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Year2's Week 11 Picks

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A bunch of noon games, an interlude, and then the big one.

Kevin C. Cox

Last week: 6-0 straight up, 1-3-1 against the spread

Season: 70-12 straight up, 38-31-2 against the spread

As always, the point spreads come from the Yahoo! pick 'em game.

Florida (-10) over Vanderbilt 17-10

I expect this to be frustrating and no fun at all for the Gators. In other words, I expect it to be a normal game for the 2013 Florida football team. I don't think Vandy will pull it out because it's just not what it has been the past two years right now, but it's not outside the realm of possibility for sure.

Missouri (-13.5) over Kentucky 34-10

This line actually shed half a point as the week went along. People are crazy. Mizzou will roll.

Auburn (-7.5) over Tennessee 39-13

Again, people are crazy. Tennessee has nothing right now, and Auburn is playing well. This is free money.

Ole Miss (-17) over Arkansas 40-17

If this game was in Arkansas, I might pick the Hogs to cover. As it is, Ole Miss should handle things quite well at home. Arkansas is really struggling right now, while the Rebels are picking up steam.

Texas A&M (-19.5) over Mississippi State 38-27

I can't believe this line is larger than Mizzou over Kentucky. Both teams like to run, so that should shorten the game and hinder A&M's ability to cover. Plus, I think MSU has enough on the lines to push the Aggies around just a bit and keep it closer than 20 points.

Alabama (-12.5) over LSU 37-27

These teams match up really well against each other, so I really hope it's going to be a good game. LSU's passing attack will test Bama's defense like nothing since the A&M game, and this is also Bama's first game against a decent opponent since September. Will the Tide remember what it's like to play someone who puts up resistance?

I am tempted some to pick LSU to win outright, but I will not. The reason? SEC upsets don't happen at night. This game would count as a mismatch if the teams F/+ numbers hold roughly steady from here on out—47.8% for Bama, and 25.0% for LSU—and we're far enough along in the season that they probably will. The fact that it's in Tuscaloosa means little to me, because recent history in the series shows the road team has little to be afraid of. But, it's at night, and that does mean something in this conference at least.

I would love to see LSU pull it out, because I love a BCS bonfire as much as anyone. However, this is not the week for Bama to lose.

The Bakery

Georgia over Appalachian State 50-13