Last week: 5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread
Season: 50-7 straight up, 32-16-1 against the spread
I don't have much time to write this stuff up this week, so it's going to be short and sweet. We've got a lot of great games, though.
As always, the point spreads come from the Yahoo pick 'em game.
Mississippi State (-13) over Louisiana Tech 41-30
The maroon Bulldogs should be able to win this one, but the red and blue Bulldogs are good enough at scoring points—and the MSU defense is inconsistent enough—to keep it closer than 13.
Ole Miss (-10.5) over Memphis 27-21
The Rebels shouldn't be caught napping because I think everyone knows Memphis is solid by now. But it's a road game for them, and I think the Tigers will be able to put enough on the scoreboard to cover. Justin Fuente also has lots of reason to throw everything at this game because a win will put him at the front of the winter's coaching line.
Alabama (-4) over Texas A&M 31-24
Here's the thing: i don't think the Aggies quite have enough playmakers on offense to pull this one out. However, its playmakers on defense in Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall might be able to harass Jake Coker enough to throw the Crimson Tide offense out of whack for long stretches. I am tentatively taking Bama, but I'm not confident.
Vanderbilt (+3) over South Carolina 29-21
Your guess is as good as mine what we're getting from the Gamecocks this week. I have no way to predict where their heads will be, so I'm just taking the game at face value. I'm not aware of a time when G.A. Mangus has ever called an offensive game without Steve Spurrier around, and the team won't get much, if anything, from game time decision Lorenzo Nuñez. Advantage: Vanderbilt defense.
LSU (-9.5) over Florida 20-17
I get why the line moved from Tigers by six to Tigers by 9.5 after the Will Grier and Deiondre Porter news. Plus, it's Tiger Stadium at night.
However, Treon Harris has played in road games at Tennessee and Florida State before, and the Gators nearly beat LSU with Jeff Driskel and a worse offensive scheme last year. Harris is better equipped than Grier is to deal with the aggressive LSU defense anyway, as Grier never did figure out when to stay and when to run when pressured. Leonard Fournette will carry the day, but it won't be by more than one score.
Georgia (-16) over Missouri 17-10
There is no way I'd pick this Bulldog offense to cover a three-score line against a defense as good as Missouri's is. What are the oddsmakers thinking? This makes no sense.