Team Speed Kills: FanPosts

An Alternate Set of Bowl Projections

2012-12-15T16:12:32Z

The main set of bowl projections is still here, and that's the method I've used for a few years now.

I've wanted to overhaul the method for a while now to include an adjustment for pace, as that's a much more important aspect of today's game. In the past, most everyone was either slow or moderate. Now, we've got teams that like to go quickly all the time and hit 80 plays per game. The old method adjusts for opponent; this one does opponent and pace.

I don't feel like taking the time to document this new method in case it turns out to be awful, but here's the gist. It first projects how many plays each team will run in the game in the same way that the other system does for points. It then projects yards per play in the same way. Finally, it projects a point total for each team based on the yardage.

We'll see how this goes. Far and away the biggest change from the other one is in the Las Vegas Bowl, where Washington goes from being blown out there to a slight win here. Other big changes include the Orange, where FSU goes from a slight win to a touchdown win, and the Chick-fil-A Bowl where LSU goes from a slight loss to a field goal winner.

USC 35-30 GT + points

Bowl	Teams	Favorite	Projection	Pick
New Mexico	Nevada vs. Arizona	Arizona -9.5	Nevada 43-40	Nevada + points
Famous Idaho Potato	Toledo vs. Utah State	USU -10.5	Utah St. 33-23	Toledo + points
Poinsettia	BYU vs. SDSU	BYU -2.5	BYU 24-19	BYU
St. Petersburg	UCF vs. Ball State	UCF -7	UCF 34-29	Ball State + points
New Orleans	ECU vs. LA-Lafayette	ULL -6	ULL 35-31	ECU + points
Las Vegas	Washington vs. Boise St.	BSU -5.5	UW 19.0-18.7	UW + points
Hawaii	Fresno St. vs SMU	Fresno -12.5	Fresno 37-21	Fresno St.
Little Caesar's	WKU vs. Central Michigan	WKU -5.5	WKU 31-25	WKU
Military	SJSU vs. Bowling Green	SJSU -7	SJSU 23-19	BGSU + points
Belk	Cincinnati vs. Duke	Cincy -7	Cincy 37-24	Cincinnati
Holiday	Baylor vs. UCLA	Pick	UCLA 44-40	UCLA
Independence	Ohio vs. LA-Monroe	ULM -7	ULM 33-30	Ohio + points
Russell Athletic	Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech	VT -2.5	Rutgers 21-19	Rutgers + points
Car Care of Texas	Minnesota vs. Texas Tech	TTU -13	TTU 30-22	Minn + points
Armed Forces	Rice vs. Air Force	AFA -1	AFA 31-28	Air Force
Pinstripe	West Virginia vs. Syracuse	WVU -4	Syracuse 42-37	Syracuse + points
Fight Hunger	Navy vs. Arizona St.	ASU -14.5	ASU 29-22	Navy + points
Alamo	Texas vs. Oregon St.	OSU -2	OSU 30-27	Oregon St.
Buffalo Wild Wings	TCU vs. Michigan St.	TCU -2.5	TCU 19-17	Michigan St. + points
Music City	NC State vs. Vanderbilt	Vandy -7	VU 25-22	NCSU + points
Sun	USC vs. Georgia Tech	USC -10	USC 35-29	GT + points
Liberty	Iowa State vs. Tulsa	Pick	Tulsa 29-19	Tulsa
Chick-fil-A	LSU vs. Clemson	LSU -4	LSU 30.0-25.6	LSU
Gator	Miss St. vs. Northwestern	MSU -2	MSU 27-26	N'Western + points
Heart of Dallas	Purdue vs. Oklahoma St.	OSU -16.5	OSU 41-28	Purdue + points
Capital One	Georgia vs. Nebraska	UGA -10	UGA 33-27	Nebraska + points
Outback	South Carolina vs. Michigan	SC -5	Michigan 23-21	Michigan + points
Rose	Wisconsin vs. Stanford	Stanford -6.5	UW 19.3-19.0	Wisconsin + points
Orange	NIU vs. Florida St.	FSU -13	FSU 32-24	NIU + points
Sugar	Louisville vs. Florida	Florida -13.5	Florida 25-19	Louisville + points
Fiesta	Oregon vs. Kansas St.	Oregon -9.5	Oregon 36-31	KSU + points
Cotton	Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma	TAMU -4.5	TAMU 37-32	Texas A&M
BBVA Compass	Pittsburgh vs. Ole Miss	Miss -3.5	Pitt 27-26	Pittsburgh + points
GoDaddy	Kent St. vs. Arkansas St.	ASU -4	KSU 33.5-33.2	Kent St. + points
BCS NCG	Alabama vs. Notre Dame	Bama -10	Bama 19-14	Notre Dame + points

Green in the "Projection" column indicates a correct pick straight up; green in the "Pick" column indicates a correct pick against the spread. You can guess what red means.

The main set of bowl projections is still here, and that's the method I've used for a few years now.

USC 35-30 GT + points

Bowl	Teams	Favorite	Projection	Pick
New Mexico	Nevada vs. Arizona	Arizona -9.5	Nevada 43-40	Nevada + points
Famous Idaho Potato	Toledo vs. Utah State	USU -10.5	Utah St. 33-23	Toledo + points
Poinsettia	BYU vs. SDSU	BYU -2.5	BYU 24-19	BYU
St. Petersburg	UCF vs. Ball State	UCF -7	UCF 34-29	Ball State + points
New Orleans	ECU vs. LA-Lafayette	ULL -6	ULL 35-31	ECU + points
Las Vegas	Washington vs. Boise St.	BSU -5.5	UW 19.0-18.7	UW + points
Hawaii	Fresno St. vs SMU	Fresno -12.5	Fresno 37-21	Fresno St.
Little Caesar's	WKU vs. Central Michigan	WKU -5.5	WKU 31-25	WKU
Military	SJSU vs. Bowling Green	SJSU -7	SJSU 23-19	BGSU + points
Belk	Cincinnati vs. Duke	Cincy -7	Cincy 37-24	Cincinnati
Holiday	Baylor vs. UCLA	Pick	UCLA 44-40	UCLA
Independence	Ohio vs. LA-Monroe	ULM -7	ULM 33-30	Ohio + points
Russell Athletic	Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech	VT -2.5	Rutgers 21-19	Rutgers + points
Car Care of Texas	Minnesota vs. Texas Tech	TTU -13	TTU 30-22	Minn + points
Armed Forces	Rice vs. Air Force	AFA -1	AFA 31-28	Air Force
Pinstripe	West Virginia vs. Syracuse	WVU -4	Syracuse 42-37	Syracuse + points
Fight Hunger	Navy vs. Arizona St.	ASU -14.5	ASU 29-22	Navy + points
Alamo	Texas vs. Oregon St.	OSU -2	OSU 30-27	Oregon St.
Buffalo Wild Wings	TCU vs. Michigan St.	TCU -2.5	TCU 19-17	Michigan St. + points
Music City	NC State vs. Vanderbilt	Vandy -7	VU 25-22	NCSU + points
Sun	USC vs. Georgia Tech	USC -10	USC 35-29	GT + points
Liberty	Iowa State vs. Tulsa	Pick	Tulsa 29-19	Tulsa
Chick-fil-A	LSU vs. Clemson	LSU -4	LSU 30.0-25.6	LSU
Gator	Miss St. vs. Northwestern	MSU -2	MSU 27-26	N'Western + points
Heart of Dallas	Purdue vs. Oklahoma St.	OSU -16.5	OSU 41-28	Purdue + points
Capital One	Georgia vs. Nebraska	UGA -10	UGA 33-27	Nebraska + points
Outback	South Carolina vs. Michigan	SC -5	Michigan 23-21	Michigan + points
Rose	Wisconsin vs. Stanford	Stanford -6.5	UW 19.3-19.0	Wisconsin + points
Orange	NIU vs. Florida St.	FSU -13	FSU 32-24	NIU + points
Sugar	Louisville vs. Florida	Florida -13.5	Florida 25-19	Louisville + points
Fiesta	Oregon vs. Kansas St.	Oregon -9.5	Oregon 36-31	KSU + points
Cotton	Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma	TAMU -4.5	TAMU 37-32	Texas A&M
BBVA Compass	Pittsburgh vs. Ole Miss	Miss -3.5	Pitt 27-26	Pittsburgh + points
GoDaddy	Kent St. vs. Arkansas St.	ASU -4	KSU 33.5-33.2	Kent St. + points
BCS NCG	Alabama vs. Notre Dame	Bama -10	Bama 19-14	Notre Dame + points

Green in the "Projection" column indicates a correct pick straight up; green in the "Pick" column indicates a correct pick against the spread. You can guess what red means.

Compu-Picks Ratings, Post Week Eleven - The Top of the SEC

2012-11-13T05:29:22Z

Source: http://cfn.scout.com/2/1239321.html

One extra feature I'm adding to this week's Compu-Picks analysis is a closer look at the top six SEC teams, who are currently ranked 4th through 9th in the BCS.

There are a lot of different ways of looking at these six teams, who are of course all very good, but I'm going to try and focus this discussion on two different sets of results: the games they all played against each other, and the games they played against everyone else.

Let's start with the games they played against each other. Given that they're collectively undefeated against all other opponents, it's interesting to look at these results and see what they can tell us:

Team	Opp Name	Loc	Score
Alabama	Louisiana State	AWAY	21 - 17
Florida	Louisiana State	HOME	14 - 6
Florida	South Carolina	HOME	44 - 11
Florida	Texas A&M	AWAY	20 - 17
Georgia	Florida	NEUTRAL	17 - 9
Louisiana State	South Carolina	HOME	23 - 21
Louisiana State	Texas A&M	AWAY	24 - 19
South Carolina	Georgia	HOME	35 - 7
Texas A&M	Alabama	AWAY	29 - 24

This isn't quite a full round robin, but it's most of the way there. And in these games, here's how everyone has done:

Florida	3-1
Alabama	1-1
Georgia	1-1
LSU	2-2
South Carolina	1-2
Texas A&M	1-2

Were we to just look at these games and nothing else, Florida would be a pretty obvious #1, the bottom 3 would be some combination of South Carolina, Texas A&M (worst records) and Georgia (blowout loss, close win), and Alabama and LSU would probably rate close to each other. Obviously this is a simplification (especially since A&M's win at Alabama is MUCH better than this analysis suggests), but it's worth noting how each of these teams have done against the best opponents they've faced to date.

The rest of the analysis after the jump...

Of course, just those games doesn't tell the whole story. So what can we gleam from the rest of the games? Let's take a look at each of these teams' other 1-A games, with each game rated from best to worst performance.

