I think that with 16 as an end game, too many very deserving schools like Kansas, FSU & Clemson get left out & 18 can get everyone where they want to be.
B1G 14 expands to 18 with Virginia. UNC. Duke. Ga Tech. 4 from ACC.
All meet AAU requirements. Expand the Midwest conference south from Maryland to DC, Raleigh-Durham & Atlanta. Keeps a continuous footprint since they all border. I think these 4 schools have to be a packaged deal & would have their choice of SEC or BIG to join. BIG wins as a better academic match.
SEC 14 expands to 18 with NCST. Va Tech. FSU. Clemson. 4 from ACC.
After missing on the flagships, SEC expands into NC & VA with the 2nd schools to reach 16. Need 2 more to keep up with BIG. With the possibility of new 10 game conference schedules, FSU & Clemson finally come home. They beat out Miami, Lville, Cincy & West Va.
PAC 12 expands to 18 with Texas. Oklahoma. Kansas. Tx Tech. Ok St. K-St. 6 from XII.
Texas & Oklahoma are unable to fit into the SEC together since they're packaged with Tx Tech & Ok St by their state governments. PAC tried to add the 5 TX & OK schools to become the PAC 16 a couple years ago.
ACC 14 with 6 left. Miami. Wake. Lville. Pitt. Cuse. BC.
All are small private schools (Pitt half private) except Lville (low ranked academics).
XII 10 with 4 left. Baylor. TCU. Iowa St. West Va.
2 private schools & 2 in tiny states.
Those 2 merge = 10.
Joined by 8 teams from AAC. SMU. Houston. Memphis. USF. UCF. ECU. Cincy. UConn.
Mostly large commuter schools except SMU is private.
To create a 4th BCS conference of 18 teams. 13 of these teams were BCS before the Big East folded. 4 TX teams like XII & CUSA always have. 3 FL schools. I think they deserve to play at the same level as the other 3 conferences.
There would need to be 9 or even 10 conference games. Some out of conference matchups like UNC-NCST & UVa-Va Tech need to be preserved.