The main set of bowl projections is still here, and that's the method I've used for a few years now.
I've wanted to overhaul the method for a while now to include an adjustment for pace, as that's a much more important aspect of today's game. In the past, most everyone was either slow or moderate. Now, we've got teams that like to go quickly all the time and hit 80 plays per game. The old method adjusts for opponent; this one does opponent and pace.
I don't feel like taking the time to document this new method in case it turns out to be awful, but here's the gist. It first projects how many plays each team will run in the game in the same way that the other system does for points. It then projects yards per play in the same way. Finally, it projects a point total for each team based on the yardage.
We'll see how this goes. Far and away the biggest change from the other one is in the Las Vegas Bowl, where Washington goes from being blown out there to a slight win here. Other big changes include the Orange, where FSU goes from a slight win to a touchdown win, and the Chick-fil-A Bowl where LSU goes from a slight loss to a field goal winner.
USC 35-30 GT + points
|New Mexico||Nevada vs. Arizona||Arizona -9.5||Nevada 43-40||Nevada + points|
|Famous Idaho Potato||Toledo vs. Utah State||USU -10.5||Utah St. 33-23||Toledo + points|
|Poinsettia||BYU vs. SDSU||BYU -2.5||BYU 24-19||BYU|
|St. Petersburg||UCF vs. Ball State||UCF -7||UCF 34-29||Ball State + points|
|New Orleans||ECU vs. LA-Lafayette||ULL -6||ULL 35-31||ECU + points|
|Las Vegas||Washington vs. Boise St.||BSU -5.5||UW 19.0-18.7||UW + points|
|Hawaii||Fresno St. vs SMU||Fresno -12.5||Fresno 37-21||Fresno St.|
|Little Caesar's||WKU vs. Central Michigan||WKU -5.5||WKU 31-25||WKU|
|Military||SJSU vs. Bowling Green||SJSU -7||SJSU 23-19||BGSU + points|
|Belk||Cincinnati vs. Duke||Cincy -7||Cincy 37-24||Cincinnati|
|Holiday||Baylor vs. UCLA||Pick||UCLA 44-40||UCLA|
|Independence||Ohio vs. LA-Monroe||ULM -7||ULM 33-30||Ohio + points|
|Russell Athletic||Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech||VT -2.5||Rutgers 21-19||Rutgers + points|
|Car Care of Texas||Minnesota vs. Texas Tech||TTU -13||TTU 30-22||Minn + points|
|Armed Forces||Rice vs. Air Force||AFA -1||AFA 31-28||Air Force|
|Pinstripe||West Virginia vs. Syracuse||WVU -4||Syracuse 42-37||Syracuse + points|
|Fight Hunger||Navy vs. Arizona St.||ASU -14.5||ASU 29-22||Navy + points|
|Alamo||Texas vs. Oregon St.||OSU -2||OSU 30-27||Oregon St.|
|Buffalo Wild Wings||TCU vs. Michigan St.||TCU -2.5||TCU 19-17||Michigan St. + points|
|Music City||NC State vs. Vanderbilt||Vandy -7||VU 25-22||NCSU + points|
|Sun||USC vs. Georgia Tech||USC -10||USC 35-29||GT + points|
|Liberty||Iowa State vs. Tulsa||Pick||Tulsa 29-19||Tulsa|
|Chick-fil-A||LSU vs. Clemson||LSU -4||LSU 30.0-25.6||LSU|
|Gator||Miss St. vs. Northwestern||MSU -2||MSU 27-26||N'Western + points|
|Heart of Dallas||Purdue vs. Oklahoma St.||OSU -16.5||OSU 41-28||Purdue + points|
|Capital One||Georgia vs. Nebraska||UGA -10||UGA 33-27||Nebraska + points|
|Outback||South Carolina vs. Michigan||SC -5||Michigan 23-21||Michigan + points|
|Rose||Wisconsin vs. Stanford||Stanford -6.5||UW 19.3-19.0||Wisconsin + points|
|Orange||NIU vs. Florida St.||FSU -13||FSU 32-24||NIU + points|
|Sugar||Louisville vs. Florida||Florida -13.5||Florida 25-19||Louisville + points|
|Fiesta||Oregon vs. Kansas St.||Oregon -9.5||Oregon 36-31||KSU + points|
|Cotton||Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma||TAMU -4.5||TAMU 37-32||Texas A&M|
|BBVA Compass||Pittsburgh vs. Ole Miss||Miss -3.5||Pitt 27-26||Pittsburgh + points|
|GoDaddy||Kent St. vs. Arkansas St.||ASU -4||KSU 33.5-33.2||Kent St. + points|
|BCS NCG||Alabama vs. Notre Dame||Bama -10||Bama 19-14||Notre Dame + points|
Green in the "Projection" column indicates a correct pick straight up; green in the "Pick" column indicates a correct pick against the spread. You can guess what red means.