Rank	Team	Opp Name	Loc	Score
1	Alabama	Arkansas	AWAY	52 - 0
2	Texas A&M	Mississippi State	AWAY	38 - 13
3	Louisiana State	Washington	HOME	41 - 3
4	Alabama	Missouri	AWAY	42 - 10
5	Alabama	Mississippi State	HOME	38 - 7
6	Alabama	Tennessee	AWAY	44 - 13
7	Alabama	Western Kentucky	HOME	35 - 0
8	Georgia	Vanderbilt	HOME	48 - 3
9	Alabama	Michigan	NEUTRAL	41 - 14
10	Texas A&M	Arkansas	HOME	58 - 10
11	Texas A&M	Southern Methodist	AWAY	48 - 3
12	Georgia	Auburn	AWAY	38 - 0
13	Georgia	Mississippi	HOME	37 - 10
14	Florida	Vanderbilt	AWAY	31 - 17
15	Alabama	Mississippi	HOME	33 - 14
16	Georgia	Missouri	AWAY	41 - 20
17	Texas A&M	Auburn	AWAY	63 - 21
18	South Carolina	Missouri	HOME	31 - 10
19	Louisiana State	Mississippi State	HOME	37 - 17
20	Florida	Tennessee	AWAY	37 - 20
21	Alabama	Florida Atlantic	HOME	40 - 7
22	Florida	Kentucky	HOME	38 - 0
23	South Carolina	Arkansas	HOME	38 - 20
24	South Carolina	East Carolina	HOME	48 - 10
25	Louisiana State	North Texas	HOME	41 - 14
26	Florida	Missouri	HOME	14 - 7
27	Georgia	Florida Atlantic	HOME	56 - 20
28	South Carolina	Kentucky	AWAY	38 - 17
29	South Carolina	Alabama-Birmingham	HOME	49 - 6
30	South Carolina	Vanderbilt	AWAY	17 - 13
31	Florida	Louisiana-Lafayette	HOME	27 - 20
32	Texas A&M	Mississippi	AWAY	30 - 27
33	Florida	Bowling Green State	HOME	27 - 14
34	South Carolina	Tennessee	HOME	38 - 35
35	Georgia	Tennessee	HOME	51 - 44
36	Louisiana State	Idaho	HOME	63 - 14
37	Texas A&M	Louisiana Tech	AWAY	59 - 57
38	Georgia	Kentucky	AWAY	29 - 24
39	Georgia	Buffalo	HOME	45 - 23
40	Louisiana State	Auburn	AWAY	12 - 10

Here is where Alabama's resume truly shines. Much like in last week's analysis of top unbeaten teams, Alabama almost exclusively occupies the top half of the list. The single game that's in the bottom half, their win over FAU, is (barely) in the bottom half more because it's just an irrelevant game against a bad opponent than due to anything disapointing about the performance.

Conversely, LSU plays the role of Notre Dame, almost exclusively occupying the bottom half of the list, including the worst performance of the lot, by a material margin, in their awful 12-10 squeaker over a train wreck Auburn squad. If you want to know why Compu-Picks puts LSU near Georgia and South Carolina instead of close to the top, this is why. To give context to that performance, the only losses by these six teams to get a game grade below 12-10 were the blowout losses by Georgia and South Carolina.

South Carolina is a similar story. Nothing like the Auburn showing, but still a bunch of lower-level performances. Too many struggles, not enough elite or even close to elite performances.

Texas A&M's major strength really was that their Alabama win was way better than just "won at a team 1-1 against the group," but at the same time they have a number of quite solid performances, and generally ended up on the higher rather than the lower end.

Florida's showings on this list are kind of blah. Nothing awesome, nothing sucky. A lack of elite performances is why they are rated 3rd best among the 6 despite a 3-1 record against the group. Still a solid resume, but you can see how things have slipped a bit when they haven't been facing top-notch opposition.

Finally, Georgia. Similar to Florida, there's some on the top end and some on the bottom end. 2 of the 3 worst games and 3 of the worst 6 definitely hurt them, but at the same time they had a few really solid performances too. Overall it's a mixed bag, but still enough to put them a touch above LSU and South Carolina.

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

Team	Opp Name	Loc	Score
Alabama	Louisiana State	AWAY	21 - 17
Florida	Louisiana State	HOME	14 - 6
Florida	South Carolina	HOME	44 - 11
Florida	Texas A&M	AWAY	20 - 17
Georgia	Florida	NEUTRAL	17 - 9
Louisiana State	South Carolina	HOME	23 - 21
Louisiana State	Texas A&M	AWAY	24 - 19
South Carolina	Georgia	HOME	35 - 7
Texas A&M	Alabama	AWAY	29 - 24

This isn't quite a full round robin, but it's most of the way there. And in these games, here's how everyone has done:

Florida	3-1
Alabama	1-1
Georgia	1-1
LSU	2-2
South Carolina	1-2
Texas A&M	1-2

The rest of the analysis after the jump...

Rank	Team	Opp Name	Loc	Score
1	Alabama	Arkansas	AWAY	52 - 0
2	Texas A&M	Mississippi State	AWAY	38 - 13
3	Louisiana State	Washington	HOME	41 - 3
4	Alabama	Missouri	AWAY	42 - 10
5	Alabama	Mississippi State	HOME	38 - 7
6	Alabama	Tennessee	AWAY	44 - 13
7	Alabama	Western Kentucky	HOME	35 - 0
8	Georgia	Vanderbilt	HOME	48 - 3
9	Alabama	Michigan	NEUTRAL	41 - 14
10	Texas A&M	Arkansas	HOME	58 - 10
11	Texas A&M	Southern Methodist	AWAY	48 - 3
12	Georgia	Auburn	AWAY	38 - 0
13	Georgia	Mississippi	HOME	37 - 10
14	Florida	Vanderbilt	AWAY	31 - 17
15	Alabama	Mississippi	HOME	33 - 14
16	Georgia	Missouri	AWAY	41 - 20
17	Texas A&M	Auburn	AWAY	63 - 21
18	South Carolina	Missouri	HOME	31 - 10
19	Louisiana State	Mississippi State	HOME	37 - 17
20	Florida	Tennessee	AWAY	37 - 20
21	Alabama	Florida Atlantic	HOME	40 - 7
22	Florida	Kentucky	HOME	38 - 0
23	South Carolina	Arkansas	HOME	38 - 20
24	South Carolina	East Carolina	HOME	48 - 10
25	Louisiana State	North Texas	HOME	41 - 14
26	Florida	Missouri	HOME	14 - 7
27	Georgia	Florida Atlantic	HOME	56 - 20
28	South Carolina	Kentucky	AWAY	38 - 17
29	South Carolina	Alabama-Birmingham	HOME	49 - 6
30	South Carolina	Vanderbilt	AWAY	17 - 13
31	Florida	Louisiana-Lafayette	HOME	27 - 20
32	Texas A&M	Mississippi	AWAY	30 - 27
33	Florida	Bowling Green State	HOME	27 - 14
34	South Carolina	Tennessee	HOME	38 - 35
35	Georgia	Tennessee	HOME	51 - 44
36	Louisiana State	Idaho	HOME	63 - 14
37	Texas A&M	Louisiana Tech	AWAY	59 - 57
38	Georgia	Kentucky	AWAY	29 - 24
39	Georgia	Buffalo	HOME	45 - 23
40	Louisiana State	Auburn	AWAY	12 - 10

South Carolina is a similar story. Nothing like the Auburn showing, but still a bunch of lower-level performances. Too many struggles, not enough elite or even close to elite performances.

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

SEC Will Not Suspend LaMichael Fanning for Controversial Tackle

2012-10-17T17:47:15Z

The conference will not be handing Fanning a suspension for the body slam/suplex of Missouri running back Russell Hansbrough.

Here's video of the hit:

And, as juxtaposition, the hit that got Ole Miss safety Trae Elston suspended for a game:

The conference will not be handing Fanning a suspension for the body slam/suplex of Missouri running back Russell Hansbrough.

Here's video of the hit:

And, as juxtaposition, the hit that got Ole Miss safety Trae Elston suspended for a game:

The decision to suspend or not is a judgment call, certainly, but I'm left wondering what precedent Slive is setting, or if precedent matters to him at all. The Elston hit was unflagged and unremarked upon by the announcers, while the Fanning hit was flagged and cause for lengthy discussion.

Fixing the SEC's Conference Schedule

2012-10-15T18:50:49Z

Problem: With expansion in 2012 to 14 teams, there are now 7 annual games teams must play with only 1 open slot for the 6 teams in the other division to rotate in on. This means a home&home series takes 12 years. It won't feel like 1 conference. Players will miss 2 conference opponents in their 4-years on campus. 1x every 6 years isn't enough. This year's schedule was thrown together at the last minute. They're working on the permanent 2013+ schedule now.

Goal: Maintain important rivalries while increasing how often SEC schools play each other.

Step 1: Mike Slive writes a nicely-worded letter to the NCAA asking permission to continue having the SEC Championship Game without East & West divisions.

Step 2: The rule change puts all 14 teams in 1 pool & matches up #1 vs #2 in the conference championship.

Step 3: Each team is matched up with their top 5 rivals for annual games. For Bama, they'll get Auburn, Tenn, LSU, Ole Miss & Miss St every year.

Step 4: The other 8 teams are rotated through the remaining 3 conference game slots. This way Bama in our example will get to play Florida, Jawja, Sakerlina, Vandy, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mizzou & A&M 3x each every 8 years (3 games/yr for 8 years = 24 slots for 8 teams, 3x each). Fits evenly. A full cycle of 3 home games vs Florida & 3 away games vs Florida (6x total) will take 16 years. & repeat.

I listed out the 5 annual rivals for each team below. I also included the # of times the teams have met since the SEC's 1st conference game in 1933 until after this season 2012 for a total of 80 years, how far the campus' are apart & if there's a folksy nickname for the matchup. At the very bottom is the rivalries that didn't make the cut.

Florida:
1. Georgia - 79x, 350 mi - World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
2. Auburn - 71x, 315 mi
3. Sakerlina - 25x, 360 mi
4. Miss St - 51x, 530 mi
5. Kentucky - 59x, 710 mi

Game 9. FSU - 57x, 150 mi - The Governor's Cup
Game 10. Miami - 54x, 335 mi - Seminole War Canoe Trophy

Florida loses LSU (59), Vandy (46) & Tenn (36) but more importantly gets Auburn back. Plus Miss St.

Auburn:
1. Bama - 65x, 160 mi - Iron Bowl
2. Georgia - 79x, 170 mi - The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry
3. Florida - 71x, 315 mi
4. Miss St - 73x, 245 mi
5. A&M - 2x, 750 mi

Game 9. Ga Tech (56x, 110 mi), Clemson (24x, 230 mi) & FSU (18x, 205 mi) play each 2x every 6 yrs

Auburn loses the Tiger Bowl vs LSU (38) & still can't play Tenn (49) every year but gets Florida back, keeps a game in neighbor state Miss & takes 1 for team playing newcomer A&M.

Georgia:
1. Florida - 79x, 350 mi - World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
2. Auburn - 79x, 170 mi - The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry
3. Sakerlina - 55x, 160 mi - The Border Bash
4. Tenn - 31x, 230 mi
5. Kentucky - 66x, 400mi

Game 9. Ga Tech - 80x, 70 mi - Clean, Old Fashioned Hate
Game 10. Clemson - 37x, 75 mi (play 2x every 6 yrs)

Georgia maintains it's 5 East rivals except for Vandy (58x) & continues ducking Bama (40x) & not playing Ole Miss (45x). Needs to play

South Carolina:
1. Georgia - 55x, 160 mi - The Border Bash
2. Tenn - 27x, 260 mi - The Halloween Game
3. Florida - 25x, 360 mi
4. Mizzou - 3x, 870 mi
5. A&M - 0x, 1,070 mi

Game 9. Clemson - 80x, 130 mi - Palmetto Bowl
Game 10. NC State (41x), UNC (37x) & Virginia (25x) play each 2x every 6 yrs

As a newcomer w/ less history in the SEC, they must play Mizzou in the new Columbia Capitol Cup & A&M.

