Strange things have sometimes happened in the Egg Bowl during the current century, but there's also been one relative constant: The home team has won. In the last 13 editions of the annual rivalry tilt between the Rebels and the Bulldogs, the home team has gone 11-2. Sometimes, such as when Houston Nutt beat the last Sly Croom team senseless, the outcome has made sense or been predictable; other times, such as Dan Mullen's first win the following year in the series that he promotes, less so.
This year, the sensible answer would be for Ole Miss to win the game. The Rebels are clearly better than the Bulldogs across the board, particularly on offense, where Hugh Freeze's team ranks 20th nationally in terms of total yardage. Mississippi State isn't terrible on offense, but they've topped 30 points against one SEC team this year: Texas A&M. This is a team that's played Arkansas and Kentucky. Oh, and did we mention that Dak Prescott is probably not going to play in this game?
But it's a Thursday night game, and it's the Egg Bowl, and Mississippi State is at home. I'm not even really sure how they're going to do it, and it's more of a hunch than anything I can break down statistically. I'll take the Bulldogs to win, though, slowing down the Ole Miss offense just enough to come up with the winning points.
Mississippi State 24, Ole Miss 21