Last week: 11-1 straight up, 8-3 against the spread
Season: 29-5 straight up, 16-12 against the spread
If the rapidly emerging pattern holds up, I will to terribly this week like in Week 2 after good Weeks 1 and 3. Let's drive this bus off a cliff, shall we?
Ole Miss (-19) over Tulane 27-13
As bad as Tulane is, 19 is a big number for Ole Miss on the road. Tulane lost to Rutgers by just 12 at home, and Ole Miss beat UTEP by only 18 in Oxford. I'll take the points here.
Florida (-24) over Kentucky 48-9
There is a chance for a let down after two big road wins, but this is the neighborhood of the last four UK-UK scores. Even as the Gators' fortunes have risen and fallen, they've been able to blow away Kentucky by scores of more than 24. At home, I'll call for the Gators to cover.
South Carolina (-10.5) over Missouri 24-20
I have no good feel for this game and don't like this line one bit. I'll take the points as a result, but with two banged up quarterbacks, this one is a complete mystery to me.
Alabama (-49.5) over FAU 55-0
Unless Nick Saban takes his foot off the gas, this game could be even worse than this.
LSU (-20.5) over Auburn 45-10
While it's true that LSU hasn't played well on the Plains lately, Auburn has generally been better in even years (except 2008) and LSU has been better in odd years (when the game is in Baton Rouge). No more quirks of fate are at play here. LSU rolls.
Arkansas (-9) over Rutgers 34-20
With Tyler Wilson back healthy against an offensively challenged opponent, the Razorbacks will show some pride and rebound for at least one week.
Mississippi State (-34) over South Alabama 56-7
After a close scrape at Troy, Dan Mullen will have his team wide awake in front of a rocking home crowd for this one.
Tennessee (-33) over Akron 52-23
UT will either get out its frustrations with a giant rout or have a hangover from last week and get pushed somewhat by an Akron team that maybe isn't quite as bad as you might think (maybe). I'm guessing the latter, given the (lack of) maturity shown by the team in its complete second half collapse a week ago.
Georgia (-15.5) over Vanderbilt 41-17
I'm expecting something similar to the UGA-Mizzou game where it's close for a while and then Georgia just pulls away at the end.
Texas A&M over SC State 66-3