Last week: 5-0 straight up; 1-3 against the spread
Season: 47-13 straight up; 23-25-1 against the spread
By the time you read this, I'll already be on the road to Jacksonville for the WLOCP. The place I stay at has no Internet access, so I won't be around much this weekend. Enjoy the games.
Arkansas (-10) over Vanderbilt 38-17
The Hogs are saddled with road games in the JP Sports slot two weeks in a row. That's dangerous stuff; SEC upsets are about twice as likely in games that kickoff before 3:00 than those that begin later than that (venue makes no real difference). I don't expect Arkansas to get stuck in the quicksand in consecutive weeks, but stranger things have happened.
Georgia (-3) over Florida 28-21
The reason Florida won last year was because of gaining turnovers and UGA not being able to stop the option. The Gators can't turn opponents over to save their lives this year, and the option is a far smaller component of the offense. It's true that UF is a different team when fully healthy than what we all saw during its three-game losing streak when the offense couldn't do a thing with freshman quarterbacks. Georgia is probably a better team overall though, and Isaiah Crowell will probably have a big game like some other running backs we've seen have against UF.
Mississippi State (-10) over Kentucky 23-10
As a rule, I don't like taking teams this shaky as a double digit favorite on the road. That said, this year's UK team is an exception to many rules.
Auburn (-12) over Ole Miss 44-23
Auburn isn't good enough for me to advise you to bet the house on the Tigers, but I think last week was probably the Rebels' last gasp for the season. Maybe I'm wrong and Houston Nutt instead found the recipe he was looking for, but we'll see. Do keep your eye on Ole Miss freshman WR Nickolas Brassell; he's been phenomenal the last two weeks and might single-handedly keep his team in this one for a while.
South Carolina (-4) over Tennessee
I don't know what to expect from this game at all. South Carolina has to get creative without Marcus Lattimore, but Tennessee is starting a freshman quarterback. I'm betting on the better defense here, but I just don't know what's going down.