Last week: 6-0 straight up, 2-3 against the spread
Season: 44-6 straight up, 21-21 against the spread
I am going to be in the Swamp for the big LSU-Florida game tomorrow, which means I've been traveling over the past couple of days. I actually composed this post two days ago on Wednesday, so if any lines have moved greatly since then, that's where the discrepancy comes from.
Auburn (-9.5) over Arkansas 34-20
Arkansas's defense is playing so bad right now that I think even Auburn can cover against them. This is probably a bad bet, though, given that Arkansas's offense could carve up the AU defense.
Mississippi State (-10) over Kentucky 30-10
The Bulldogs have looked iffy in some of their non-conference games, but they'll be awake and alert for a conference game. Probably. I mean, it is at Kentucky after all.
LSU (-2.5) over Florida 24-20
Florida is not quite ready to win this kind of game yet, and LSU is a bad matchup for the Gators. Their run defense is just OK, and LSU loves to run the ball. Florida's offensive line is better, but it's not nearly as good as LSU's defensive line. It will be a close game, but LSU takes it.
Missouri (-7) over Vanderbilt 20-6
The Commodores have been dreadful on the road so far this year, so Missouri should be able to take care of business at home.
Texas A&M (-12) over Ole Miss 44-24
The Aggies are on a roll, and their defense should cause enough problems to make this one a relatively easy win.
Georgia (+1.5) over South Carolina 27-16
I'm not sure why Georgia is getting points here, even if it is on the road. UGA's passing attack is the kind that South Carolina typically doesn't handle well, and it should be cranking at a high level even with Michael Bennett now out for the year. The Gamecocks also don't have the kind of downfield passing that Tennessee used to give the Bulldogs problems a week ago. The score prediction here might be a bit low for both teams, but the margin is probably about right.