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Parting Shots: Why the Longhorn Network is Bad for College Football

It's DeLoss Dodds' country now. The rest of us should just be grateful the Texas athletics director tolerates our presence.

Saying farewell to an incredibly busy offseason

Much of the debate so far about the Longhorn Network created by Texas an ESPN has centered around whether or not it's a problem for the Big XIIish Conference and its members institutions. Which is understandable. The Big XIIish stands on the verge of collapse, and the Longhorn Network has become one of Texas A&M's main exhibits in the court of public opinion as it argues why it needs to flee the increasingly Austin-centric conference.

But the Longhorn Network is not just an issue for the Big XIIish. (Assuming it takes care of minor details like getting a cable distributor and making money.) It is an issue for college football. And it will have profoundly negative effects on the sport we all love, particularly if the idea takes hold and moves beyond the Longhorns.

And those issues will present themselves whether the Aggies bolt for the SEC or remain in the Big XIIish for decades. In short, a university-specific network isn't just unsustainable for any single conference, it is unsustainable for college football as we know it. And that's why it has to be stopped.

Star-divide

To get an idea about the fundamental reordering of the college football business that the Longhorn Network could bring about, think of conferences as a kind of faucet that controls the flow of money into college football. No matter how much water is coming and no matter how quickly -- and money has been flowing into college football at a fast and furious rate over the last several years -- a faucet directs the flow of water in an orderly way. Now, ever seen what happens when you knock a faucet off of a sink or bathtub? Water goes everywhere, which is kind of fun to watch, until you realize that it's making a huge mess that someone is going to have to clean up. The Longhorn Network threatens to knock off all of the faucets controlling the flow of money into college football.

There are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 teams in America that can support a 24-hour network (assuming that Texas proves it can), with the best bets being Alabama, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Southern Cal. Take those nine and the possibility that programs like Georgia, Florida State, LSU, Tennessee and maybe a basketball powerhouse like North Carolina could make ends meet, and you might be able to get to 15. (I have my doubts about almost anyone beyond my original nine for a variety of reasons, but we'll go with the higher estimate for now.)

You might as well take the other 105 programs in the Football Bowl Subdivision and split them into another college football subdivision. Because for at least several years and probably for the foreseeable future, they will have no chance of catching up.

Think about it. The Longhorn Network -- and successors like the Crimson Tide Channel and the Irish Network -- means an extra $15 million for each of those 15 schools a year, $15 million annually that can be poured into facilities, recruiting and coaching contracts. Not only that, but recruits can be sold on the idea of absolute certainty that every one of their games will be nationally televised and there is a channel devoted to their every move. That's an intoxicating brew for an 18-year-old who already has legendary coaches lined up around the block to tell the player how important he is to a nationally recognized university's football team.

That's different than something like the Big Ten Network. Whatever you want to say about the B1G's television partnership, it divides the money evenly. And while some of the rights that form the basis for the B1G Network and would form the basis for individual team networks are retained by individual schools in some conferences, like the SEC, no one has ever seriously considered the kind of gargantuan deal that Texas got in the LHN or placing the marketing muscle of ESPN behind it.

And when ESPN gets involved, there are all kinds of questions about conflicts of interest at play. I'm generally not a media conspiracy theorist, in part because I know from personal experience that it's almost impossible for media types to organize anything more complicated than lunch, but I put hardly any stock into any report coming out of Bristol about the Texas A&M expansion story. Why would you? The conflicts of interests are almost hard to catalog. ESPN has an economic interest in making sure that Texas isn't negatively portrayed in relation to the story, it has a contract with the Big XIIish that would likely lose value if the Aggies bolted and it has a contract with the SEC that will have to be renegotiated at a far costlier rate if ESPN doesn't want to watch one of its more valuable assets sign with Fox or NBC or anyone trying to get more involved in the college football ratings sweepstakes.

Now, imagine a world where ESPN has a stable of teams with individual contracts, and even more incentives to choose winners and losers. If it sounds a little Orwellian, that's probably because it is.