Tennessee:
1. Bama - 79x, 170 mi - 3rd Saturday in October
2. Kentucky - 80x, 170 mi - Battle for the Barrel
3. Vandy - 78x, 180 mi
4. Georgia - 31x, 230 mi
5. Sakerlina - 27x, 260 mi

Game 9. Ga Tech (35x), UNC (21x) & Va Tech (4x) play each 2x every 6 yrs
Game 10. Clemson - 5x, 190 mi (play 2x every 6 yrs)

Florida (37x) falls off. Tenn is used to playing West division teams pre-92 so that's okay. Ole Miss (55x) & Auburn (49x) stay off the annual schedule.

Kentucky:
1. Tenn - 80x, 170 mi - Battle for the Barrel
2. Vandy - 70x, 215 mi
3. Georgia - 66x, 400mi
4. Florida - 59x, 710 mi
5. Mizzou - 2x, 460 mi

Game 9. Louisville - 19x, 75 mi - Battle for the Governor's Cup
Game 10. Va Tech (16x) play 2x every 6 yrs

Kentucky has a small border w/ Mizzou so they add them. Still won't play Ole Miss (42x) or LSU (56x).

Vanderbilt:
1. Tenn - 78x, 180 mi
2. Kentucky - 70x, 215 mi
3. Ole Miss - 69x, 230 mi
4. Arkansas - 9x, 530 mi
5. Mizzou - 3x, 430 mi

Game 9. Wake (15x)
Game 10. Duke (11x) play 2x every 6 yrs

Vandy moves more north & west w/ it's annual schedule w/ the border they share w/ Arkansas & Mizzou. Vandy keeps ducking Bama (70x). Georgia (58x) & Florida (46x) fall off.

Missouri:
1. Arkansas - 4x, 290 mi
2. A&M - 13x, 775 mi
3. Vandy - 3x, 430 mi
4. Kentucky - 2x, 460 mi
5. Sakerlina - 3x, 870 mi

Game 9. Kansas - 79x, 165 mi - Border War
Game 10. K-State (79x), Iowa St (79x) & Nebraska (78x) play each 2x every 6 yrs

Rookie Mizzou gets its' 3 border startes, its' XII buddy & the new Columbia Capitol Cup.

Alabama:
1. Auburn - 65x, 160 mi - Iron Bowl
2. Tenn - 79x, 170 mi - 3rd Saturday in October
3. LSU - 61x, 350 mi - Saban Bowl
4. Miss St - 76x, 85 mi
5. Ole Miss - 41x, 160 mi

Bama won't play Vandy (70x) or Georgia (40x). Keep their 5 biggest rivals around them in the heart of SEC country.

Mississippi:
1. Miss St - 79x, 100 mi - Egg Bowl
2. LSU - 78x, 345 mi - Magnolia Bowl
3. Vandy- 69x, 230 mi
4. Arkansas - 53x, 380 mi
5. Bama - 41x, 160 mi

Ole Miss is in the middle of the new SEC & they keep the teams they want to play. They won't play Tenn (55x), Georgia (45x) or Kentucky (42x).

Mississippi State:
1. Ole Miss - 79x, 100 mi - Egg Bowl
2. Bama - 76x, 85 mi
3. Auburn - 73x, 245 mi
4. LSU - 79x, 300 mi
5. Florida - 51x, 530 mi

Miss St gets a brutal schedule but that's now new for them.

Louisiana State:
1. Bama - 61x, 350 mi - Saban Bowl
2. A&M - 39x, 340 mi
3. Arkansas - 31x, 540 mi - The Battle for the Golden Boot
4. Miss St - 79x, 300 mi
5. Ole Miss - 78x, 345 mi - Magnolia Bowl

Game 9. Tulane (68x) & Rice (50x) play each every-other year

Drops Florida (59x) & the Tiger Bowl vs Auburn (38x). Won't matchup w/ Kentucky (56x).

Arkansas:
1. A&M - 62x, 475 mi - The Southwest Classic
2. LSU - 31x, 540 mi - The Battle for the Golden Boot
3. Ole Miss - 53x, 380 mi
4. Vandy - 9x, 530 mi
5. Mizzou - 4x, 290 mi

Game 9. Texas - 63x, 530 mi - The Big Shootout
Game 10. TCU (59x), Baylor (57x) & Texas Tech (35x) play each 2x every 6 yrs
Game 11. SMU (65x), Tulsa (61x) & Rice (59x) play each 2x every 6 yrs

Arkansas's schedule is about as southwest as the Southeastern Conference gets. Miss St is a little west of Vandy.

Texas A&M:
1. Arkansas - 62x, 475 mi - The Southwest Classic
2. LSU - 39x, 340 mi
3. Mizzou - 13x, 775 mi
4. Auburn - 2x, 750 mi
5. Sakerlina - 0x, 1,070 mi

Game 9. Texas - 79x, 110 mi - Lone Star Showdown
Game 10. Baylor (77x), Texas Tech (68x) & TCU (64x) play each 2x every 6 yrs
Game 11. SMU (64x), Rice (63x) & Houston (34x) play each 2x every 6 yrs

A&M gets the 3 teams it wants to play & Auburn/Sakerlina have to start an annual game w/ them. Sakerlina would have anyway.

Non-Annual Rivalries, # of times played in the past 80 years:
70 - Bama-Vandy (pre-92)
59 - Florida-LSU (dropped)
58 - UGA-Vandy (dropped)
56 - LSU-Kentucky (pre-92)
55 - Tenn-Ole Miss (pre-92)
49 - Tenn-Auburn (pre-92)
46 - Florida-Vandy (dropped)
45 - UGA-Ole Miss (pre-92)
42 - Ole Miss-Kentucky (dropped)
40 - Bama-UGA (pre-92)
38 - LSU-Auburn (dropped)
37 - Florida-Tenn (dropped)

Thoughts?: What do you think? Is playing 5 teams annually instead of 7 / playing the other teams 6x every 16 yrs instead of 6x every 36 years better? Do you like potentially matching up #1 LSU & #2 Bama in the SEC Championship Game? Or do you think an undeserving team that gets the lucky schedule w/o a Bama or LSU would make it instead?

Yards Per Play in the SEC: October is here

2012-10-05T04:15:03Z

This week's YPP rankings are a little late due to some extra work and preparing for a family visit. My apologies.

As I said last week, this past weekend only featured a little over half of the league's teams, so things wouldn't change so much. Unless, of course, you're talking about Tennessee's defense, which saw their already-poor defensive YPP number rise by over half a yard after playing Georgia. Do they play Arkansas this year? That might be the game of the century, because both teams may score 100. Numbers, provided by College Football Statistics, after the break.

This week's YPP rankings are a little late due to some extra work and preparing for a family visit. My apologies.

Rank	Team	Games Played	Offensive Plays	Offensive YPP	Defensive Plays	Defensive YPP	Ratio
1	Alabama	5	316	6.34	290	3.30	1.92
2	Louisiana State	4	276	6.41	230	3.47	1.85
3	Georgia	5	336	7.98	367	5.04	1.58
4	Texas A&M	3	235	7.04	237	4.77	1.48
5	South Carolina	5	323	6.33	330	4.38	1.45
6	Florida	4	263	6.20	279	4.37	1.42
7	Mississippi State	3	192	6.26	221	5.14	1.22
8	Mississippi	4	277	5.79	282	5.15	1.12
9	Kentucky	5	341	5.12	364	5.37	0.95
10	Auburn	4	238	5.00	312	5.38	0.93
11	Tennessee	4	325	6.08	282	6.62	0.92
12	Vanderbilt	3	187	4.98	212	5.49	0.91
13	Missouri	4	285	4.53	276	5.22	0.87
14	Arkansas	4	284	5.36	321	6.94	0.77

As is custom, I only looked at games against FBS competition. A few thoughts:

We'll call it the "Arkansas bump." Apparently, playing Arkansas shoots teams up the YPP ratio standings. This past week's beneficiary was Texas A&M, who went from 6th with a 1.36 ratio to 4th with a 1.48 ratio. This week's beneficiary should be my Auburn Tigers, but I'm not as bullish after a tough game against LSU as some of my fellow fans. Auburn's 5.00 YPP offense against Arkansas' 6.94 YPP defense is your classic "stoppable force meets a movable object" matchup. Tune in at noon!
Kentucky...not as bad as we all think? We all see Kentucky scores and watch their games and think they're a terrible team and Joker Phillips is fired yesterday. But based on this information, you would also think they would be at the bottom of these kinds of rankings, but there they sit, near the middle of the pack even after playing YPP #5 South Carolina.
Fire Mike Bobo! Oh wait, his offenses are churning out approximately eight yards per play. That is unbelievable, and that number is certain to drop after facing South Carolina's tough defense this weekend, but it still jumps out at you. It's amazing what having top-flight talent will do for one's coaching skills (offer not valid for Arkansas' 2012 coaching staff).

That's it for this week, enjoy your football watching this weekend!

Yards Per Play in the SEC: Summer Turns to Fall

2012-09-27T02:27:49Z

Almost every team in the SEC has played at least one conference game, so the early-season YPP numbers inflated by cupcakes are starting to reflect the teams' true talent levels (except Mississippi State -- they've played four cupcakes). A tough defensive matchup between Auburn and LSU was the league's only close game this past weekend, and both teams' offensive numbers declined, while their defensive numbers improved. Arkansas actually got a boost last week in YPP, despite giving up more overall yards and (most importantly) more points to Rutgers.

Once again, I made sure to only use games against FBS competition in the hopes of weeding out some of the cupcake inflation. The numbers, provided by College Football Statistics as usual, are after the jump.

Rank	Team	Games Played	Offensive Plays	Offensive YPP	Defensive Plays	Defensive YPP	Ratio
1	Alabama	4	252	6.75	222	3.33	2.03
2	Louisiana State	4	276	6.41	230	3.47	1.85
3	Georgia	4	272	7.79	282	4.87	1.60
4	South Carolina	4	256	6.63	267	4.50	1.47
5	Florida	4	263	6.20	279	4.37	1.42
6	Texas A&M	2	156	6.20	139	4.43	1.36
7	Mississippi	3	209	6.64	218	5.26	1.26
8	Mississippi State	3	192	6.26	221	5.14	1.22
9	Tennessee	3	240	6.24	218	5.99	1.04
10	Kentucky	4	278	5.41	297	5.41	1.00
11	Auburn	4	238	5.00	312	5.38	0.93
12	Vanderbilt	3	187	4.98	212	5.49	0.91
13	Arkansas	3	186	5.41	242	6.25	0.87
14	Missouri	3	226	4.18	196	5.34	0.78

Thoughts:

The Egg Bowl should be a good game. If you've been reading this weekly, you should know that I think Hugh Freeze has done a tremendous job in year one with Ole Miss, and I think he is turning out to be the absolute right hire. In fact, TSUN has put up better YPP numbers than Mississippi State, despite playing basically the same schedule (1 FCS school, 2 FBS non-AQ schools, 1 FBS AQ school). In fact, Ole Miss's schedule has been tougher, since their AQ opponent was Texas while MSU's was the East Alabama Dumpster Fire. Should make for an interesting Thanksgiving weekend game.
Missouri...oof. We knew their transition into the SEC would be tough, but things are looking rough for Gary Pinkel's squad in terms of YPP. They've been blown out of two conference games and won a nail-biter against a mid-level Pac-12 team. Granted, their two conference games were against two of the top six teams in the country (rankings-wise), but I can't imagine this is how folks in Columbia expected the season to start out. A good next step would be taking care of business against UCF in Orlando; you're s'posed to be SEC.
Separation at the top. It's becoming clear that the SEC West is a two-team race and the SEC East is (surprisingly) a three-team race. Florida has impressed since their opening day close call against Bowling Green, and the Gators seem to be hitting their stride. As expected, Alabama and LSU have been impressive (well, LSU has been impressive defensively, anyways), and Georgia and South Carolina have taken care of business. It's kind of a bummer to realize that 9 of 14 teams are not going to win the league, but I guess most people have assumed it would be Alabama or LSU since January anyways.
When will Vandy's peripheral success transate to wins? Vanderbilt was around the middle of the pack last season in YPP, total yards, and other peripheral stats, but only won six games. This year, they have a YPP ratio greater than 1, but a losing record. In fact, in spite of gaining more yards per play than their opponents in games against FBS competition, they have yet to win a game against FBS competition. When will things start to turn around for them, in terms of wins and losses?

