<p>Les Miles prefers to win by playing defense and running the ball. This is certainly no secret. Offensive coordinator Greg Studrawa is also the team's offensive line coach, and offensive line coaches tend to prefer running over passing too.</p>
<p>It's a clichéd term, but LSU really does seem to like to use the passing game as an extension of the running game a fair bit. It's not that Mettenberger necessarily throws to the running backs more often than most teams, but rather than he is asked to throw a lot of swing passes, screens, and quick slants. They're high percentage passes that don't travel through the air much, tend not to get broken up or picked off, and don't generally gain that many yards. It just feels weird to say that because "using the pass as an extension of the run" is usually a description of pass happy Air Raid-type outfits, not a ball control offense like LSU's. These Tigers really like to run, and sometimes when they pass, they're still kind of running the ball.</p>
<p>To wit, here is the distribution of Mettenberger's completions broken up in five-yard chunks:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1479865/MettDist.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="Mettdist_medium" class="photo" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1479865/MettDist_medium.jpg"></a> <br id="1349200220183"></p>
<p>Here you can see that a lot of Mettenberger's completions haven't gone for that many yards. I mentioned earlier that his median completion has gone for 10 yards; his average completion has gone for 13 yards. Some longer completions skew the nature of his play so far. In fact, more than half (53.8%) of his completions have gone for 10 yards or less. Even that much doesn't tell the whole story about his underneath throwing, as, for example, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116008/spencer-ware">Spencer Ware</a> took a dump off pass for 33 yards against Auburn. Some of the longer distances catalogued here were catch-and-run situations where a receiver took a short pass and made a lot of it.</p>
<p>For comparison, here is the distribution for <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray's</a> completions so far this year. He is the SEC's leading passer by several measures. Being in a Mike Bobo offense, he throws his fair share of screens and short stuff, but he's been more aggressive with his downfield passing.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1479921/MurrDist.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="Murrdist_medium" class="photo" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1479921/MurrDist_medium.jpg"></a> <br id="1349200519377"></p>
<p>Murray also has a spike in the 5-10 yard range, as I suspect most quarterbacks do. That said, it's not as high a spike. Only 43.7% of his completions have gone for 10 yards or less. The biggest difference in the two distributions is the 15-20 yard range, which makes up 14.1% of completions for Murray but only 7.7% of completions for Mettenberger.</p>
<h4><b>The Dead Zone</b></h4>
<p>I wish I had tracked the distance of all of Mettenberger's throws, but unfortunately I didn't. I can, however, give you a very truthy graphic of where his throws tend to go. This refers to how far the ball travels in the air relative to the line of scrimmage.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1480241/zones.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Zones_medium" class="photo" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1480241/zones_medium.png"></a> <br id="1349202793244"></p>
<p>The lion's share of Mettenberger's throws are no more than about 11 yards up the field. It's about split evenly between swing and screen passes and 5-10 yard sideline passes. He didn't throw too many over the middle short. A noticeable but smaller amount of passes go deep. Mettenberger has a strong arm, Odell Beckham is a great deep threat, and any offense has to take some chances down the field to open up things shorter.</p>
<p>Very few passes have come in the intermediate range. Most of those have just been longer versions of the sideline routes that Mettenberger hits at shorter ranges. You can probably count on one hand the number of passes LSU has completed with the ball 12-20 yards down the field between the hashmarks.</p>
<p>Like I said, I don't have the numbers to back this up, but this is what it feels like when watching LSU play. The frustration of the fans, manifested by periodic boos during the Towson game, probably comes from the fact that the passing game is repetitious and largely made up of either dink-and-dunk passes or 50/50 long heaves. The stats look fine after the game, as I discussed above, but it feels like a mess throughout.</p>
<h4>Wrapping It All Up</h4>
<p>So where does this all leave us with the LSU passing game? Who is responsible for the state that its in?</p>
<p>Mettenberger does get some of the blame. He's still getting settled in his new environment, so he's had some miscommunications with receivers from time to time. His accuracy tends to come and go at times as well, although that can be said about most quarterbacks.</p>
<p>The receiving corps does get some of it too. They seem to be better athletes than football players. In fact Towson's <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="#">Jordan Dangerfield</a>, who <a href="http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2012/09/post_82.html" target="_blank">had a good game</a> against the Tigers, according to the ESPN announcers said that LSU's receivers are better after the catch than before the catch. That means they are dangerous in the open field, but they don't always run the best routes. As best as my eyes could tell, they don't run a wide variety of routes either.</p>
<p>That last point is all on the coaching staff. I <a href="http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/8/29/3259532/zach-mettenberger-lsu-tigers-quarterback-offense" target="_blank">noted</a> before the season that the real opportunity that Mettenberger presented for LSU is not just that he might be better than Jordan Jefferson and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/10506/jarrett-lee">Jarrett Lee</a> were, but that he'd enable the coaches to run a more complex passing scheme to challenge defenses. They had to keep a small playbook for those guys last year, but this year they could open it up some.</p>
<p>"Open it up some" has basically meant that Mettenberger throws a few more deep bombs than the other guys did last year. I have seen no evidence yet that Miles, Studrawa, and Steve Kragthorpe intend to use a more sophisticated passing game. Perhaps it's due to the receivers being limited in their skills, or maybe it's just an aversion to risk. This is, after all, a team built around running and defense.</p>
<p>At this phase in the Les Miles era, the LSU passing game largely is what it is. Unless the coaches have been saving something up for five weeks specifically to unleash it in October, the Tiger pass attack is going to be a lot of short stuff with a few long throws mixed in. With the defense and running game that the team possesses, that might be enough to accomplish the goals of this year. It is, however, a disappointment for anyone who wanted to see more from this edition of the Tigers.</p>
https://www.teamspeedkills.com/2012/10/2/3443310/lsus-passing-game-explainedDavid Wunderlich