Last week: 5-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread
Season: 75-15 straight up, 53-27-1 against the spread
I mentioned this in the schedule post, but I think this week is one for underdogs to have a good time overall. Among the games that have lines, I have underdogs covering in five of them. It just feels like this is something of a lull in the schedule and many favorites won't be on point for winning by large margins.
As always, the point spreads come from the Yahoo pick em game.
Florida (-31) over FAU 34-17
The Gators will be down a few players on the defensive line and might be down ones of its best on the O-line since LT David Sharpe re-injured his foot this week. Give me the team with more talent to pull away late, but it will take a while to do so.
Ole Miss (-4) over LSU 30-20
When I watched the tape of the Tigers' loss to Arkansas, I couldn't believe how poor the LSU secondary looked at times. That unit will now face one of the conference's best passing attacks. Being without Denzel Nkemdiche will hurt the Rebels against the run, but I'll still go with the rested Rebels coming off of a bye to beat a team that has just played Alabama and Arkansas in consecutive weeks.
Auburn (-32.5) over Idaho 38-23
The Vandals aren't as bad as you think they are, and they have been able to score some points. I don't think they'll threaten to win, but they should be able to cover this big a line.
Georgia (-14.5) over Georgia Southern 27-24
Jeremy Pruitt was on the 2011 defensive staff that allowed over 300 rushing yards to GSU, albeit as the DBs coach. The most points his 2013 FSU defense allowed was to option-heavy Boston College. UGA lost to the flexbone and Georgia Tech a year ago, though it wasn't all on the defense. Pruitt's units are vulnerable to option is what I'm saying, and when you can't count on the offense to run up a bunch of points, you take the triple option team to cover. I'd lock this game up if I did locks, and I came thisclose to picking GSU outright.
Arkansas (-3.5) over Mississippi State 34-20
The Razorbacks are hitting their stride in November again, while MSU is probably tired after getting beat up by Alabama. This is one underdog I'm not taking.
Tennessee (-8.5) over Missouri 17-13
The Vols have quietly played poorly of late, nearly giving away their game against South Carolina two weeks ago and only beating a truly terrible North Texas squad 24-0. Now they have to play Mizzou's defense? On the road? After MU has several things to rally around? I think the Vols' defense will do enough to win this one, but like with UGA-GSU, I nearly took the underdog to win outright.
Kentucky (-24.5) over Charlotte 41-10
When I moved away from Charlotte in February of 2013, the 49ers program hadn't played a snap yet. UK should win this game comfortably, but I still almost picked UNCC to cover because of how much the Wildcats have been collapsing of late.
Texas A&M (-7) over Vanderbilt 19-16
I think John Chavis will hold the anemic Commodore offense down enough to pull out this win, but man, I wanted to take Vandy on the basis of its strong defense. If the 'Dores are able to prevail, things might start getting uncomfortable for Kevin Sumlin a little bit.
South Carolina over The Citadel 24-13
Alabama over Charleston Southern 41-3