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What Is Auburn Getting in Scot Loeffler?

Auburn has hired Scot Loeffler as its offensive coordinator. Just what is the school getting with him?

A difficult name to spell.

People have a hard time with even simple names. I could have bought a car if I had a nickel for every time I saw Urban's name spelled "Myer" or "Meyers". I could upgrade the interior with only one season of "Charlie Weiss".

That's Scot: one T. That's Loeffler: an oe, two Fs, and pronounced "LEFF-ler". Don't expect people to get it right regularly.

A guy who's been around some good quarterbacks, and developed a couple more.

Loeffler's claim to fame is as a quarterback guru. If you read his bio from Temple, his previous coaching stop, you see names like Tim Tebow, Chad Henne, Tom Brady, and Brian Griese. Some places will attach Ryan Mallett's name to him as well.

I am not a quarterback guru, so it's difficult for me to say exactly what he did for these players. However, he was only a GA and student assistant when Brady and Griese were in Ann Arbor. He spent one season with Mallett, who then spent three seasons with Bobby Petrino and Garrick McGee. He spent one season with Tebow, one in which all of the quarterback's bad habits got demonstrably worse (though a concussion likely had a lot to do with that). One name conspicuously missing is that of John Brantley. Loeffler spent two seasons with him with little to show for it.

Henne is the only one of that list he truly developed. He also coached up John Navarre at Michigan. Both of them hold assorted school records for passing. That's pretty good, but he sounds a lot better if he is allowed to bask in the reflected glory of Brady's NFL career.

One year of offensive coordinating experience.

Loeffler has only a single year of offensive coordinating experience from this past year at Temple. Excluding data from I-AA games, Temple was fifth in the MAC and 39th in the nation in scoring offense at 29.7 points per game. It was also seventh in the MAC and 68th nationally in total offense at 375.5 yards per game. Those figures are up about five points and 40 yards over 2010, but the ranks within the conference are nearly the same as in 2010 (fifth in scoring, sixth in yardage).

The offense was heavily run-based, with 636 carries versus 198 pass attempts (no allowances for sacks there). Principally, it was geared around handing the ball off to Bernard Pierce, who had 1,481 yards on 273 carries (5.4 YPC). He served under an offensive head coach in Steve Addazio, which makes it quite likely that he didn't have full control of the offense.

Two years of SEC experience.

For however much value you want to place on it, Loeffler had two years at Florida under Urban Meyer from 2009-10. That's it, though it probably doesn't matter.

A lot of questions.

Loeffler's background largely came from the traditional stylings of the Lloyd Carr regime at Michigan, though he has spent the past three years learning spread option from Meyer and Addazio. In theory, that experience would give him the ability to mix and match the best of both worlds to maximize the potential of his roster in any given year.

However, he's quite young a 37. His only year as an offensive coordinator came in a situation where he didn't have the kind of autonomy that Gene Chizik is likely to give him. He won't be doing a hurry up offense, as his "protect the defense" comments probably indicate. Beyond that, he was evasive about what precisely he'll run.

The best case scenario is that Auburn got in on the ground floor of a true "rising star" (Chizik's words) in the coaching profession. The worst case is that it got a less sanctimonious version of Charlie Weis: a guy who cannot focus an offense and tries to do too much. It's a calculated risk, but Auburn certainly could have done a lot worse than hiring a quarterback guru after the issues the team had at that position in 2011.

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YPP?

No, the scoring and total yardage ranks aren’t impressive, but it’s worth noting that all those runs shortened Temple’s games and depressed their total numbers. The Owls finished 35th in yards per-play—a 27-spot jump from 2010. And if their scoring didn’t jump much within the MAC, it sure as hell did nationally—79th to 39th. (It’s not like there’s a lot of shame in not being able to keep up with offenses like Toledo’s or NIU’s anyway, is there?)

Also, I think it’s fair to point out that if Loeffler’s Owls ran it a ton, they were pretty good at it—7th in total rushing, and still an effective 14th in yards per-carry.

None of this changes that Loeffler is, as you accurately call him, a “calculated risk.” But I think the numbers from Temple’s lone season under his direction were a little rosier than they appear to be above.

by JCCW Jerry on Jan 23, 2012 5:48 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

It’s possible that I did undersell Temple this year. I still have questions though.

Temple only averaged 0.26 yards per play above what it did in 2010 (no I-AA stats). I think that big jump nationally in yards per play probably had to do with moving around in a jumble of teams that don’t have much difference between them. Plus, the average in the MAC was an increase of 0.35 yards per play; the Owls lagged behind the conference’s average improvement.

The increased scoring is more significant. MAC scoring rose by an average of 2.76 points per game. The average delta for each team year-over-year was 2.57. Temple’s improvement of 5.2 points per game was 2.62 points per game above the average delta and slightly greater than one standard deviation (4.59). I think that’s a lot more notable than the yardage difference.

Still though, how much was the new offense and how much was Pierce having a breakout season and becoming NFL-ready? He’ll be playing on Sundays next year, and having an NFL-caliber back can make a big difference for less-talented teams. Rutgers hasn’t been the same without Ray Rice, and Dan Mullen’s best rushing season in Starkville is still his first when he had Anthony Dixon.

And besides, keeping it simple, we still don’t know where Addazio’s influence ends and Loeffler’s begins. The rushing game is Addazio’s specialty as a former O-line coach and a guy who ran straight-up triple option when he was a high school head coach.

The best case of Loeffler is still in his time at Michigan. He groomed back-to-back quarterbacks who each set a number of school records. His time at Florida was neutral at best (if you assume all the QB issues were due to meddling from Meyer), and one season anywhere, much less one with all those questions, is inconclusive.

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by Year2 on Jan 24, 2012 8:23 AM EST up reply actions  

All fair enough.

Like I said, won’t argue with your conclusion; Loeffler’s a gamble.

by JCCW Jerry on Jan 24, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it goes without saying that he wasn't Chiziks first choice. Or even his second for that matter.

No way he would have waited this long to make the hire seeing how it has affected their recruiting. I guess in the end it’s much like most assistant coach hires in that only time will tell.

by burmbuster on Jan 23, 2012 9:13 PM EST reply actions  

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