Last week: 7-3 straight up, 4-3 against the spread
This week is super cupcake-y. All lines are from the pick 'em game.
Kentucky (-11.5) over Central Michigan 20-13
The Wildcats must show up and play better in this one, because the Chippewas are better than Western Kentucky is. Not by leaps about bounds like when Dan LeFevour was there, but they're no Sun Belt doormat.
Mississippi State (-6.5) over Auburn 38-27
I'm might end up regretting this pick by halftime, but I just think State is the better team overall. Last week's close win over Utah State for Auburn didn't look like a fluke; the Tigers were getting pushed around on their home field by a WAC team. Certainly Mississippi State's lines can do the same.
Alabama (-10) over Penn State 17-6
I'm not expecting much offense, but turnovers will allow the teams to get some points on the board. I don't expect the Lions to find the end zone though.
Tennessee (-5) over Cincinnati 33-30
Cincy had a rough 2010, but massive attrition led to that. The Bearcats should be in better shape, and I didn't altogether like what I saw when watching about three quarters of Tennessee against Montana. UT's defense looked very susceptible, and if Zach Collaros is on, Cincy could easily win this outright.
South Carolina (-3) over Georgia 28-17
Georgia actually did a more than adequate job against Boise State's running game, meaning this game is likely all on Stephen Garcia from South Carolina's perspective. I expect the Gamecocks' defensive line to cause enough trouble to keep the score down and give their team the crucial East division tiebreaker.
Ole Miss (-) over Southern Illinois 27-9
This team could use some practice on offense, it looks like.
Arkansas (-36) over New Mexico 62-14
I'm honestly surprised this line isn't bigger.
Florida (-23) over UAB 38-10
I'm picking Florida to cover largely on the strength of the defense. I'm expecting another gallon of vanilla extract on offense, so that could easliy cause the Gators not to cover.
UConn (+1.5) over Vanderbilt 24-23
I know UConn's probably not any good this year and the game's in Nashville, but Vandy's favored? Is the general feeling out there about James Franklin that much higher than Paul Pasqualoni?
LSU (-) over Northwestern State 33-0
I expect the LSU coaches to largely treat this like a scrimmage, so I don't expect a pinball-like score.