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The Southeastern Conference announced the men’s basketball conference schedule for the 2016-17 season on Tuesday, ensuring that no one would talk about it buried underneath all the stories about Week 1. Conference play begins with five games on December 29 -- the first time since 1991 that the SEC has opened conference play prior to the New Year.
Well, almost no one.
The SEC’s 18-game schedule ensures that not everybody gets to play everybody else twice. And the unbalanced schedules mean that the final standings can come down to who you played twice and who you only had to play once. Last year, per Ken Pomeroy, the difference between the most difficult conference schedule (LSU, .7527 average Pythagorean rating adjusting for the location of the game) and the least difficult (South Carolina, .6977) was roughly the difference between playing the #61 team in KenPom (ironically, South Carolina) and the #85 team (Mississippi State) on an average night.
(It also might have made a difference between the NCAA Tournament and the NIT for the Gamecocks. Remember, their strength of schedule and lack of quality wins were issues for the selection committee.)
So let’s break down the conference schedules. To get a basic idea of the strength of each team’s schedule, I’ve taken each opponent’s conference record from 2015-16. Opponents on the schedule twice are counted double; for teams on the schedule once, road opponents have three wins added to their total while home opponents have two wins subtracted.
Alabama
Home-and-home: Mississippi State, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Missouri
One game, home: Vanderbilt, Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss
One game, away: Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Tennessee
Adjusted conference record: 154-170 (.475)
Arkansas
Home-and-home: Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt
One game, home: Mississippi State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia
One game, away: Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Auburn
Adjusted conference record: 164-160 (.506)
Auburn
Home-and-home: Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, Alabama
One game, home: Tennessee, Mississippi State, Florida, Arkansas
One game, away: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Adjusted conference record: 163-161 (.503)
Florida
Home-and-home: Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
One game, home: Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas A&M
One game, away: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State
Adjusted conference record: 171-153 (.528)
Georgia
Home-and-home: Auburn, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky
One game, home: Missouri, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, LSU
One game, away: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas
Adjusted conference record: 162-162 (.500)
Kentucky
Home-and-home: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida
One game, home: Arkansas, Auburn, South Carolina, LSU
One game, away: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Missouri
Adjusted conference record: 162-162 (.500)
LSU
Home-and-home: Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas
One game, home: Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee
One game, away: Missouri, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Georgia
Adjusted conference record: 157-167 (.485)
Mississippi State
Home-and-home: Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, South Carolina
One game, home: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Florida
One game, away: Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Adjusted conference record: 165-159 (.509)
Missouri
Home-and-home: Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
One game, home: LSU, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
One game, road: Georgia, Mississippi State, Florida, Tennessee
Adjusted conference record: 168-156 (.519)
Ole Miss
Home-and-home: Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, Mississippi State
One game, home: Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
One game, away: Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Alabama
Adjusted conference record: 148-176 (.457)
South Carolina
Home-and-home: Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida, Mississippi State
One game, home: Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas
One game, away: Kentucky, Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt
Adjusted conference record: 157-167 (.485)
Tennessee
Home-and-home: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky
One game, home: Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Alabama
One game, away: Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn, LSU
Adjusted conference record: 172-152 (.531)
Texas A&M
Home-and-home: Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Missouri
One game, home: Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama
One game, away: South Carolina, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida
Adjusted conference record: 161-163 (.497)
Vanderbilt
Home-and-home: Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M
One game, home: Auburn, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Mississippi State
One game, away: LSU, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri
Adjusted conference record: 165-159 (.509)
So, how does everybody stack up?
- Tennessee (.531)
- Florida (.528)
- Missouri (.519)
- Mississippi State (.509)
- Vanderbilt (.509)
- Arkansas (.506)
- Auburn (.503)
- Georgia (.500)
- Kentucky (.500)
- Texas A&M (.497)
- LSU (.485)
- South Carolina (.485)
- Alabama (.475)
- Ole Miss (.457)
Now, clearly, nobody plays themselves — which is at least part of the reason why both Tennessee and Missouri are near the top. That said, Florida was a .500 team in conference play last year; the Gators’ schedule can reasonably be called difficult. Vanderbilt is the only team to draw both Kentucky and Texas A&M — last year’s co-champs — twice each, though the Commodores’ schedule looks manageable otherwise.
And at the opposite end, Ole Miss’s conference schedule is a clear outlier. The Rebels play a total of eight games against the bottom four teams in the conference from last season. Alabama draws home-and-homes against three of the four, and the Tide wind up with a soft schedule as well.
At the end of the day, schedule strength isn’t going to make a huge difference; perhaps a game difference in the conference standings. Of course, one game could well be the difference in the conference title race. And Andy Kennedy may wind up cursing the SEC schedule makers if his team is on the bubble.