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One method I use to evaluate coaches' performance in March is to look at how they do versus what their seeding would imply.
Any seed 9 or worse implies a first round exit. A win as one of those seeds gets someone a "better" rating for outperforming the seed line, but I actually give them no rating for losing in the first round. It keeps the clutter down. For seeds 5-8, a first round win is a "match", a first round loss is "worse", and anything beyond the second round is "better". For 3 and 4-seeds, a Sweet 16 appearance is a match. For 2-seeds, an Elite Eight appearance is a match. For 1-seeds, a Final Four appearance is a match and a win there gets them a better rating.
Here are the track records of some notable coaches in this year's Big Dance:
Coach | Better | Match | Worse |
Steve Alford | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Jim Boeheim | 5 | 8 | 10 |
Mike Brey | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Tom Crean | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Jamie Dixon | 0 | 3 | 4 |
Billy Donovan | 5 | 1 | 5 |
Mark Few | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Steve Fisher | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Tom Izzo | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Lon Kruger | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Mike Krzyzewski | 10 | 2 | 10 |
Thad Matta | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Mike Montgomery | 4 | 2 | 7 |
Rick Pitino | 6 | 3 | 5 |
Bo Ryan | 3 | 5 | 2 |
Bill Self | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Tubby Smith | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Brad Stevens | 2 | 1 | 0 |
John Thompson III | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Buzz Williams | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Roy Williams | 6 | 8 | 8 |
Jay Wright | 3 | 0 | 2 |
The only coach among these who is able to get a better rating consistently more often than any other rating is Tom Izzo. He's the king of March. Also of note is that some coaches almost never match their seeding: Billy Donovan, Steve Fisher, Mike Krzyzewski, Thad Matta, John Thompson III, Jay Wright, and to a lesser extent Rick Pitino.