Last week: 12-1 straight up, 7-2 against the spread
This is not a good week to be picking games. There are a lot of large lines thanks to weak teams being featured in a lot of places, and that makes for tricky picking.
Florida (-3) over Miami (FL) 27-10
Kentucky (-17) over Miami (OH) 24-13
This is what I was talking about. It seems easy on the surface: don't take this UK team by 17 over anyone, right? Except Miami (OH) got splattered by Marshall last week. I still am going to be cautious here, but if I was putting real money on anything, I wouldn't touch this with a 39.5 foot pole.
Tennessee (-13.5) over WKU 33-23
This game is ripe for over thinking too. WKU isn't bad; they beat Kentucky and have Petrino. But, Kentucky is awful, and WKU didn't win by a mile. Tennessee won by a lot last week and actually was the national No. 1 in both offensive and defense S&P+. But, it's a new coach and that was against a I-AA team. Here's where I throw up my hands and take the points.
Missouri (-17) over Toledo 44-30
This has shootout potential, and as my man Ty says, take the points in a shootout.
South Carolina (+3) over Georgia 38-27
I love South Carolina in this game. UGA will get some points, but the offensive line looked bad and the defense was going vanilla due to youth. I really like South Carolina in this one.
LSU (-34.5) over UAB 45-6
Hit it, Admiral Ackbar. This line is a big, flashing, red trap. LSU is coming home after a big win and will now play against a Sun Belt tomato can. The offense looks a lot better, so I'm going to pick the Tigers to cover, but this could easily be a 30-6 snoozer if they decide they don't care. It all depends on how much practice Les Miles and Cam Cameron want the first teamers to get.
Auburn (-13) over Arkansas State 40-31
I bet this one will not be all that different than AU's game last week. It'll be tight for a half, Auburn will look like the better team in the second half, but it won't quite pull away.
Mississippi State over Alcorn State 27-9
Arkansas over Samford 55-20
Ole Miss over SE Missouri State 59-17
Texas A&M over Sam Houston State 52-27
Vanderbilt over Austin Peay 49-10