Thanks for the feedback last week. It's interesting to see how these numbers fluctuate from week to week, especially knowing the level of opponent that each team faces. Four teams are off this weekend, so next week's numbers may not be too different from this week's numbers. Except Ole Miss's; their offensive numbers are going to plunge against the Machine.

Rank	Team	Games Played	Offensive Plays	Offensive YPP	Defensive Plays	Defensive YPP	Ratio
1	Alabama	4	252	6.75	222	3.33	2.03
2	Louisiana State	4	276	6.41	230	3.47	1.85
3	Georgia	4	272	7.79	282	4.87	1.60
4	South Carolina	4	256	6.63	267	4.50	1.47
5	Florida	4	263	6.20	279	4.37	1.42
6	Texas A&M	2	156	6.20	139	4.43	1.36
7	Mississippi	3	209	6.64	218	5.26	1.26
8	Mississippi State	3	192	6.26	221	5.14	1.22
9	Tennessee	3	240	6.24	218	5.99	1.04
10	Kentucky	4	278	5.41	297	5.41	1.00
11	Auburn	4	238	5.00	312	5.38	0.93
12	Vanderbilt	3	187	4.98	212	5.49	0.91
13	Arkansas	3	186	5.41	242	6.25	0.87
14	Missouri	3	226	4.18	196	5.34	0.78

Thoughts:

The Egg Bowl should be a good game. If you've been reading this weekly, you should know that I think Hugh Freeze has done a tremendous job in year one with Ole Miss, and I think he is turning out to be the absolute right hire. In fact, TSUN has put up better YPP numbers than Mississippi State, despite playing basically the same schedule (1 FCS school, 2 FBS non-AQ schools, 1 FBS AQ school). In fact, Ole Miss's schedule has been tougher, since their AQ opponent was Texas while MSU's was the East Alabama Dumpster Fire. Should make for an interesting Thanksgiving weekend game.
Missouri...oof. We knew their transition into the SEC would be tough, but things are looking rough for Gary Pinkel's squad in terms of YPP. They've been blown out of two conference games and won a nail-biter against a mid-level Pac-12 team. Granted, their two conference games were against two of the top six teams in the country (rankings-wise), but I can't imagine this is how folks in Columbia expected the season to start out. A good next step would be taking care of business against UCF in Orlando; you're s'posed to be SEC.
Separation at the top. It's becoming clear that the SEC West is a two-team race and the SEC East is (surprisingly) a three-team race. Florida has impressed since their opening day close call against Bowling Green, and the Gators seem to be hitting their stride. As expected, Alabama and LSU have been impressive (well, LSU has been impressive defensively, anyways), and Georgia and South Carolina have taken care of business. It's kind of a bummer to realize that 9 of 14 teams are not going to win the league, but I guess most people have assumed it would be Alabama or LSU since January anyways.
When will Vandy's peripheral success transate to wins? Vanderbilt was around the middle of the pack last season in YPP, total yards, and other peripheral stats, but only won six games. This year, they have a YPP ratio greater than 1, but a losing record. In fact, in spite of gaining more yards per play than their opponents in games against FBS competition, they have yet to win a game against FBS competition. When will things start to turn around for them, in terms of wins and losses?

Yards Per Play in the SEC: (Almost) Everybody is 1/4 Way Through

2012-09-20T02:48:21Z

Ed: Bumped to front

Last weekend's games had an interesting effect on the yards per play (YPP) metric in the SEC. Ole Miss took one on the chin from Texas (through no fault of their offense's) and Tennessee's second half collapse totally inflated their number on the defensive side of the ball. I won't spend the time this week explaining why I'm using YPP rather than total yards; you can find that argument in last week's fanpost.

The numbers, once again provided by the wonderful College Football Stats, are after the jump.

Ed: Bumped to front

Rank	Team	Offensive YPP	Defensive YPP	Ratio
1	Louisiana State	6.91	3.46	2.00
2	Alabama	6.69	3.56	1.88
3	Georgia	7.80	4.69	1.66
4	South Carolina	6.71	4.53	1.48
5	Florida	6.42	4.55	1.41
6	Texas A&M	6.02	4.43	1.36
7	Mississippi State	6.71	5.32	1.26
8	Vanderbilt	4.71	4.29	1.10
9	Kentucky	5.87	5.35	1.10
10	Mississippi	7.05	6.67	1.06
11	Auburn	5.42	5.50	0.99
12	Tennessee	5.72	6.73	0.85
13	Missouri	4.10	4.86	0.84
14	Arkansas	4.02	5.88	0.68

Thoughts:

We're on our way to another LSU-Alabama Parts I and II again, aren't we? LSU is demolishing their competition to the tune of gaining twice as many yards per play as they give up, and Alabama is busy giving a preseason top 10 team (lolol) their worst home shutout lost since the Van Buren administration. After LSU gets done carpetbombing my beloved Auburn Tigers and Alabama drops 50+ on FAU in a third straight shutout, we'll be talking again next week about the inevitability of the re-rematch in January. Seriously, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida, you don't want to win the East. It will only cause pain and suffering on December 1.
Gators are coming on strong. Florida has looked pretty dang good beating Texas A&M and Tennessee on the road to open SEC play. The defense is good in the first half of games then lights out in the second half of games, and their offense has steadily improved. I thought Will Muschamp would just be angrier Ron Zook, but he's making me reconsider. Their only true remaining SEC road game is Vanderbilt, so their schedule (even with a matchup with LSU) sets up nicely for a return trip to ATL for the first time since 2009.
Tennessee's defense: yikes. They should take their aggressions out on Akron this weekend and improve that number, but they have a worse defensive YPP than Ole Miss does, even after Texas gained 1500 yards on the Rebels this past weekend. They played decently in the first half against Florida, but the wheels came off in the second half. The offensive numbers are surprisingly poor, too: the Vols rank 10th in the conference in offensive YPP.
So this is what rock bottom looks like. Arkansas has the worst YPP numbers in the conference, and it isn't close. And their crazy old cat lady head coach is asking reporters to smile during press conferences. On the bright side, Razorbacks, it can only get better.

I hope people are finding this information useful and interesting like I am. I got one rec on last week's post, so someone out there must have liked it. If this week's post doesn't generate a lot of discussion, I will stop cluttering up the fanpost list on the side. Hopefully you enjoy it, I know I've enjoyed putting it together!

Yards Per Play in the SEC: Two Weeks in the Books

2012-09-11T05:50:05Z

After two weeks of play in the SEC, every team in the conference except Texas A&M has played two games, and every team has played at least one game against an FBS (1-A) opponent. Even though the sample size is only one (or two), I thought it would be interesting to see how the teams are stacking up in terms of my favorite stat, yards per play (YPP).

I prefer this stat because it breaks down offense and defense to the lowest possible level of granularity, the play. Total yardage is a useless stat because a 500 yard game is not very impressive if the team runs 500 plays, and a 100 yard game becomes impressive if the team runs two plays. Those are two extreme (and virtually impossible) examples, I know, but they illustrate the flaws in total yards as a statistic. YPP is by no means flawless; it is a strict average that doesn't account for standard deviation, meaning a team that has one 80-yard play and nine 0-yard plays will have the same YPP as a team with ten 8-yard plays. It also does not account for the fact that there is a maximum (and minimum, on the other extreme) amount of yards a team can gain in a particular play. If it is first and goal at the one yard line, the offense can only gain one yard and the defense can only give up one yard. If the offense scores, the play was obviously successful, but has a negative contribution to that team's offensive YPP value.

All that said, I still like it as a rough estimator of a team's relative strength. After the jump, we'll get to the numbers.

The table below shows the teams of the SEC ordered by offensive YPP to defensive YPP ratio. This stat basically describes how much more (or less) successful your offense is per play than your opponents' offense. All numbers are retrieved from the invaluable resource College Football Statsistics. If you'd like to look at a fancier, more colorful google spreadsheet rather than the HTML table, click here.

Rank	Team	Offensive YPP	Defensive YPP	Ratio
1	Louisiana State	6.61	3.47	1.90
2	Mississippi	7.80	4.44	1.76
3	Mississippi State	5.97	3.54	1.69
4	Alabama	6.66	4.29	1.55
5	Tennessee	6.63	5.09	1.30
6	Georgia	6.18	4.79	1.29
7	Florida	5.25	4.47	1.17
8	Kentucky	6.56	5.76	1.14
9	South Carolina	5.88	5.22	1.13
10	Vanderbilt	4.71	4.29	1.10
11	Arkansas	5.71	5.34	1.07
12	Texas A&M	4.84	4.72	1.03
13	Missouri	4.64	5.07	0.92
14	Auburn	4.72	6.03	0.78

Some thoughts:

Hugh Freeze has turned around Ole Miss' offense That eye-popping 7.80 offensive YPP is not a typo, folks. I realize that the opponent was UTEP, but Houston Nutt's past few offenses at Ole Miss would not have come close to touching that level of domination. The number is certain to drop once the Rebels get into the meat grinder of their SEC schedule (not to mention this week's contest with Texas), but Ole Miss fans have reason to be optimistic.
The new kids on the block had a tough go of it in their first conference games This one is a no-brainer, but after one game in the league, Texas A&M and Missouri take up two of the bottom three spots in the league in YPP ratio. Of course, they have both only played one FBS game, and other teams have had the opportunity to play weaker FBS teams like Western Kentucky ~~or Louisiana-Monroe~~.
The SEC winner is most likely going to come from the West again Another no-brainer, depending on whom you ask, but given the fact that most everyone expected Alabama or LSU to win the conference, and the top four teams above in YPP ratio are from the West, it would appear that we're looking at a fourth straight SEC Champion from the West. If you want to add strength of schedule context to the numbers, Alabama and LSU have produced their numbers while demolishing BCS conference opponents who were trendy preseason dark horse conference championship contenders.
Auburn, you're s'posed to be SEC As an Auburn fan, these numbers show me that my eyes haven't lied to me in the two games I've put myself through. If you reverse the numbers, Teams That Play Auburn have an aggregate YPP ratio of 1.27, or approximately Georgia. Gene Chizik better turn this thing around soon, or a 4-8 or 3-9 season could be staring him squarely in the eyes. I wish I could say that's hyperbolic, but based on the evidence I have before me (both visual and numerical), it seems accurate.

So there you have it. I'd once again like to stress that this is a complete exercise in small sample sizes, but in a 12-game season, you're not going to do much better. I would welcome any comments or criticisms about the work, and if I have the time (not to mention the moderators' blessing), I'd like to post an updated version of the numbers each week. Thanks for reading!

