Utah is the Most Interesting Team of 2011
by Year2 on Aug 29, 2011 1:30 PM EDT
in SEC Football
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PrintWe've all heard, if not participated in, the argument before: could a team from the best of the non-AQ ranks really survive or even succeed in a Big Six conference?
Utah, Boise State, and TCU have proven that they can win a given game over the best of the BCS conferences. Collectively, they own wins over a Big East champ, Big 12 champ, Pac-10 champ, otherwise 11-1 Big Ten team and otherwise 12-1 SEC team. There is no doubt that on any given day, the cream of the non-AQ crop can win individual high quality games.
The question is whether those teams could survive the grind of being in a Big Six conference. Top-to-bottom, BCS conference teams have bigger and faster players who hit harder than those in the WAC and MWC. Team depth is a major concern thanks to the injuries that tend to pile up over a season. Not only that, but the AQ leagues have better coaches, and team weaknesses can be better identified if a different high quality coaching staff is exposing a different one each week. It's much more difficult to pick out the weaknesses of a team that wins nine or 10 of its games by blowouts.
Utah is the first test case of a non-AQ team joining a power conference since three CUSA teams joined the Big East. However the Pac-12 is better than the Big East was back then, and Utah has been a better program prior to entry than USF, Cincinnati and Louisville were prior to their call up to the big leagues. It's true that TCU is joining the Big East next year, but again, it's not the same.
Unfortunately, the schedule makers treated the Utes with kid gloves. They're already in what will be the weaker of the two divisions this year, and they missed both Oregon and Stanford from the North division. A pair of decent non-conference road games at BYU and at Pitt help ratchet up the degree of difficulty, but that really is no substitute for facing the Ducks or Cardinal. Instead they drew a pair of solid yet unspectacular teams in Cal and Oregon State along with mediocre-at-best Colorado Washington and dreadful Washington State from the North division.
If the preseason consensus is to be believed, Utah must make sure it finishes ahead of Arizona State to go to the Pac-12 Championship Game. USC is a popular pick to finish first, but its postseason ban includes conference title games. Utah making that contest would be perhaps the best way to test out the "non-AQ teams can't survive the grind" hypothesis, because it would face a likely top-10 team in Oregon or Stanford after a full season of beating rather than in September or after a month's worth of pre-bowl rest.
Utah is returning just 12 starters (by Phil Steele's count), and both of last year's top rushers who lead the team by a mile are gone. Dealing with personnel turnover is a fact of life in all levels of football though. This team is our best chance to see what happens when you take a high-end MWC team and drop it into a BCS league.
That is, until we see which non-AQ schools the Big 12 replaces Texas A&M with.
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I hope Utah is mildly successful.
Successful enough that Boise decides to join a real conference (so they can stop hiding behind their “home and home, 50/50 revenue split” curtain) and gets destroyed. Then the media hype that keeps them afloat can end, and their fans can lose their entitled attitude.
"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood." -- Paul "Bear" Bryant
Boise State would join the Pac-12 or Big 12 in a heartbeat. It upgraded from the WAC to the MWC without any hesitation. The problem is that the big conferences won’t invite them. They’re not hiding whatsoever.
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They're not hiding
But, they don’t bring anything to the table for a big conference. The school is not a particularly good one, academically, has little history of success in football, and doesn’t come from a particularly large media market. What reason does the Pac-12 or Big XII have for admitting them (outside of pure desperation on the part of the Big XII)? I agree they’re not hiding, but Big-6 teams gain very little from scheduling them, and stand to lose a lot. Georgia’s in a unique situation this year, coming off a bad year. But why would Alabama or Penn State, etc., ever want a home and home deal with them? It’s like throwing money away.
DawgSports/Falcaholic/Talkin' Chop
Right
It was a JUCO until the mid-60s, and its big time football success is less than a decade old. Ten years ago, the team lost to a 7-5 Louisiana Tech team and was hammered by an 8-4 Rice team.
Its football program has grown quickly, but it has far outpaced the academic progress of the school. Idaho isn’t a populous state either, which hurts in the TV considerations.
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If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
I made the argument to some Big 12 folks that Boise St would be a good pick.
If there is any chance(and that is even somewhat slim at this point) for the Big 12 to survive then they are going to have to make themselves viable again. They can’t pick up current AQs because none of those schools would jump ship to a sinking Big 12 if they are in their right mind. That only leaves non-AQs. I would pick BYU, Boise St, and Fresno St.
BSU is not strong academically, but the only thing that can save the Big 12 is a strong football conference that can generate a lot of TV cash nationwide. The academics of the Big 12 won’t matter if there is no Big 12 around. BSU does have a commitment to football though and with their recent success have established a name for themselves in the world of non-AQs. They are also a media darling and have gathered quite a bandwagon following across the country. I would be willing to bet that a Boise St game would get higher ratings across the country than about half of the teams that are already in the Big 12. And Idaho is not a large media market, but like most of the best college football states they don’t have any major pro sports teams. The state is also one of the fastest growing in the country and the people actually care about football. There is a reason that BSU had a primetime game against Virginia Tech last year and another one against UGA this year. The folks at ESPN know that they are a media draw. The only other non-AQs that would get those games on TV are TCU and BYU.
people care about football in boise?
They get good numbers on tv because they are fun to watch. You know they are always good for a zainy trick play or two.
The people in the state don’t care though. They rarely sell out even their small stadium.
"If wanting to win is a fault, as some of my critics seem to insist, then I plead guilty. I like to win. I know no other way. It's in my blood." -- Paul "Bear" Bryant
by GeauxCrimson on Aug 30, 2011 8:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Quick Quibble
Instead they drew a pair of solid yet unspectacular teams in Cal and Oregon State along with mediocre-at-best Colorado and dreadful Washington State from the North division.
Colorado is in the south, meaning Utah drew Wazzu, Cal, Washington, and Oregon State.
Personally, I think one of Cal, Washington, or Arizona is going to exceed expectations and win 6 conference games, placing them at 8-4/9-3 for the year. Regardless, Utah definitely has the most favorable conference schedule in the Pac-12.
I support the NBA player's union.
Furthermore
Arizona State, a preseason favorite, has already suffered a rash of season-long injuries to key personnel.
I support the NBA player's union.
Thanks
I wrote this at roughly 2 am while waiting through a work issue that kept me up all night. I plead temporary insanity.
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If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
No Worries & keep up the good work
Personally, I love these conference blogs, it allows me to keep an eye on the rest of the nation, without having to work through tons of specialized blogs.
I support the NBA player's union.
Regardless of their schedule strength in the Pac 12....
it is still tougher than what they had in the MWC. They are still playing BYU so that game is a wash. The only other decent team in the MWC last year was TCU. I guess you could count SDSU as well, but that was probably just a one year bump.
It will be interesting to see how Utah fares. I think in time they will be competitive, but they may struggle making a bowl game this year. I’d say 6 or 7 wins.
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