Monday SEC Tournament Seeding Outlook

With another round of games out of the way, it's time to update the SEC Tournament seeding picture. If the season ended today, here's the order in which the teams would be in:

1. Kentucky (16-0)

2. Arkansas (12-4)

3. Texas A&M (11-5)

4. LSU (10-6)

5. Georgia (10-6)

6. Ole Miss (10-6)

Among the teams tied at 10-6, LSU is 3-0, Georgia is 2-1, and Ole Miss is 0-4 against the other tied teams. Those records determine the order of the teams.

7. Vanderbilt (7-9)

8. Florida (7-9)

9. Alabama (7-9)

Among the teams tied at 7-9, Vanderbilt is 3-1, Florida is 2-1, and Alabama is 0-3 against the other tied teams. Those records determine the order of the teams.

10. Tennessee (6-10)

11. South Carolina (5-11)

12. Mississippi State (5-11)

13. Auburn (4-12)

14. Missouri (2-14)

What If Scenarios

For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to make a couple of assumptions and focus on the top teams. The two assumptions are that Kentucky will finish undefeated and that none of the bottom four teams will beat any of the six NCAA Tournament contenders. If either of those assumptions turn out wrong, I'll address it later.

Kentucky has already clinched the No. 1 seed. That belongs to the Wildcats no matter what happens on the court this week.

Arkansas will clinch the No. 2 seed with any win or having Texas A&M losing at least once. With the Hogs playing South Carolina midweek, the assumptions say the seed belongs to them.

Texas A&M will clinch the No. 2 seed by going 2-0 and having Arkansas go 0-2. That probably won't happen, but there it is. If A&M goes 2-0 and Arkansas does win at least one game, then the Aggies will clinch the No. 3 seed. Furthermore, TAMU can clinch the No. 3 seed with a loss (i.e. going 1-1) if LSU goes 2-0 or Ole Miss takes on a loss. A&M can win a head-to-head tie against LSU, and it can win a three-way tie against LSU and Ole Miss. It loses the tiebreaker against just Ole Miss.

LSU can clinch the 3-seed by going 2-0 and having Texas A&M go 0-2.

Ole Miss can clinch the 3-seed by going 2-0 with LSU and Texas A&M each taking on at least one loss.

Georgia cannot get to the 3-seed under my given assumptions because the Bulldogs play Kentucky. That will cap their record at 11-7, and at the least, Arkansas can't go any worse than 12-6.

The "No Upsets" Scenario

If we somehow make it through the week with no one losing to a team that is currently below it in the standings, here is how the seeding would work out:

1. Kentucky (18-0)

2. Arkansas (14-4)

3. Texas A&M (13-5)

4. Ole Miss (12-6)

5. LSU (11-7)

6. Georgia (11-7)

7. Vanderbilt (8-10)

8. Florida (7-11)

9. Alabama (7-11)

10. Tennessee (7-11)

Among the teams tied at 7-11, Florida is 2-0, Alabama is 1-1, and Tennessee is 0-2 against the other tied teams. Those records determine the order of the teams.

11. Mississippi State (6-12)

12. Auburn (5-13)

13. South Carolina (5-13)

14. Missouri (2-16)

If you take this exact scenario but have LSU upset Arkansas, then the Tigers jump to the 4-seed and knock Ole Miss down to the 5-seed.