Last week: 5-2 straight up, 2-5 against the spread
Season: 51-12 straight up, 24-31 against the spread
This is rapidly turning into a lost year for my picks against the spread, but I won't quit. I just need an Arkansas-style bounce back. (Note: forget I said that if Arkansas pulls another 180 and tanks the rest of the way).
LSU -3 over Texas A&M 19-13
The Tigers will do their best to drag this game into the mud, and I think they'll be able to do it. The ends will likely keep Johnny Manziel in the pocket, and if he gets out, Kevin Minter and Eric Reid will put him on the ground. Texas A&M's pass rush will cause Zach Mettenberger a lot of problems too, but I think the Tigers' running game will win it for them.
Vanderbilt (-7) over Auburn 27-17
Vandy plays its best football at home, and Auburn is a complete mess. Give me the Commodores.
Florida (-3.5) over South Carolina 24-20
Florida's defense will probably be able to contain Connor Shaw like LSU did last week, and if you can do that, you can beat the Gamecocks.
Georgia (-26) over Kentucky 34-3
Georgia will probably be a bit sloppy despite the bye, as I expect they'll be looking ahead to the Cocktail Party next week. Even so, they'll probably still cover because Kentucky is that bad.
Mississippi State (-19) over Middle Tennessee 38-20
Call it a late, backdoor cover.
Alabama (-20) over Tennessee 40-21
I can't decide if I should pick Alabama to cover because it's a rivalry (figuring they won't take their foot off of the gas) or pick Tennessee to cover because it's a rivalry (figuring they'll play inspired ball). I'll say Tennessee does, but just barely.