Compu-Picks 2012 Preview - SEC

2012-08-30T13:17:00Z

[Bumped from the FanPosts. Saves me from having to link to it later, because it's a good read. -Y2]

Originally posted on CFN.

Projected ranking and expected results

			Expected Wins			Projected League Results
Team	2012 Rank	2011 Rank	All Games	League Games	SOS	Div Finish	Division Odds
Florida	6	29	9.19	5.87	7	1	40.6%
Georgia	12	15	9.00	5.21	31	2	23.5%
South Carolina	16	13	8.03	4.68	16	3	15.7%
Vanderbilt	25	33	7.55	4.04	32	4	9.5%
Missouri	23	21	7.40	3.85	17	5	7.9%
Tennessee	40	59	5.91	2.36	21	6	2.3%
Kentucky	66	81	3.48	1.09	5	7	0.5%

Alabama	2	1	10.28	6.59	14	1	51.3%
Auburn	10	38	8.69	5.11	11	2	16.1%
Louisiana State	7	2	8.80	4.97	6	3	16.7%
Mississippi State	17	34	8.81	4.92	49	4	11.1%
Arkansas	24	9	7.02	3.68	4	5	4.5%
Texas A&M	37	16	5.79	2.54	9	6	1.1%
Mississippi	60	97	3.57	1.10	2	7	0.2%

[Bumped from the FanPosts. Saves me from having to link to it later, because it's a good read. -Y2]

Originally posted on CFN.

Projected ranking and expected results

			Expected Wins			Projected League Results
Team	2012 Rank	2011 Rank	All Games	League Games	SOS	Div Finish	Division Odds
Florida	6	29	9.19	5.87	7	1	40.6%
Georgia	12	15	9.00	5.21	31	2	23.5%
South Carolina	16	13	8.03	4.68	16	3	15.7%
Vanderbilt	25	33	7.55	4.04	32	4	9.5%
Missouri	23	21	7.40	3.85	17	5	7.9%
Tennessee	40	59	5.91	2.36	21	6	2.3%
Kentucky	66	81	3.48	1.09	5	7	0.5%

Alabama	2	1	10.28	6.59	14	1	51.3%
Auburn	10	38	8.69	5.11	11	2	16.1%
Louisiana State	7	2	8.80	4.97	6	3	16.7%
Mississippi State	17	34	8.81	4.92	49	4	11.1%
Arkansas	24	9	7.02	3.68	4	5	4.5%
Texas A&M	37	16	5.79	2.54	9	6	1.1%
Mississippi	60	97	3.57	1.10	2	7	0.2%

Some notes and comments about the SEC and its teams:

1) Alabama - LSU is one of the more interesting questions of the preseason, with just about everyone having an opinion. As stated before (more than once), Compu-Picks takes Bama in this one. Bama loses more production (though after Mathieu's departure it's actually pretty close), loses much more to the draft, and had much better injury luck in 2011 than LSU. However, LSU had an almost certainly unsustainable turnover margin, isn't recruiting nearly as well as Bama (especially the most recent class), and simply hasn't been as good a program as Bama. To Compu-Picks at least, this really isn't a difficult choice.
And that's just in terms of power rating. Alabama also has a much easier SEC slate, drawing Mizzou and Tennessee from the East, compared to LSU's draw of Florida and South Carolina. That's a major difference, and is a big part of the projected gap in league records between the two.

2) With Arkansas projected to slip (largely due to Petrino being gone, though the fact that 2011 was already a material outlier compared to standard performance mattered as well), watch out for Auburn and, interestingly, Mississippi St as potential sleepers in the West. Auburn had a major down year in 2011, but has been a solid program, is recruiting fantastically well, and returns an enormous amount of talent. Mississippi St, meanwhile, returns much more production than their mere 12 starters would suggest, and unlike most teams near the top of the SEC, seems likely to improve their turnover margin rather than worsen. Also, Auburn has a reasonable East draw of Georgia and Vandy, while Mississippi St has a fantastic East draw of Kentucky and Tennessee, arguably the easiest possible draw for a West team.

3) Compu-Picks isn't at all high on Texas A&M this year. While it's true that A&M had a lot of rough luck last year (turnovers, fumble luck, injuries, not to mention close game luck), they also have a new coach, 2011 was a positive outlier compared to previous history (not as much as 2010, but far better than 2007-2009), their recruiting trend is really bad (worst in SEC and bottom 15 in the country), and their offense is gutted, losing their starting quarterback, running back, and 2nd most productive receiver. Throw in a challenging schedule (not the nastiest in the SEC, but not very far off), and reaching six wins will be tough. Even worse, since they play two AA teams this year, they actually need to hit seven wins to make a bowl game. Compu-Picks is not optimistic about their chances of making that happen.

4) In the East, watch out for Florida. The Gators' recruiting slide seems to be over, with their numbers at least stabilizing as their amazing mid-decade recruiting run slips even further off the board. They also return an enormous amount of production on defense, though their offensive numbers show rebuilding potential. They also almost certainly will improve their turnover numbers, most likely by a substantial amount, which all by itself should herald meaningful improvement. Finally, while Urban Meyer is gone, the fact that this program has been absolutely oustanding for a while definitely comes into play here. A lot of the players from the 2008-2009 run are gone, but not all. There's more underlying talent here than people realize.

5) If it's not Florida in the East, it'll probably be Georgia. Drawing Auburn and Ole Miss is about as favorable an SEC slate as you can get, and this is a strong program with good recruiting numbers (though unlike many other SEC programs, they're actually slipping a bit rather than surging), a lot of returning production (though they do lose a bit to the draft), and overall a pretty solid resume.

6) South Carolina, meanwhile, looks iffier. An LSU-Arkansas draw isn't fun at all, but they also lost a lot of talent to the draft, and need to replace a lot of production on defense. Their recruiting numbers are solid but not spectacular, though they probably will get better injury luck in 2012. Overall, they're behind the projected top two, but not by so much that they couldn't end up the East's best team. However, thanks to the worst schedule draw of any projected East contenders, it's going to be a really tough road to actually make the title game even if, like last year, they really were the best team in the division. Don't be surprised if they come close, though.

7) As for the rest, Vandy and Mizzou look like the next best pair, with Mizzou projected to be a bit better quality-wise, while Vandy gets the projected record nod thanks to (like Georgia) drawing Auburn and Ole Miss instead of Mizzou's Bama and A&M. Vandy is intuitively more surprising, but their recruiting numbers have really surged, they return a lot of players, and they made nice strides last year despite the worst injury luck in the entire SEC. Mizzou, meanwhile, is basically projected to more or less hover around the usual spot quality-wise, with a worse record than usual just because the schedule is tougher than usual.

8) Compu-Picks didn't expect much out of Tennessee even before they lost Rogers. With him gone too, their numbers sink even lower. Don't be at all surprised if they miss a bowl for the second straight year.

Additional tables of data available in linked article.

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

I have provided adjusted division (or league) odds in a couple of instances. For the Big Ten Leaders, it shows the odds of each team winning adjusting for the fact that Ohio St and Penn St will both be ineligible. The same is true for the ACC Coastal and North Carolina.

5) There is a substantial amount of noise in these projections, which is to be expected given the large number of unknowns (who will have good and bad luck with injuries, which young players will improve and which won't, how specific matchups will come into play, etc.). Right now the standard error is a bit over 0.2 on a scale of about -1 to +1. It's important to look at the projections with this in mind to get a sense of how material the projected differences are. Given a standard error around 0.2, it is safe to project Alabama to be a much better team than Mississippi St, but it is not safe to project Mississippi St to be any better than Arkansas, much less a lot better.

6) At this point, there are a number of model features that need to be investigated further. Chief among these is the distribution of extreme events. It appears that the model may be overstating the probabilities of extreme events, such as 12-0 or 0-12 records, or major underdogs winning their division/league. This overstatement has been reduced compared to last year's projections, but still likely exists to some degree. Please keep this in mind when looking at the distribution of win probabilities.

7) Since there is much less data available for the four 1-A newcomers, the power rating methodology has been more manual and arbitrary. As a consequence, I am somewhat less confident of the projections for those four teams than I am for the other 120 1-A members. Please keep this in mind when looking at the newcomers' projections.

Regional Rivalries Realignment

2012-08-14T19:35:41Z

[Editor's Note: Added to front page for discussion purposes. It's interesting, if nothing else.--C&F]

Texas-Texas A&M. dead.

Mizzou-Kansas. dead.

Pitt-West Va. dead.

Florida-Miami. dead.

Pitt-Penn St. dead.

Utah-BYU. dead.

Nebraska-Oklahoma. dead.

As a Clemson fan, I want to play Georgia, Auburn & Tennessee but with a 14-team conference & a 9-game conference schedule (plus Sakerlina), there's no room. We've had to cancel a series w/ Ole Miss & Oklahoma St b/c of this. We almost cancelled our 1st game vs Georgia since 2004 before both schools agreed on a $3 million buyout to play it next year & 2014. This will be the last time the 2 schools every play in the regular season IMO. We've played 57 times & are 74 miles apart.

There's a bunch of other examples. Here's my solution:

With 12, 14 & 16 team conferences, everyone can't play everyone. 10 games against 'BCS' competition is the max teams can do to make sure they have 7 home games. I would have more fun as a fan watching my school play the same 10 teams us fans consider our biggest rivals. So I propose a move to simple 8-team conferences.

A team plays the other 7 teams in its conference. They also play their 3 biggest rivals OOC annually for 10 games. This puts more of an emphasis on regional rivalries. Play the teams us fans care about. Then they can schedule their 2 cupcakes at home to make $.

In basketball, teams play each team in their conference 2x & their OOC rivals 2x for 14 conference games & 20 annual games. Then add in up to 10 cupcakes, early season tournaments & ACC-B1G challenges.

*The Mississippi, Washington & BEast teams have to fill in some rivalry games from the Metro & Mtn West conferences.

**Notre Dame plays a full 12 team schedule instead of 10 w/ Stan, USC, Mich, Mich St & Navy OOC.

Here's the Google Map for the new conferences.

Let's take a look at the SEC 1st - bold = conf member, next row = annual OOC Rival, miles away from each other & times played:

[Editor's Note: Added to front page for discussion purposes. It's interesting, if nothing else.--C&F]

Texas-Texas A&M. dead.

Mizzou-Kansas. dead.

Pitt-West Va. dead.

Florida-Miami. dead.

Pitt-Penn St. dead.

Utah-BYU. dead.

Nebraska-Oklahoma. dead.

There's a bunch of other examples. Here's my solution:

*The Mississippi, Washington & BEast teams have to fill in some rivalry games from the Metro & Mtn West conferences.

**Notre Dame plays a full 12 team schedule instead of 10 w/ Stan, USC, Mich, Mich St & Navy OOC.

Here's the Google Map for the new conferences.

