FanPost

An Alternate Set of Bowl Projections

The main set of bowl projections is still here, and that's the method I've used for a few years now.

I've wanted to overhaul the method for a while now to include an adjustment for pace, as that's a much more important aspect of today's game. In the past, most everyone was either slow or moderate. Now, we've got teams that like to go quickly all the time and hit 80 plays per game. The old method adjusts for opponent; this one does opponent and pace.

I don't feel like taking the time to document this new method in case it turns out to be awful, but here's the gist. It first projects how many plays each team will run in the game in the same way that the other system does for points. It then projects yards per play in the same way. Finally, it projects a point total for each team based on the yardage.

We'll see how this goes. Far and away the biggest change from the other one is in the Las Vegas Bowl, where Washington goes from being blown out there to a slight win here. Other big changes include the Orange, where FSU goes from a slight win to a touchdown win, and the Chick-fil-A Bowl where LSU goes from a slight loss to a field goal winner.

USC 35-30 GT + points

Bowl Teams Favorite Projection Pick
New Mexico Nevada vs. Arizona Arizona -9.5 Nevada 43-40 Nevada + points
Famous Idaho Potato Toledo vs. Utah State USU -10.5 Utah St. 33-23 Toledo + points
Poinsettia BYU vs. SDSU BYU -2.5 BYU 24-19 BYU
St. Petersburg UCF vs. Ball State UCF -7 UCF 34-29 Ball State + points
New Orleans ECU vs. LA-Lafayette ULL -6 ULL 35-31 ECU + points
Las Vegas Washington vs. Boise St. BSU -5.5 UW 19.0-18.7 UW + points
Hawaii Fresno St. vs SMU Fresno -12.5 Fresno 37-21 Fresno St.
Little Caesar's WKU vs. Central Michigan WKU -5.5 WKU 31-25 WKU
Military SJSU vs. Bowling Green SJSU -7 SJSU 23-19 BGSU + points
Belk Cincinnati vs. Duke Cincy -7 Cincy 37-24 Cincinnati
Holiday Baylor vs. UCLA Pick UCLA 44-40 UCLA
Independence Ohio vs. LA-Monroe ULM -7 ULM 33-30 Ohio + points
Russell Athletic Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech VT -2.5 Rutgers 21-19 Rutgers + points
Car Care of Texas Minnesota vs. Texas Tech TTU -13 TTU 30-22 Minn + points
Armed Forces Rice vs. Air Force AFA -1 AFA 31-28 Air Force
Pinstripe West Virginia vs. Syracuse WVU -4 Syracuse 42-37 Syracuse + points
Fight Hunger Navy vs. Arizona St. ASU -14.5 ASU 29-22 Navy + points
Alamo Texas vs. Oregon St. OSU -2 OSU 30-27 Oregon St.
Buffalo Wild Wings TCU vs. Michigan St. TCU -2.5 TCU 19-17 Michigan St. + points
Music City NC State vs. Vanderbilt Vandy -7 VU 25-22 NCSU + points
Sun USC vs. Georgia Tech USC -10 USC 35-29 GT + points
Liberty Iowa State vs. Tulsa Pick Tulsa 29-19 Tulsa
Chick-fil-A LSU vs. Clemson LSU -4 LSU 30.0-25.6 LSU
Gator Miss St. vs. Northwestern MSU -2 MSU 27-26 N'Western + points
Heart of Dallas Purdue vs. Oklahoma St. OSU -16.5 OSU 41-28 Purdue + points
Capital One Georgia vs. Nebraska UGA -10 UGA 33-27 Nebraska + points
Outback South Carolina vs. Michigan SC -5 Michigan 23-21 Michigan + points
Rose Wisconsin vs. Stanford Stanford -6.5 UW 19.3-19.0 Wisconsin + points
Orange NIU vs. Florida St. FSU -13 FSU 32-24 NIU + points
Sugar Louisville vs. Florida Florida -13.5 Florida 25-19 Louisville + points
Fiesta Oregon vs. Kansas St. Oregon -9.5 Oregon 36-31 KSU + points
Cotton Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma TAMU -4.5 TAMU 37-32 Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Pittsburgh vs. Ole Miss Miss -3.5 Pitt 27-26 Pittsburgh + points
GoDaddy Kent St. vs. Arkansas St. ASU -4 KSU 33.5-33.2 Kent St. + points
BCS NCG Alabama vs. Notre Dame Bama -10 Bama 19-14 Notre Dame + points

Green in the "Projection" column indicates a correct pick straight up; green in the "Pick" column indicates a correct pick against the spread. You can guess what red means.

A FanPost gives the opinion of the fan who writes it and that fan only. That doesn't give the opinion more or less weight than any other opinion on this blog, but the post does not necessarily reflect the view of TSK's writers.

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