Last week: 8-2 straight up, 5-3 against the spread
Season: 83-17 straight up, 58-30-1 against the spread
These lines, as always, come from the Yahoo pick 'em game. However because I'm traveling for Thanksgiving, I wrote this up on Wednesday morning when the Tuesday lines were the only ones available. Also because I pre-wrote this on Wednesday, it's not going to have any late-breaking developments. If Dak Prescott can't play because he burned his hand while deep frying a turkey—and he's a Louisianan living in Mississippi, so yeah, that's a possibility—well, that's why it's not noted here.
Arkansas (-13.5) over Missouri 27-13
I'm not confident in this pick at all, but I think the Razorback offense will do just enough to win by the requisite 14 points. Mizzou's offense just isn't getting better this year, so it probably won't score enough to cover.
Georgia (-5) over Georgia Tech 28-17
I know records aren't supposed to matter in rivalry games, but the Jackets would be on a nine-game losing streak right now had FSU actually showed up ready to play in their game together. UGA is a better team all around than GT is and should win.
Louisville (-4) over Kentucky 34-12
The Cardinals are a young team that needed time to round into shape, but they've rounded into shape nicely. Meanwhile, Kentucky isn't good at much of anything.
Clemson (-17.5) over South Carolina 44-10
I'd like to believe that the Gamecocks will rally around Shawn Elliott one more time, but I think they're just done. I'll bet everyone in Columbia is just ready to move on, and once the Tigers get a two or three score lead in the first half, that'll be that.
Alabama (-13.5) over Auburn 39-13
I'm not sure there's a single thing that the Tigers do better than the Tide. Well, except of course for special teams. I know Gus Malzahn supposedly has Nick Saban's number and the Tigers pushed the Tide last year despite being far apart in record, but this year's AU team is more like 2011's squad than 2014's. That one, if you remember, lost the Iron Bowl 42-14. There's only so much that schematic wizardry can do when you just don't have the players.
Tennessee (-16.5) over Vanderbilt 23-9
Truth be told, I'm not terribly confident that the Vols will score more than 16.5 points total.
Ole Miss (-1) over Mississippi State 34-27
This comes down to the fact that I trust the Rebel defense more than the Bulldog defense. State's penchant for giving up big plays will probably be the difference.
Florida State (-2) over Florida 30-13
Pressure has been building on Florida for a while, and I think Dalvin Cook is about to burst the dam. The early week injury report for Florida had two defensive linemen as out, two defensive linemen as doubtful (including the best of them, Jonathan Bullard), and another defensive lineman as questionable. That's not ideal when facing someone as great as Cook is. On top of that, three of the Gators' already iffy five starting offensive linemen are banged up and on the questionable list. Simply put, FSU will win in the trenches and control the clock with Cook.
And of course, the 13 points for the Gators are from two TDs with a missed PAT rather than a TD with two made field goals.
LSU (-5) over Texas A&M 28-21
Believe it or not, A&M is actually five spots ahead of LSU in the S&P+ defensive rankings right now. So why do I have LSU winning and covering? The Aggies are 94th against the run. Leonard Fournette is still one of the best players in the country, and he finally has a chance to carry his team to a win again.