Year2's Week 4 Picks

Last Week: 7-1 straight up, 5-3 against the spread

Season: 29-4 straight up, 15-9 against the spread

As always, the lines come from the Yahoo! pick 'em game. Sorry for not having an update on it this week. I'll get one up after this weekend.

Vanderbilt (-29) over UMass 50-3

UMass is basically a I-AA program still despite reclassifying a couple years ago. Vandy under James Franklin has been pretty good at running up the score on really bad teams. The Yahoo! game doesn't have a line for this, but the consensus is VU by 29.

Georgia (-32.5) over North Texas 47-17

The Bulldogs might cover this, but I have a feeling that with LSU a week away, there are dangers for both overlooking this one and shutting it down early to keep guys healthy. Best go with the Mean Green, which isn't as bad as it has been in past years.

Florida (-16.5) over Tennessee 39-13

Let's go over a few things here. Will Muschamp's Gators have scored 30 or more in exactly a third of their games against BCS opponents, but they're two-for-two in doing so against UT. Florida's offense has improved over last year (no, really), and the law of averages says they're almost certainly not going to turn it over five times again. Tennessee's defense probably hasn't improved much over last year, while Florida's is nearly as good as it was last year. Also, UT is basically trying out new quarterbacks who have never played. Add it all up, and yes, this Florida team can cover a line this large.

Rutgers (-1) over Arkansas 30-27

I don't think this Arkansas team is ready to win a road game like this, so I'm going with the home team. That's really all there is to this one.

Texas A&M (-28.5) over SMU 54-28

I can imagine this going two ways. One, A&M has a let down after the big loss last week and wins despite it being uncomfortably close. The other is that A&M is mad and rips off a bunch of points with the starters, but then the backup defense gives up a bunch of points in garbage time. Either way, it points to the Ponies covering.

Alabama (-39.5) over Colorado State 44-10

Could there be a hangover from the big win? I think so. This is a lot of points to cover a week after the Crimson Tide played the game it's been focused on all offseason, particularly against a former Bama coordinator. It won't be a nail biter, but I don't think the margin is going to hit 40.

Mississippi State (-14) over Troy 34-17

This game would be a classic let down/look ahead special with the close loss to Auburn last week and LSU next on the slate, but the Bulldogs have a bye before having to take on the Bayou Bengals. I think they have found something good with Dak Prescott and will bounce back against a team they learned not to overlook last year.

LSU (-17) over Auburn 40-20

I think this will be a nice, close game for a while before LSU's superior roster wears down and overwhelms Auburn.

Missouri (-2) over Indiana 50-44

Someone must know something I don't, because this line began at -4 and got cut in half during the week. Oh well. I don't know whatever that something is, so I'm going with Mizzou.