Ridiculously Early BlogPoll and the Insanity It Produces
by cocknfire on Jan 19, 2012 9:00 AM EST
in SEC Football
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PrintSo they're asking us to put together preseason BlogPoll ballots at very points in the offseason this year, and it's time to cast the first one. This probably isn't a great idea when it comes to yours truly, because it's the part of the year where I think crazy things like, "I just might rank Arkansas No. 2 in 2012." This used to be the kind of insanity I could talk myself out of by the time the season rolls around, but there is no such chance this year. So the most bizarre preseason ballot you are likely to see follows:
Team Speed Kills Ballot - Week 17
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | USC Trojans |  6 |
| 2 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 3 |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide |  -2 |
| 4 | Michigan Wolverines | 9 |
| 5 | Florida St. Seminoles | 18 |
| 6 | LSU Tigers | -4 |
| 7 | Oregon Ducks | -3 |
| 8 | TCU Horned Frogs | 8 |
| 9 | Washington Huskies | -- |
| 10 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 11 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1 |
| 12 | Kansas St. Wildcats | 3 |
| 13 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -- |
| 14 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -5 |
| 15 | Georgia Bulldogs | 3 |
| 16 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 1 |
| 17 | Texas Longhorns | -- |
| 18 | Clemson Tigers | 2 |
| 19 | Louisville Cardinals | -- |
| 20 | Wisconsin Badgers | -12 |
| 21 | Missouri Tigers | -- |
| 22 | Virginia Cavaliers | -- |
| 23 | Stanford Cardinal | -17 |
| 24 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -- |
| 25 | Vanderbilt Commodores | -- |
| Dropouts: Oklahoma St. Cowboys, Michigan St. Spartans, Baylor Bears, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Southern Miss. Golden Eagles, Houston Cougars, Cincinnati Bearcats, Rutgers Scarlet Knights | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
To be clear, because it might not be after that introduction: I'm not joking. At the same time, I am 100 percent confident that the actual preseason ballot I submit will be dramatically different than this one. But I try to intentionally get myself to think outside of the box this far ahead of the season, both so I make sure that I'm not just following the conventional wisdom and to make sure that I get it out of my system before August.
The reasons, as best as I can describe them, follow the jump.
Top 5: Arkansas is obviously the high-beta team here. I like what the Razorbacks are beginning to put together on offense, so much so that I think that Tyler Wilson under center might be enough to offset the loss of the wide receiving corps. Gulp. I guess. Southern Cal will probably crash and burn at some point of the season because Lane Kiffin wants to prove a point playing Washington State and gets a starter injured or something, but until they do... I think Michigan and Florida State grow up a lot in the offseason, and I think Alabama is just a bit off with some of the losses they're taking.
Top 10: Yeah, I put LSU outside of the Top 5. Part of that is because I have very little confidence that the LSU we saw in the national championship game might be the real thing. Let's not forget that LSU also missed South Carolina and Georgia during the regular season this season -- they will face South Carolina in 2012 -- and were losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game before rallying. With Darron Thomas going insane and declaring for the NFL Draft, I'm not quite sure what to do with Oregon. TCU might win the Big 12 in its first year in the conference, and Washington is probably ridiculously overrated here but that's where they start. Boise -- meh.
Top 15: Oklahoma and Kansas State have to go somewhere, I guess. I actually ranked Virginia Tech on this ballot, because I think they might actually be the team that everyone thought they were this year despite abundant proof that they weren't. South Carolina/Georgia, Georgia/South Carolina -- whatever. There's abundant reason to overlook either of them, my problem with Georgia being that I'm still not sure they can win against anything except the easiest schedule in the SEC. So maybe I need to put them in the Top 10.
Top 20: I'm not even sure which conference West Virginia is going to be in when the 2012 season starts, and I don't think they do either. But this seems like a fair place for a team with the upside and downside they have against a schedule ... well, a schedule in whatever conference they will be competing in. Texas still doesn't have an offense and Clemson apparently doesn't have a defense. Louisville, because they're rebounding under Charlie Strong and why not? Wisconsin still has Montee Ball.
Top 25: FOR ALL THE DARTBOARDS! Missouri, welcome to the you're-in-the-SEC-so-everyone-will-wildly-overrank-you-in-the-preseason bump. (I was going to put Texas A&M in there, but they dropped off the ballot at the last minute. I'm here all week.) Virginia could be on the way up and Stanford is on the way down, but has Stepfan Taylor. Notre Dame. I have no idea why. And we'll give our Duke place on this ballot to Vanderbilt, which might have a very good team next year. Or probably not.
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ZOMG HOW COULD YOU DISS THE MIGHTY SCARLET KNIGHTS OF RUTGERS BY NOT RANKING THEM AT ALL.
This gross neglect shall not go unnoticed…
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
Man.
