Last week: 12-1 straight up, 7-2 against the spread
This is not a good week to be picking games. There are a lot of large lines thanks to weak teams being featured in a lot of places, and that makes for tricky picking.
Florida (-3) over Miami (FL) 27-10
Miami (FL) has some good guys on offense in Duke Johnson and Stephen Morris, but Florida is about where it was last year, and Miami (FL) is not quite ready yet to knock off a team that good.
Kentucky (-17) over Miami (OH) 24-13
This is what I was talking about. It seems easy on the surface: don't take this UK team by 17 over anyone, right? Except Miami (OH) got splattered by Marshall last week. I still am going to be cautious here, but if I was putting real money on anything, I wouldn't touch this with a 39.5 foot pole.
Tennessee (-13.5) over WKU 33-23
This game is ripe for over thinking too. WKU isn't bad; they beat Kentucky and have Petrino. But, Kentucky is awful, and WKU didn't win by a mile. Tennessee won by a lot last week and actually was the national No. 1 in both offensive and defense S&P+. But, it's a new coach and that was against a I-AA team. Here's where I throw up my hands and take the points.
Missouri (-17) over Toledo 44-30
This has shootout potential, and as my man Ty says, take the points in a shootout.
South Carolina (+3) over Georgia 38-27
I love South Carolina in this game. UGA will get some points, but the offensive line looked bad and the defense was going vanilla due to youth. I really like South Carolina in this one.
LSU (-34.5) over UAB 45-6
Hit it, Admiral Ackbar. This line is a big, flashing, red trap. LSU is coming home after a big win and will now play against a Sun Belt tomato can. The offense looks a lot better, so I'm going to pick the Tigers to cover, but this could easily be a 30-6 snoozer if they decide they don't care. It all depends on how much practice Les Miles and Cam Cameron want the first teamers to get.
Auburn (-13) over Arkansas State 40-31
I bet this one will not be all that different than AU's game last week. It'll be tight for a half, Auburn will look like the better team in the second half, but it won't quite pull away.
Mississippi State over Alcorn State 27-9
Arkansas over Samford 55-20
Ole Miss over SE Missouri State 59-17
Texas A&M over Sam Houston State 52-27
Vanderbilt over Austin Peay 49-10