Let's take a look at the SEC 1st - bold = conf member, next row = annual OOC Rival, miles away from each other & times played:

SOUTHEASTERN	Rival 1	Rival 2	Rival 3
Florida	FSU - 151 mi, 56x	Miami - 336 mi, 54x	Sakerlina - 354 mi, 32x
Georgia	Ga Tech - 70 mi, 101x	Sakerlina - 153 mi, 59x	Clemson - 74 mi, 57x
Tennessee	Kentucky - 170 mi, 104x	Vandy - 180 mi, 101x	Clemson - 195 mi, 18x
Auburn	Ga Tech - 110 mi, 86x	Clemson - 232 mi, 47x	FSU - 205 mi, 18x
Alabama	Vandy - 238 mi, 83x	Arkansas - 544 mi, 22x	Sakerlina - 416 mi, 15x
Mississippi	Memphis - 79 mi, 59x	TCU - 547 mi, 6x	Baylor - 564 mi, 1x
Mississippi State	Memphis - 174 mi, 44x	Baylor - 569 mi, 4x	TCU - 555 mi, 1x
Louisiana State	Arkansas - 563 mi, 56x	Texas - 431 mi, 15x	Baylor - 428 mi, 11x

1932's Founding Fathers except for Vandy (private) & Kentucky (not in the south). Keeping it west of the Appalachians like they always intended. Allows Florida to play Miami, Georgia to play Clemson & Auburn to play Ga Tech & Clemson. Tenn still gets to play Kentucky & Vandy, plus Clemson, 74 miles away. The Mississippi's are in the heart of this SEC so not many regional rivals to choose from - they get Memphis & go out to Texas. Sakerlina still gets to play Florida, Georgia & now Bama. Arkansas keeps LSU & Bama.

ATLANTIC COAST	Rival 1	Rival 2	Rival 3
Florida State	Florida - 151 mi, 56x	Miami - 468 mi, 54x	Auburn - 205 mi, 18x
Georgia Tech	Georgia - 70 mi, 101x	Auburn - 110 mi, 86x	Miami - 663 mi, 17x
Clemson	Georgia - 74 mi, 57x	Auburn - 232 mi, 47x	Tenn - 195 mi, 18x
South Carolina (SEC)	Georgia - 153 mi, 59x	Florida - 354 mi, 32x	Bama - 416 mi, 15x
North Carolina	Wake - 77 mi, 99x	Duke - 11 mi, 91x	Maryland - 282 mi, 69x
North Carolina State	Wake - 107 mi, 104x	Duke - 25 mi, 81x	Maryland - 294 mi, 67x
Virginia	Maryland - 128 mi, 76x	Duke - 167 mi, 60x	Penn St - 284 mi, 6x
Virginia Tech	West Va - 250 mi, 51x	Wake - 103 mi, 36x	Pitt - 321 mi, 11x

Sakerlina rejoins the ACC. ACC drops the dead weight (er, 5 private schools) & Pitt so it's focused on the south/mid-Atlantic. Now all 4 North Carolina schools get to play the other 3 annually. Clemson, FSU & Ga Tech can play other teams in the south. Virginia has a 4 hour drive to Happy Valley. Original member Maryland has to change conferences but keeps UNC, NCST & UVA on the annual schedule. Most importantly to Tobacco Road - all the basketball schools get to play each other 2x, including Duke-UNC.

BIG EAST
Connecticut	Cuse - 270 mi, 8x	BC - 84 mi, 4x	USF - 1281 mi, 9x
Rutgers	Cuse - 237 mi, 39x	BC - 223 mi, 26x	Cincy - 628 mi, 17x
Maryland (ACC)	Virginia - 128 mi, 76x	UNC - 282 mi, 69x	NCST - 294 mi, 67x
Penn State (B1G)	Cuse - 229 mi, 70x	BC - 438 mi, 23x	Virginia - 284 mi, 11x
Pittsburgh (ACC)	Va Tech - 321 mi, 11x	L'ville - 388 mi, 15x	Cincy - 289 mi, 11x
West Virginia (XII)	Va Tech - 250 mi, 51x	Cincy - 304 mi, 20x	L'ville - 398 mi, 13x
Ohio State (B1G)	Michigan - 191 mi, 108x	Purdue - 239 mi, 54x	Mich St - 251 mi, 39x
Kentucky (SEC)	Tenn - 170 mi, 104x	Vandy - 174 mi, 101x	Indiana - 169 mi, 35x

Here's the Eastern Conference JoePa always wanted. Penn St comes home & everyone else follows suit. Except for UConn in New England these 8 schools are very close together. Ohio St does leave the B1G but keeps Michigan, Mich St & Purdue on schedule. I don't know how much Columbus, OH cares about going past Illinois to play Midwestern teams. This is a lot closer playing all its' 5 border states PA, WV, KY, MI & IN. Kentucky plays 3 OOC schools 2.5 hours away +L'ville. Old BEast members Cuse, BC, L'ville & Cincy factor heavily into other teams OOC schedules. + NC & VA ACC teams.

B1G
Michigan	Ohio St - 191 mi, 108x	NWern - 242 mi, 70x	ND - 169 mi, 36x
Michigan State	ND - 141 mi, 61x	NWern - 219 mi, 49x	Ohio St - 251 mi, 39x
Indiana	Kentucky - 169 mi, 35x	Mizzou - 439 mi, 10x	Kansas - 506 mi, 2x
Purdue	Ohio St - 239 mi, 54x	Kansas St - 606 mi, 3x	West Va - 443 mi, 2x
Illinois	NWern - 138 mi, 105x	Mizzou - 270 mi, 24x	Kansas - 432 mi, 5x
Wisconsin	Iowa St - 274 mi, 7x	Nebraska - 483 mi, 6x	Kansas St - 601 mi, 2x
Minnesota	Nebraska - 412 mi, 52x	Iowa St - 216 mi, 26x	Kansas - 476 mi, 7x
Iowa	Iowa St - 128 mi, 54x	Nebraska - 305 mi, 31x	Mizzou - 316 mi, 4x

Like the SEC, the B1G sheds some teams away from its footprint & doesn't bring anyone new in. Ohio St & Northwestern each have 3 games w/ their original conferences. This emphasizes a B1G vs Big VIII Midwest rivalry. Except for Michigan (only B1G schools in EST) everyone else goes Midwest w/ their OOC schedules vs Mizzou, Kansas, K-St, Iowa St & Nebraska. They're all in central time zone & haven't played as much as you'd think. Indiana gets a piece of some strong basketball teams: Kentucky, Mizzou & Kansas.

BIG VIII
Oklahoma	Texas - 372 mi, 96x	A&M - 357 mi, 29x	Tx Tech - 343 mi, 19x
Oklahoma State	Tx Tech - 413 mi, 39x	A&M - 425 mi, 26x	Texas - 440 mi, 26x
Arkansas (SEC)	A&M - 472 mi, 67x	LSU - 563 mi, 56x	Bama - 544 mi, 22x
Missouri (SEC)	Illinois - 270 mi, 24x	Indiana - 439 mi, 10x	Iowa - 316 mi, 4x
Kansas	Minn - 476 mi, 7x	Illinois - 432 mi, 5x	Indiana - 506 mi, 2x
Kansas State	Tx Tech - 594 mi, 12x	Purdue - 606 mi, 3x	Wisc - 601 mi, 2x
Nebraska (B1G)	Minn - 412 mi, 52x	Iowa - 305 mi, 31x	Wisc - 483 mi, 6x
Iowa State	Iowa - 128 mi, 54x	Minn - 216 mi, 26x	Wisc - 274 mi, 7x

Big VIII is back & with 1 change - Arkansas instead of Colorado. Mizzou, Kansas, K-St, Nebraska & Iowa St have their OOC filled w/ B1G Illinoi, Indiana, Wisc, Minn & Iowa. The Oklahoma schools player their old Big XII South division rivals - the 3 public Texas schools. Arkansas plays it's biggest rival Texas A&M & keeps the big 2 SEC teams on its' schedule - Bama/LSU.

PRIVATE
Boston College (ACC)	Rutgers - 223 mi, 26x	Penn St - 438 mi, 23x	UConn - 84 mi, 4x
Syracuse (ACC)	Penn St - 229 mi, 70x	Rutgers - 237 mi, 39x	UConn - 270 mi, 8x
Notre Dame (Ind)	Stanford/USC	Michigan/Mich St	Navy - 663 mi, 85x
Northwestern (B1G)	Illinois - 138 mi, 105x	Michigan - 242 mi, 70x	Mich St - 219 mi, 49x
Vanderbilt (SEC)	Kentucky - 174 mi, 101x	Tenn - 180 mi, 101x	Bama - 238 mi, 83x
Wake Forest (ACC)	NCST - 107 mi, 104x	UNC - 77 mi, 99x	Va Tech - 103 mi, 36x
Duke (ACC)	UNC - 11 mi, 91x	NCST - 25 mi, 81x	Virginia - 167 mi, 60x
Miami (ACC)	Florida - 336 mi, 54x	FSU - 468 mi, 54x	Ga Tech - 663 mi, 17x

The 8 strongest private schools are here in a new conference. 5 from the ACC + the token private schools from SEC & B1G + ND. NWern keeps in state Illinois & the Michigan schools & Vandy keeps it's closest SEC rivals - Tenn, Kentucky & Bama. Cuse & BC have a northeastern focus w/ Rutgers, UConn & Penn St. Wake & Duke get to play UNC & NCST. Miami can play Florida again & the other big city in the south Ga Tech in Atlanta (Braves-Marlins, Hawks-Heat anyone?).

ND keeps a national footprint against elite academic, like-minded schools. Stanford & USC in Cali, regional games vs Mich, Mich-St &Northwestern in Chicago. Head south to Nashville. Annual game in NC. Northeast vs Cuse (in NYC?) & vs other Catholics, BC in Boston. Catholics vs Convicts in Miami. Keeps annual game vs Navy. Only traditional rival they lose is in-state Purdue.

SOUTHWEST
Texas (XII)	Oklahoma - 372 mi, 96x	Ok St - 440 mi, 26x	LSU - 431 mi, 15x
Texas A&M (SEC)	Arkansas - 472 mi, 67x	Oklahoma - 357 mi, 29x	Ok St - 425 mi, 26x
Texas Tech (XII)	Ok St - 413 mi, 39x	Oklahoma - 343 mi, 19x	Kansas St - 594 mi, 12x
Colorado (PAC)	Oregon - 1262 mi, 16x	UCLA - 1038 mi, 7x	Cal - 1245 mi, 6x
Utah (PAC)	Oregon - 773 mi, 26x	UCLA - 692 mi, 10x	Cal - 729 mi, 8x
Brigham Young (Ind)	Ore St - 824 mi, 10x	USC - 648 mi, 2x	Stanford - 778 mi, 2x
Arizona (PAC)	Oregon - 1268 mi, 37x	UCLA - 486 mi, 35x	Cal - 859 mi, 30x
Arizona State (PAC)	Ore St - 1220 mi, 38x	USC - 382 mi, 28x	Stanford - 738 mi, 27x

The Southwest Conference is also back from the dead (RIP 1996). Texas gets to play the other 2 big state schools, both Oklahoma schools & goes west w/ Colorado, Utah & Arizona. BYU finally lands in a good conference. SWC & PAC have a lot of matchups here. I sent all the western schools to LA, Bay Area & PacNW. These opponents could rotate since there's a lot to choose from.