- - -

Some will counter that I'm arguing against something that is, to an extent, already in place. College football already has rich programs and poor programs. But this would be further stratifying the upper class, essentially creating a class of ultrawealthy programs that would consist of a little more than 10 percent of the current FBS and an even smaller share of NCAA football programs. That's capitalism run amok, the kind of free-market zealotry that we've discussed before in relation to the amateurism debate.

Eventually, some programs would be able to attempt to catch up. Middle-class programs like Arkansas and South Carolina in the SEC or specialty programs like Louisville in the Big East would be able to create online "networks" that could provide a smaller revenue stream for fan bases that probably number in the low hundreds of thousands. But these would be a pittance compared to what the bigger-dollar schools would be raking in with their networks. And already-strapped programs like Iowa State or even Boise State would have few fans willing to pay even a nominal monthly fee to subscribe to those networks. Many of them would be wiped out or forced to realign themselves into a different subdivision.

And even if Texas is the only program that ever sets up its own network -- isn't that worse, in a way? Isn't that now saying that there is one special program in the country that gets the benefits of having a megadeal with ESPN, and the rest of us just have to live with it?

It's not that Texas is evil for cutting its deal with ESPN -- I don't know of a university that would turn down $15 million a year and its own channel, regardless of what you might hear from presidents of institutions who just haven't thought of it yet. And it's certainly not that we need a "commissioner" of college football, because the arbitrary decision-making of pro commissioners has made it clear that a commissioner model has its own problems. (Besides, what the heck is Mark Emmert doing if not looking out for the interests of the game?)

It's simply that the NCAA needs to do what it is supposed to do in the first place -- lead, and look out for the interests of all of its members institutions. Cutting off access to high-school games as part of an effort to decrease the competitive problems the LHN might represent is a step in the right direction, but it's not going to fix the problem. For once, the NCAA might have to show a little spine, and rally the majority of its member institutions that might be ill-served by the LHN and its successors to find some way to bury the idea once and for all. Yeah, I know. I'm not holding my breath, either.

So, the only hope that the fans of the 105-110 programs who wouldn't be able to set up their own network can do is wait and hope that the Longhorn Network fails. Or dread the prospect of becoming second-class citizens in DeLoss Dodds' brave new world.

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IMO, relatively soon, nearly every big-time college sports program will have their own networks. You know, $9.99 a year for a subscription to watch from your cable/satellite provider.

Editor at Alligator Army - The Florida Gators Blog
The Florida Gators - The most despised team in all of college football - Which is fantastic.

by FlaGators on Aug 22, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions  

I disagree

In 95% of cases (including every sec school), I think you stand to make far more money from a straight up conference network. The article mentions Alabama. It’s a medium to small state population wise. They stand to gain more money and exposure by being in an easily accessible SEC network. Nobody in Ohio is gonna push for their cable company to add the bama network. But they might for an sec network (i wish I had the big 10 network and I hate the big 10). Even of they didn’t, you’re able to catch more market than you would with just the bama network.

by Mark Mandingo on Aug 22, 2011 10:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Texas (per the guys at BON) say they don’t need the money either.

I have the Big 10 Network and I haven’t watched one second of it. But DirecTV puts it on there. Actually, I did watch it last football season for about a minute to see if I got it. But haven’t looked at the channel since early last September.

I’m just saying though, that that is how I see it down the road. I could be wrong. But once someone does it, everybody does it. It is an arms race. Nobody is going to want to be left behind. Especially if Texas makes a lot of money.

Editor at Alligator Army - The Florida Gators Blog
The Florida Gators - The most despised team in all of college football - Which is fantastic.

by FlaGators on Aug 22, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

you might be right

I suppose. And the following isn’t an argument against your point, I’m just stating this as an opinion: most of the people at BON think they could leave the ncaa and still be successful.

by Mark Mandingo on Aug 22, 2011 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Very true.

