SEC Basketball Tournament Seeding Scenarios

It’s almost over.

The SEC basketball regular season wraps up with seven games on Saturday before the SEC Tournament begins next Wednesday in Nashville. That means it’s time to talk about seeding. The top and the bottom of the conference are largely set, but in the middle there’s a lot left to be solved. So let’s go through this.

The Kentucky Wildcats will be the #1 seed and the Florida Gators will be the #2 seed. While Florida is a game back in the standings and can still get a share of the conference title if they win at Vanderbilt on Saturday and Kentucky loses at Texas A&M, Kentucky holds the tiebreaker thanks to a win in its only matchup with South Carolina (while Florida split two games with the Gamecocks.)

The other two coveted double-byes are set as well: the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Arkansas Razorbacks. If South Carolina wins at Ole Miss on Saturday or Arkansas loses to Georgia, South Carolina will be the #3 seed and Arkansas will be the #4 seed. If Arkansas wins and South Carolina loses, Arkansas will be the #3 seed thanks to a head-to-head win over the Gamecocks. South Carolina would then be the #4 seed.

The Alabama Crimson Tide will be the #5 seed.

Three teams — the Georgia Bulldogs, the Ole Miss Rebels, and the Vanderbilt Commodores — are tied at 9-8. The key thing to this is that Georgia beat both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt. So Georgia will be the #6 seed if they win or if all three lose. Ole Miss will be the #6 seed if they win and Georgia loses, while Vanderbilt will be the #6 seed if they win and both Georgia and Ole Miss lose. The tiebreakers are pretty easy to figure out among these three.

That said, if any of the three lose and the Texas A&M Aggies win, things get complicated in the tiebreakers. The Aggies lost twice to Vanderbilt but beat both Ole Miss and Georgia. So here are the tiebreaker scenarios if A&M wins:

UGA, Ole Miss win, Vanderbilt loses: UGA #6, Ole Miss #7, Vanderbilt #8, Texas A&M #9

UGA, Vanderbilt win, Ole Miss loses: UGA #6, Vanderbilt #7, Texas A&M #8, Ole Miss #9

UGA wins, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt lose: UGA #6, Vanderbilt #7, Ole Miss #8, Texas A&M #9

Vanderbilt, Ole Miss win, UGA loses: Ole Miss #6, Vanderbilt #7, Texas A&M #8, UGA #9

Vanderbilt wins, Ole Miss and UGA lose: Vanderbilt #6, Texas A&M #7, UGA #8, Ole Miss #9

Ole Miss wins, Vanderbilt and UGA lose: Ole Miss #6, Vanderbilt #7, UGA #8, Texas A&M #9

UGA, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt all lose (four-way tie): UGA #6, Vanderbilt #7, Texas A&M #8, Ole Miss #9

If Texas A&M loses, they’ll be the #9 seed unless the Tennessee Volunteers beat Alabama, which would make Tennessee the #9 seed and Texas A&M the #10 seed thanks to the Vols’ win in College Station back in December.

The Auburn Tigers will be the #11 seed and the Mississippi State Bulldogs will be the #12 seed. Note that Auburn has now played on Wednesday night every year since the SEC Tournament expanded to five days. (And, well, Mississippi State would have if not for Missouri being ineligible last year.)

The LSU Tigers won on Wednesday to pull into a tie with the Missouri Tigers, so LSU will be the #13 seed unless Missouri can win at Auburn and LSU loses to Mississippi State. LSU beat Missouri in their only meeting back in January.