PACIFIC
California	Arizona - 859 mi, 30x	Utah - 729 mi, 8x	Colorado - 1245 mi, 6x
Stanford	Ariz St - 738 mi, 27x	ND - 2244 mi, 26x	BYU - 778 mi, 2x
UCLA	Arizona - 486 mi, 35x	Utah - 692 mi, 10x	Colorado - 1038 mi, 7x
USC	ND - 2095 mi, 83x	Ariz St - 382 mi, 28x	BYU - 648 mi, 2x
Oregon	Arizona - 1268 mi, 37x	Utah - 773 mi, 26x	Colorado - 1262 mi, 16x
Oregon State	Ariz St - 1220 mi, 38x	BYU - 824 mi, 10x	Boise St - 440 mi, 7x
Washington	Air Force - 1393 mi, 8x	Hawaii - 4x	Boise St - 504 mi, 1x
Washington State	UNLV - 950 mi, 5x	Hawaii - 5x	Boise St - 299 mi, 4x

This is the original PAC 8. OOC is almost entirely vs Arizona, Ariz St, Utah, BYU & Colorado. Private Standford & USC play private ND & BYU. Boise St gets a stronger schedule w/ 3 PAC teams. There wasn't much left for Washington schools so they get an every other year trip to Hawaii & could play AF or UNLV. Wash St is pretty terrible, makes it easier for them in the middle of nowhere.

& the rest of the conferences...

METRO
South Florida (BEast)	UConn - 1281 mi, 9x	ECU	Tulane
Central Florida (BEast)	UAB	ECU	Tulane
Cincinnati (BEast)	West Va - 304 mi, 20x	Rutgers - 628 mi, 17x	Pitt - 289 mi, 11x
Louisville (BEast)	Kentucky - 76 mi, 18x	Pitt - 388 mi, 15x	West Va - 398 mi, 13x
Memphis (BEast)	Ole Miss - 79 mi, 59x	Miss St - 174 mi, 44x	UAB
Houston (BEast)	Rice - 38x	SMU - 27x	UTEP - 7x
Baylor (XII)	LSU - 428 mi, 11x	Miss St - 569 mi, 4x	Ole Miss - 564 mi, 1x
Texas Christian (XII)	Ole Miss - 547 mi, 6x	Miss St - 555 mi, 1x	SMU - 90x

7/8 of these teams have been added to the BEast since 2005. Most of them came from the Metro (CUSA) before that. If a team not from the above 8 conferences is going to have a big season it'll either be Boise St or a team from the Metro. Most of these are commuter colleges in big cities not known for their academics. Except for Baylor & TCU which didn't fit in the SWC or Private conferences. Memphis, Baylor & TCU take on Ole Miss & Miss St annually. Cincy & L'ville play current BEast teams OOC.

CONFERENCE USA
East Carolina	USF	UCF	Charlotte
UAB	Memphis	UCF	Ga St
Southern Miss	N Texas	Texas St	UTSA
Tulane	USF	UCF	FIU
Louisiana Tech	N Texas	Texas St	UTSA
Rice	Houston - 38x	FAU	FIU
SMU (BEast)	TCU - 90x	Houston - 27x	UTEP - 15x
Tulsa	N Texas	Texas St	NMST

These teams weren't good enough to get a BEast invite, except for SMU. They're a big loser here, along w/ Temple. They do get to play 4 games in Texas annually plus an occasional game against Texas/A&M/Tech. All of these teams are in the Central time zone except for ECU, which is a long way from Birmingham.

MOUNTAIN WEST
UTEP (CUSA)	SMU - 17x	Air Force - 15x	Houston - 7x
New Mexico	NMST - 77x	Air Force - 29x	Utah St - 19x
Colorado State	Utah St - 68x	Air Force - 50x	Fresno St - 11x
Wyoming	Utah St - 62x	Air Force - 50x	Fresno St - 27x
Boise State (BEast)	Ore St - 440 mi, 7x	Wash St - 299 mi, 4x	Wash - 504 mi, 1x
UNLV	Nevada - 20x	Air Force - 17x	Wash St - 5x
San Diego State (BEast)	Air Force - 30x	Fresno St - 20x	SJST - 16x
Hawaii	Air Force - 18x	Wash St - 5x	Wash - 4x

MWC rejoices w/ Boise St & SDST staying put. UTEP comes back finally & gets to play in Houston or Dallas annually. Air Force goes Ind. but plays everyone OOC except for Boise St. Boise's OOC schedule is a lot stronger w/ Ore St, Wash & Wash St. Rest of the schools play a lot of WAC.

WESTERN ATHLETIC
North Texas (CUSA)	LA Tech	SoMiss	Tulsa
Texas State (SUN)	LA Tech	SoMiss	Tulsa
UTSA (CUSA)	LA Tech	SoMiss	Tulsa
New Mexico State	NM - 77x	Idaho
Utah State (MWC)	Colorado St - 68x	Wyoming - 62x	Idaho
Nevada (MWC)	UNLV - 20x	Idaho
San Jose State (MWC)	SDST - 16x	Idaho
Fresno State (MWC)	SDST - 20x	Idaho

This may be the only way the WAC stays alive & Idaho still doesn't get an invite! The only team here that hasn't been in the WAC is North Texas. SDST/SJST/Fresno St get to play each other for a JV State Championship.

SUN BELT
Florida Int'l (CUSA)	Rice	Temple	Tulane
Florida Atlantic	Rice	Temple	Charlotte
South Alabama	Charlotte
Troy	Charlotte
Georgia State	UAB	Charlotte
Middle Tennessee	Marshall	LAMO	LALA
Western Kentucky	Marshall	LAMO	LALA
Arkansas State	Rice	LAMO	LALA

Sun Belt without the Louisiana schools. USA & Ga St jump up from FCS.

NORTHEAST
Buffalo (MAC)	Army	UMass	EMU
Akron (MAC)	Miami	Toledo	BG
Kent State (MAC)	Miami	Toledo	BG
Ohio (MAC)	Miami	Toledo	BG
Marshall (CUSA)	W Kentucky	MTSU	Charlotte
Temple (BEast)	Old Dominion	CMU/WMU	Villanova
Delaware (FCS)	Old Dominion	CMU	WMU
James Madison (FCS)	Old Dominion	CMU	WMU

ECU might be happier in this divisions. Temple's a big loser in this since they'll be in the BE in 2012.

MID-AMERICAN
Miami	Akron	Kent St	Ohio
Toledo	Akron	Kent St	Ohio
Bowling Green	Akron	Kent St	Ohio
Eastern Michigan	Army	Buffalo	UMass
Central Michigan	JMU	Delaware	Temple
Western Michigan	JMU	Delaware	Temple
Ball State	Army	UMass
Northern Illinois	Army	UMass

The MAC minus the 3 eastern Ohio schools & Buffalo. All the Ohio schools play all the Ohio schools in the Buckeye JV State Championship.

INDEPENDENTS

Air Force (MWC)

7 MWC

Navy/Army

Wash

Navy (BEast)

ND/Army/Air Force

SDST/Hawaii

Maryland

Army

Navy/Air Force

Buffalo

Ball St/N Illinois

Massachusetts (MAC)

EMU

Ball St

N Illinois

Old Dominion (CUSA)

JMU

Delaware

Temple

Charlotte (CUSA)

ECU

Marshall

GA St

LA-Lafayette (SUN)

Ark St

MTSU

W Kentucky

LA-Monroe (SUN)

Ark St

MTSU

W Kentucky

Idaho (WAC)

NMST/Utah St

Boise St/Nevada

SJST/Fresno St

Leftover teams. UMass, OD & Charlotte are jumping up from FCS. Idaho is considering dropping down. LAMO & LALA are the 4th & 5th schools IN LA. Business as usual for Army.

Thoughts?

FSU/Clemson to the Big 12 Rumors: Here's the Deal

2012-05-04T23:10:25Z

This week has seen a number of fresh rumors about Florida State and Clemson possibly jumping ship from the ACC to the Big 12. They've been remarkably persistent, and by today they've hit our mothership and are being mentioned by a 24/7 Sports staffer.

Here's what I've been able to find for the curious among you. I am putting this in a FanPost rather than a front page post because this is a summary of message board chatter. It should all be considered as rumor at best.

This is not a report, nor is what's here the official opinion of Team Speed Kills, SBNation, or our lawyers, etc. Got it?

All right. Let's dive into the goo.

This is not a report, nor is what's here the official opinion of Team Speed Kills, SBNation, or our lawyers, etc. Got it?

All right. Let's dive into the goo.

FSU and Clemson and the Big 12

(This section has been updated in light of the ACC's new TV contract)

Let's get this out of the way first: it's all about money.

The Big 12 as it is stands to make more money off of regular season TV rights than the ACC. This much is not speculation: the Big 12's TV deals add up to almost $20 million per school per year, while the ACC's are around $16 million per school per year (more on this later). The Big 12 contract would go up from $20 million per team per year to at least $24 million (an extra $2 million/team/year for the new entrants, like what the ACC got). That's only part of it, though.

There is a playoff coming, if you haven't heard, and the majority of its proceeds are likely to go to the conferences of the schools who actually participate in the playoff. A message board "insider" on a West Virginia board (remember: buyer beware! All of this is message board-level sourcing!) posted an interesting shot at what the revenue splits might look like based on the last decade. Even if you ignore the figures, you can't ignore that the ACC will be badly left behind the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12.

Add it all up. The ACC starts $4 million per team per year behind the Big 12 thanks to the regular season. The ACC contract covers all of the schools' TV rights, though. The Big 12 contracts don't cover tier 3 rights, which schools can get market value for. That's an additional advantage for being in the Big 12, and for reference, Florida gets roughly $10 million for its tier 3 rights. FSU could get up to an extra $3.5 million or so (it already gets $6.5 million per year for some of that stuff like radio rights), so that's around $27.5 million a year for that school instead of $16 million in the ACC.

Throw on top of that discrepancy a lot more playoff money for the Big 12 than the ACC, and you're left wondering why this deal hasn't already gone down. All the rumors agree on the timing for FSU and Clemson to bail on the ACC: late June after the details of the playoff are finalized.

Down the rabbit hole even further.

A person going by the handle "FromTheInside" has been posting on this thread on a UConn message board for months. He/she claims to be a valuation analyst for TV networks on rights deals. Either this person is one, or he/she has done an extraordinary amount of research just to be an "insider" on a UConn message board. The sourcing should still be considered suspect, but this person spins a good yarn, as they say.

The following is all according to this message board poster. Focus in on those last three words: message board poster. Now, continue.

ESPN has a big interest in the future of the ACC because it's the only league that it owns all the TV rights for. It has been guiding the conference over past couple years (a notion accidentally leaked by BC AD Gene DiFillipo) and hand-picked Pitt and Syracuse for the conference last summer. The end game is harpooning college football's great white whale, Notre Dame.

Unless Irish football turns around in a big way soon, this person says it'll be stuck in a substandard TV rights deal after its NBC deal runs out in a few years. While the ND brass value independence over money, it will be left far behind the other power schools around the country if it doesn't join a conference.

Notre Dame has three choices for a conference: the Big Ten, the Big 12, and the ACC. This person says ND's leaders hate the Big Ten because the Big Ten's precursor league rejected the school in the early 1900s due to anti-Catholic sentiment (see here). The Big 12 wouldn't be a top pick because Notre Dame doesn't have any history with any schools there.

That leaves the ACC. Notre Dame has history with a number of ACC schools (BC, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami). Notre Dame also has been of late trying to get more into the New York market, and oh hey look, it's Syracuse! Basically, he says the ACC picked Pitt and Syracuse to court Notre Dame down the line. Adding Notre Dame may be a Hail Mary (no pun intended), but it's the only way the ACC can catch up to the big four conferences in prestige and TV payout.

What's in it for ESPN? If Notre Dame goes into the ACC, then ESPN owns all of Notre Dame's TV rights across the board.

