One method I use to evaluate coaches' performance in March is to look at how they do versus what their seeding would imply.
Any seed 9 or worse implies a first round exit. A win as one of those seeds gets someone a "better" rating for outperforming the seed line, but I actually give them no rating for losing in the first round. It keeps the clutter down. For seeds 5-8, a first round win is a "match", a first round loss is "worse", and anything beyond the second round is "better". For 3 and 4-seeds, a Sweet 16 appearance is a match. For 2-seeds, an Elite Eight appearance is a match. For 1-seeds, a Final Four appearance is a match and a win there gets them a better rating.
Here are the track records of some notable coaches in this year's Big Dance:
|John Thompson III||2||0||4|
The only coach among these who is able to get a better rating consistently more often than any other rating is Tom Izzo. He's the king of March. Also of note is that some coaches almost never match their seeding: Billy Donovan, Steve Fisher, Mike Krzyzewski, Thad Matta, John Thompson III, Jay Wright, and to a lesser extent Rick Pitino.