Editor at Alligator Army - The Florida Gators Blog
The Florida Gators - The most despised team in all of college football - Which is fantastic.

by FlaGators on Aug 22, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you’re underestimating how difficult it is to fund a network and make a profit. I remember reading in the mid-1990s that the Discovery Channel needed to raise in the neighborhood of $30 million to start up a basic cable channel back then. The cost for an upper-tier cable channel now is probably in the same ballpark.

Now add in the operations costs and the need for both the TV partner and the university to make a profit on this. You probably need a subscriber base of several hundred thousand, at least, to make the idea viable, and most schools just can’t provide that.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Aug 22, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

You really don’t think that programs like Florida, USC, Michigan, Ohio State…etc could find the money to start a network in the future?

Editor at Alligator Army - The Florida Gators Blog
The Florida Gators - The most despised team in all of college football - Which is fantastic.

by FlaGators on Aug 22, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

But only those. That’s the reason that it raises a serious question about the stratification of college football.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Aug 22, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree.

Editor at Alligator Army - The Florida Gators Blog
The Florida Gators - The most despised team in all of college football - Which is fantastic.

by FlaGators on Aug 22, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just don't see it....

Even if Bama and Florida and some others could make some money doing their own network I think they could make a lot more in a conference network.

Texas probably has the best shot other than Notre Dame out there to pull off its own network because of the size of the state, the alumni base, and the national appeal. That is assuming, of course, that it even works. The contracts are signed right now, but there is no guarantee that this will even be that profitable.

There is also the damage that the LHN is doing to the Big 12. Do you think the other big powers are going to risk breaking up their conference just to have their own TV rights?

This also goes back to conference by-laws. Teams in the SEC, for example, can’t just sign a contract for their own network tomorrow if the offer came along. The SEC would have to change its rules and I highly doubt that most members would vote to allow that.

by AllTideUp on Aug 22, 2011 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am with you

The LHN has not even picked up a single carrier in the state of Texas or anywhere else for that matter.

The only network that has shown to be a success at this point is the BTN. The BTN though has Fox as a co owner which helped get them on Direct TV since its the same parent company. A footprint of about 68 million people. As well as 3 of the biggest brands (before adding a 4th with Nebraska) in the sport and probably the biggest single game in the sport. Even with all of this the schools are only making about 3 million a year. And these are the schools that make up the list for most living alumni.

ESPN massively over paid for the LHN. Every one at Texas thought they would get between 2 to 4 million for the channel. The only thing I can think of is ESPN paid such a high premium as a poison pill against Texas going to either the Pac 10 or Big 10 when they would have to pony up more money overall than with Texas independent or in the Big 12. That is the only way that kind of bid makes sense for what ESPN received in return.

I really don’t see any school save ND that anyone would be stupid enough to make this kind of bid for again. UF is not a threat to leave the SEC any time soon so why would anyone overbid on their 3rd tier rights?

by TheJim on Aug 23, 2011 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

what is really interesting about all this

is how closely it mirrors the debate over television royalties prompted by the CFA in the 1970s. that association is remembered as the monopoly buster for television revenues but it’s original intent was to separate the major football powers into an elite division that would absorb the bulk of tv money for itself.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1124798/index.htm
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1208/is_n26_v221/ai_19563224/

Remember the Rose Bowl: The Story of the Alabama Crimson Tide & the Grandaddy of Them All

by kleph on Aug 22, 2011 10:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Doesn't BYU have their own network as well?

How it will support itself if so, I do not know.

by deep blue on Aug 22, 2011 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

they do...kinda

It’s an overall BYU network which is in effect a default Mormon network. They have other programs as well as sports. And the goal is probably more evangelical (as in spreading the word, not the modern conservative definition of the word) so I don’t think its about money.

by Mark Mandingo on Aug 22, 2011 11:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah, the BYU Mormon Network has been around for a while now. But yeah, I don’t think they care about the money for one second.

