|Texas A&M at Florida
|Kentucky at Alabama
|Vanderbilt at Missouri
|Georgia at Tennessee
|Auburn at Ole Miss
|South Carolina at Mississippi State
|Arkansas at LSU
Last week, I complained about the SEC trying to cram too many games into too few time slots, and this week’s schedule is better in that regard. There’s a noon tipoff between Texas A&M and Florida, which the Gators should win, but you never know. Then CBS has the Kentucky-Alabama game at 1, and, well... nobody’s really taking Alabama’s tournament chances seriously thanks to a slow start and mediocre RPI and SOS numbers, but they’re now 7-4 in the SEC and let’s just say a win over Kentucky — on the heels of a win at South Carolina on Tuesday — will have them pretty squarely on the bubble.
In the mid-afternoon slot, Georgia’s come close a lot and still hasn’t actually pulled out any quality wins, and at 13-11, 4-7 in the SEC their season is close to slipping away. Tennessee can put a dagger in the Bulldogs’ season and continue building their own case, but I still think Georgia is actually a decent team so this will be interesting. Vanderbilt-Missouri is interesting if you’re a fan of either team and that’s about it.
In the evening, Auburn looks to continue its two-game winning streak as the Tigers head to Ole Miss. That’s followed by another upset alert: South Carolina goes to Mississippi State and while the Bulldogs have lost three of four, you have to wonder just how South Carolina responds to the quadruple-overtime loss to Alabama. The night closes with Arkansas desperate for a win to stop the bleeding and going to a place where wins have... let’s say not been that hard to get as LSU has now dropped ten in a row (and 12 of its last 13.)
Odds and Picks
Season to Date: 91-109-1 ATS
- Texas A&M at Florida (-14): Florida is on a five-game winning streak (both straight up and ATS) and has won those five by an average of 28 ppg. I’m not picking against a team that’s on that kind of a roll.
- Kentucky at Alabama (+7.5): I’m not really too sure what’s going on with Kentucky right now. 7.5 points seems a little low, but the Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games (granted, they’re 6-3 straight up in that stretch.) That’s not a trend I want to pick against.
- Vanderbilt (-7) at Missouri: Vanderbilt’s biggest weakness this year has been perimeter defense and Missouri’s biggest weakness is shooting... so, I’ll pick Vanderbilt to allow Missouri to get a bunch of open looks from three and Missouri to miss them anyway.
- Georgia (+5) at Tennessee: The Vols are rolling right now, having won and covered in five of six, but Georgia is desperate to salvage its season and I think the Bulldogs will at least keep it close, if not win outright.
- Auburn (+4) at Ole Miss: I’m betting on this one to go about like the first meeting between the two: high scoring and down to the wire, but I think Auburn will steal a road win this time.
- South Carolina (-5.5) at Mississippi State: South Carolina has the country’s best defensive efficiency, and they’re facing a team that has been shut down by Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee in recent weeks. Do the math here, Mississippi State won’t score enough to keep this close.
- Arkansas (-5) at LSU: I like to live dangerously.