So that's what I've found by checking around. Believe whatever it is of this you want to or not, but this is why the chatter has gotten noisy this week. I remain skeptical on all of it, but these aren't wild rumors that are completely unconnected from logic. If they were, I wouldn't have spent the time to write this.

14 team Basketball Schedule

2012-03-11T20:31:52Z

With Conference play ending for the year, I thought I'd make put my suggestion for a new basketball schedule here.

In a given year with an 18 game schedule, every team will be able to play 5 teams twice and 6 teams once. The ACC will rotate their schedule over 3 years so each school will play every other school twice in a year at some point. I don't think that's the best idea for the SEC; why should Tennessee play LSU a second time when they could be playing Georgia or Alabama a second time?

I suggest every team be given 3 primary rivalries and 4 secondary rivals.

A team would play their primary rivals twice every year.
A team would play 2 of the 4 secondary rivals twice in a given year.

For example, Tennessee might have Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and South Carolina as primary rivals, and Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Missouri as secondary rivals.

In odd years, it would play VU,UK,SC,Arkie, and MU twice.
In even years, it would play VU,UK,SC,Bama, and UG twice.

A full 4-year schedule for Tennessee would look like this:

Year 1:
H: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,Bama,A&M,OM,AU
A: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,UG,FL,MSU,LSU

Year 2:
H: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,Arkie,FL,MSU,LSU
A: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,MU,A&M,OM,AU

Year 3:
H: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,UG,A&M,OM,AU
A: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,Bama,FL,MSU,LSU

Year 4:
H: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,MU,FL,MSU,LSU
A: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,Arkie,A&M,OM,AU

If you have season tickets for a standard 4 year collegiate career with this setup, you will see your primary rivals visit 4 times, your secondary rivals 3 times, and everyone else twice.

This allows teams to have stronger rivalries with most of the nearby teams in the conference. Arkansas has 7 SEC schools in states that border it. Their fans would see them all more frequently than they see a school like Georgia or South Carolina.

I came up with a sample setup for all 14 teams in the SEC. Because all the secondary rivals have to be coordinated, it takes a bit of time to do a complete one (I think I fooled around with this one over and hour and a half last fall while watching a football game). I wasn't aware of any historic 'must-have' rivalries in basketball, so this is based on geography:

Team-3 permanent rivals (4 secondary rivals)
FL-UG,AU,SC (LSU,A&M,UK,Bama)
UG-SC,FL,AU (UT,MSU,VU,UK)
AU-FL,UG,Bama (UK,SC,LSU,MSU)
SC-UG,UF,UT (VU,UK,MU,AU)
UT-VU,UK,SC (Bama,Arkie,UG,MU)
BAMA-AU,OM,MSU (A&M,FL,UT,LSU)
UK-UT,MU,VU (FL,UG,AU,SC)
VU-UT,UK,OM (UG,MU,SC,Arkie)
OM-Bama,MSU,VU (MU,LSU,Arkie,A&M)
MSU-Bama,OM,LSU (Arkie,AU,A&M,UG)
LSU-A&M,Arkie,MSU (AU,Bama,FL,OM)
Arkie-A&M,MU,LSU (OM,VU,MSU,UT)
A&M-LSU,Arkie,MU (MSU,OM,Bama,FL)
MU-UK,A&M,Arkie (SC,UT,OM,VU)

The order the secondary schools are listed indicates where you play them over the 4 year cycle.
For example, MU has (SC,UT,OM,VU) listed. This would be how they appear on the schedule:

Year 1: H:UT,VU,SC A:UT,VU,OM
Year 2: H:SC,OM,UT A:SC,OM,VU
Year 3: H:UT,VU,OM A:UT,VU,SC
Year 4: H:SC,OM,VU A:SC,OM,UT

With Conference play ending for the year, I thought I'd make put my suggestion for a new basketball schedule here.

I suggest every team be given 3 primary rivalries and 4 secondary rivals.

A team would play their primary rivals twice every year.
A team would play 2 of the 4 secondary rivals twice in a given year.

For example, Tennessee might have Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and South Carolina as primary rivals, and Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Missouri as secondary rivals.

In odd years, it would play VU,UK,SC,Arkie, and MU twice.
In even years, it would play VU,UK,SC,Bama, and UG twice.

A full 4-year schedule for Tennessee would look like this:

Year 1:
H: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,Bama,A&M,OM,AU
A: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,UG,FL,MSU,LSU

Year 2:
H: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,Arkie,FL,MSU,LSU
A: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,MU,A&M,OM,AU

Year 3:
H: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,UG,A&M,OM,AU
A: VU,UK,SC,Arkie,MU,Bama,FL,MSU,LSU

Year 4:
H: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,MU,FL,MSU,LSU
A: VU,UK,SC,Bama,UG,Arkie,A&M,OM,AU

If you have season tickets for a standard 4 year collegiate career with this setup, you will see your primary rivals visit 4 times, your secondary rivals 3 times, and everyone else twice.

The order the secondary schools are listed indicates where you play them over the 4 year cycle.
For example, MU has (SC,UT,OM,VU) listed. This would be how they appear on the schedule:

Year 1: H:UT,VU,SC A:UT,VU,OM
Year 2: H:SC,OM,UT A:SC,OM,VU
Year 3: H:UT,VU,OM A:UT,VU,SC
Year 4: H:SC,OM,VU A:SC,OM,UT

Why Can't This Work

2012-03-07T14:51:16Z

Why can't we just re-align the divisions in away that benefits the majority?

We know Florida & Georgia will always be in the same Division, there's really no scenario where that doesn't happen.

I purpose a solution.

Let's move Auburn, and Mississippi State to the East. Then let's move Tennessee and Missouri to the West.

Then in act the PAC-12 rule where in-state schools play each other every year, but everyone else has no protected rivals.

Geographically it makes sense. The potential for an Alabama Auburn rematch in the SEC championship game makes financial sense. Power wise, it makes sense as well. Bama & LSU still rule the West, and the East still has Florida and Georgia as perennial powers.

Looks like this

EAST

Auburn

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Mississippi State

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

WEST

Alabama

Arkansas

LSU

Mississippi

Missouri

Tennessee

Texas A&M

Voice your concerns.

For me this brings back the Auburn Florida rivalry, and ensures the Oldest Rivalry in the South lives on. The West has it's Missouri/Arky/Texas A&M 3 way going on, heck throw in LSU and they are all having a grand old time, as well as that vaunted October match for Bama and UT. Tennessee also gets back that Ole Miss series. And Ole Miss gets to keep all it's Rivalries due to the in-state (PAC-12) rule I'm tossing in there.

Why can't we just re-align the divisions in away that benefits the majority?

We know Florida & Georgia will always be in the same Division, there's really no scenario where that doesn't happen.

I purpose a solution.

Let's move Auburn, and Mississippi State to the East. Then let's move Tennessee and Missouri to the West.

Then in act the PAC-12 rule where in-state schools play each other every year, but everyone else has no protected rivals.

Looks like this

EAST

Auburn

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Mississippi State

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

WEST

Alabama

Arkansas

LSU

Mississippi

Missouri

Tennessee

Texas A&M

Voice your concerns.

More Rumors on LSU Locker Room

2012-01-14T20:03:53Z

A Story from the Blog New Orleans Rising shows more rumors bubbling out about the surprisingly flat showing of LSU at the BCS Championship game. This one posits an altercation between Miles, his OC, and some offensive players that ended up with certain players benched. Here is a small taste:

The LSU team did not arrive at the dome until shortly after 6:00 PM. It seems that T-Bob Hebert & Russell Shepherd met with Les & told him that they were not happy with Jefferson's preparation & attitude leading up to the game. He was purportedly at Harrah's a couple of nights & drinking heavily.

If that wasn't enough, we also get some great conspiracy theories in the comments wherein QB Lee supposedly has a secret medical disability. No word yet on alien abductions or Voodoo Centric Cajun Cabals, but it is just a matter of time.

The LSU team did not arrive at the dome until shortly after 6:00 PM. It seems that T-Bob Hebert & Russell Shepherd met with Les & told him that they were not happy with Jefferson's preparation & attitude leading up to the game. He was purportedly at Harrah's a couple of nights & drinking heavily.

Finally some proof that the SEC is the best conference

2012-01-11T06:05:00Z

Bumped from FanPosts.--ed

I realize some people seem to not grasp the fact that the SEC's 6 straight National Championships prove the assertion that the SEC is the greatest conference in the nation, so here is another stat line that further proves this FACT. I have been watching ESPN basically my entire life and here over the last 3 months I have heard a bunch out of Oklahoma State that for some reason with one year where they was rather good means they deserve the shot at a national title; for some reason they think their schedule is more deserving of a spot in the title game than an SEC team with an equal record to them. I have heard this so much over the last several months, I decided to dig into this bowl season, since you know, it was all about offense and that is what Okay State seems to rest their argument on.

Without further ado, THE SEC's DOMINANCE IS SETTLED. After the jump...

And FYI any Almost Competitive Conference fans, may want to look away. It is really bad for you guys.

Bumped from FanPosts.--ed

Without further ado, THE SEC's DOMINANCE IS SETTLED. After the jump...

And FYI any Almost Competitive Conference fans, may want to look away. It is really bad for you guys.

People seem to forget the age old saying... DEFENSE wins championships. You better believe it, and even in this bowl season that was all about offense, the SEC stood tall on defense. In the 8 bowl games the SEC played in, the defense's allowed an average of 21.5 points per game; out of the AQ conferences, the next best mark? The Big East which played only 5 games and allowed 25.8 points per game, if you look at conferences who played equal bowl games, the Big XII was 2nd, allowing 27.5 points per game. To put these numbers more clearly, the SEC allowed a total of 172 points this bowl season (21 of those are obviously scored on an SEC defense by an SEC offense); in comparison, West Virginia and Baylor combined for 137 points. So if you don't include the 21 points scored on SEC defenses via friendly fire, those two teams scored only 14 points fewer than the SEC allowed in 7 games. The SEC held opposing offenses to under 20 points 5 times this bowl season (including Bama/LSU game); in comparison, the other 5 AQ conferences only totaled 5 games between them where defenses held their opponents to under 20 points.

While I am on the topic of proving theories, I want to debunk one as well. Often we hear that the SEC defenses dominate because the SEC offenses are lackluster at best. During this bowl season, the SEC averaged 28 points per game scored which is good for 4th best. And if you care to take out the SEC conference match-up in bowl season, you can up that point per game total by 1 to 29 points per game, which when your defense is only giving up 21.5 points per game, is more than enough to win any game any time.

Below are the stats for each of the 6 AQ Conferences.... (this is where you turn and run ACC)

Conference (Games)......Points Per Game(rank)..... Points Allowed Per Game(rank)..... (Average Margin)rank

SEC (8 Games)............... 28 (4th)............... 21.5 (1st)............... (+6.5) 1st

B1G (9 Games)............... 23.1 (6th)............... 29.9 (4th)............... (-6.8) 4th

Big XII (8 Games)............... 29.5 (3rd)............... 27.5 (3rd)............... (+2) 3rd

Pac-12 (7 Games)............... 31 (2nd)............... 38.6 (6th)............... (-7.6) 5th

Big East (5 Games)............... 31.6 (1st)............... 25.8 (2nd)............... (+5.8) 2nd

ACC (8 Games)............... 24.3 (5th)............... 33.5 (5th)............... (-9.2) 6th