You really bashed LSU’s schedule. Even though they at least got Georgia in the SECCG and faced better OOC opponents than Alabama did.
- FOW
I agree
They embarrassed themselves in the first half of the seccg but were still able to embarrass UGA in the end. They easily handled the Rose Bowl champ and the Orange Bowl champ. By most peoples figuring, they had the toughest schedule in the country. If that’s your reasoning, its seriously flawed.
by Mark Mandingo on Jan 19, 2012 4:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Umm...
how can ANYONE besmirch LSU’s scheduling last year? Because they didn’t play the powerhouse of USC? C’mon
"Well, it's 1 a.m. Better go home and spend some quality time with the wife and kids" - Homer J. Simpson
by Gov. William J. Le Petomane on Jan 19, 2012 4:38 PM EST reply actions
I think i'll pile on as well
If i had to pick a NC game right now, I would put LSU vs USC in it. I also like what Ark is doing, but I just don’t think they will be able to make up the difference between them and the top two. They very well couuld go 11-2 again, but I just don’t see them beating LSU or Bama. Also, I think (read: hope) Bama is losing more than LSU, and their game is in red stick this year. I do think LSU will win that game, the SECW, and the SECCG. I do think USC is, and should be the number 1 team, although they might be just like UGA circa 2008.
Let me clarify on the LSU thing
My point was not that LSU did not have a difficult schedule, just that it’s conference schedule did allow it to miss the two strongest teams in the SEC East during the regular season — as did Alabama’s — even though Arkansas had to face one of them. Granted, strongest in the SEC East is a relative measure, but it could have made a difference. Probably not, because we saw how the LSU game against Georgia played out and there’s no reason to think that South Carolina would have fared any better, but it could even had made a difference just on the wear-and-tear end of things. If we’re talking about LSU’s overall schedule — not just the one that counts toward the SEC West standings — yeah, it’s harder.
LSU is also losing both of its starting quarterbacks this year — yeah, spare me the “but the new guy can’t possibly be any worse,” because I’ve heard that before and sometimes he is — and I’m just not confident that they can generate the same turnovers and field position that they did this year. (Though having the Honey Badger and Wing will help, no question.)
Add into that how LSU looked when it didn’t get the field position and turnovers in the game against Alabama, and you have the problems that persuaded me to drop LSU. Again, I could change my mind about all of that before the season actually starts, but that’s where I am now.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Oh, and
A sort of unfinished thought was that if we’re going to say that Georgia missing Alabama, Arkansas and LSU had an effect this year, it’s a kind of goose/gander thing to note that LSU missed the biggest interdivision threats.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
There were also trailing Arkansas the week before that.
Before a timely special teams play cracked things open. Ring a bell? Look, I completely agree about punishing them for how awfully they performed in the MNC. I don’t think calling out their scheduling luck by missing South Carolina and Georgia in the regular season carries much weight. Two reasons, they beat the two teams that beat USC, and in beating Georgia in the SECCG, they beat a team that USC barely beat. And they not only beat the two teams that beat USC, they handled them with ease.
While Jefferson was so God awful in that game, I really do believe the new guy couldn’t be much worse. But will they get the luck in turnovers and special teams? It would be hard for them to match 2011… but I think you could say that without quibbling over the anticipated production level of the new guy.
- FOW
by skandrewj62j on Jan 20, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
I would agree that calling them out isn't fair
But I think that it is fair to note that in this sense: it will be harder for LSU to go undefeated and/or get into the SEC Championship game with South Carolina and Texas A&M on the schedule than with Kentucky and Tennessee on it. I think it’s a factor that has to be considered, along with losing the two starting quarterbacks and the likelihood that the turnover margin will return to the mean.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
WE'LL TAKE IT
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by KingJamesIV on Jan 19, 2012 7:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
That is about where I would put USC right now.
Losing Alshon, an o-line that couldn’t protect well enough and losing leaders on Defense. It’ll be easy for USC to move up with a few wins at the beginning of the year. 14 doesn’t bother me. We’ll be a 12-16 team at the beginning of the year.
Curious about Washington being number 9 though.
- FOW
by skandrewj62j on Jan 20, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Alshon’s production from 2011 is easily replaced, if not surpassed. The O-line had 2 freshman, and they acquired invaluable experience. Defense is a concern in the secondary, but offense should be fine.
I’d agree with putting them down to 11 or 12. But I’d put both UGA and SC ahead of VTech.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Alshon's production can probably be easily replaced
But South Carolina is still easier to defend against with him gone, because opponents no longer have to worry about him as a downfield threat, and South Carolina really doesn’t have anyone with his combination of size, strength and speed in the WR corps.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
At this point..
Why rank FSU at all, let alone top 5?
We’ve seen this movie before, every year for a decade running now.
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