Editor at Alligator Army - The Florida Gators Blog
The Florida Gators - The most despised team in all of college football - Which is fantastic.

by FlaGators on Aug 22, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Add on

The BYU channel subscriber rate is no more than .05. I could not find exact numbers but would guess somewhere in the .60 to .70 a year range if not even less or about maybe 20 million total revenue so on the profit side they are probably at maybe a couple million. They might get a small bump but it will be a small bump if their ratings move with sports.

by TheJim on Aug 23, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very well written article. Thanks.

by ambivalent on Aug 22, 2011 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Penn State?
with the best bets being Alabama, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Southern Cal. Take those nine and the possibility that programs like Georgia, Florida State, LSU, Tennessee and maybe a basketball powerhouse like North Carolina

My hatred for Purdue is so great that no mortal human can detect its existence.

by HawksNation on Aug 22, 2011 1:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe

I think I would put them more in the possible category than the certainty

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Aug 22, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

IMHO

Texas and tOSU are the only two that could have their own network and have it be sustainable.

I arrive at this conclusion with the simple size of fish in size of pond analysis. Ohio and Texas are huge ponds, and unquestionably the biggest fish.

Tennessee is similarly a big fish, but in too small of a pond.

UGA and UF fail the big fish test. Hear me out. Do those two schools have essentially full support from their entire state? No. No. And with UGA it isn’t even a close call with ATL being such an SEC melting pot.

Alabama has a fish that is almost it’s own size. And their pond isn’t big enough. A bama network would go over like led zeppelin.

Michigan, nope.

Penn State, nope. Sorry fellas, but it’s just too sunny in Philadelphia.

And I think that covers it. Also, all of the sec schools know better than to try to go such a route. I made this point in a below post.

USC might have the money to start a network, but then that network would HEMORRHAGE money.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Aug 26, 2011 5:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

"It's not that Texas is evil for cutting its deal with ESPN"

I really hate this line of reasoning. There are plenty of logical reasons why Texas could have turned down the offer from ESPN, the biggest being that every other conference that has chosen to go the conference network route has seen long term benefits in terms of money, conference stability and conference prestige. Texas instead chose to go the route that exacerbated the problems in the Big XII and created a situation where even their biggest rivals don’t want to be around them anymore. Are they evil? Well, no, but other iterations of the argument use terms like “blameless”. That’s just not true. Texas absolutely is to blame for what’s happening in the Big XII. The other conferences who are lusting after Texas’ money need to get it through their heads that the LHN is just a symptom of the problem. The problem is Texas itself.

by Gaknar on Aug 22, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions   4 recs

I don't think that is fair at all

Texas has become everyones favorite punching bag. Texas has made it clear for years now that they wanted to start the LHN. Its not Texas fault that they where offered about 7 times what they expected or anyone else expected to start up the channel. The rest of the break up of the Big 12 can’t be laid at their feet either.

Colorado wanted to leave for the Pac 10 for a while for a number of reasons. SoCal is their big recruiting ground, a large number of their alumni end up in California and Washington, they needed money so the thought was the alumni would donate more if they could see them play.

Nebraska left first to move to the better neighborhood (Big Ten has an international academic reputation next to only the Ivy League). Beyond that they where pissed that the power moved south to the state of Texas but you know how all those votes went 11-1 against Nebraska so its not like it was Texas alone but TAM and everyone else.

Mizzou wanted to leave because they wanted to move to the better neighborhood. They where pissed because they always got passed over. Iowa St for example was picked for a bowl over Mizzou despite having a worse record. There was something with soccer.

by TheJim on Aug 23, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay

Care to offer up a non-Texas reason why A&M is, not walking, running to the sec.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Aug 26, 2011 5:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Texas was second

The genesis of the LHN might very well have been teh next step after Notre Dame’s NBC tv deal. Yes, this is all encompassing but NBC/ND was the first deal (to my recollection) done by a network and a university that dumped piles of cash on one school and one school only.

Personally, I believe the A&M types that point to this as the straw that broke their backs. And the timing was just incredibly bad. The Big12-2 hadn’t even fully recovered from the NU/CU defections and here goes Texas doing something that makes them a ton of money (potentially) and pisses off pretty much everybody else that stuck around and decided to keep the Big12-2 alive. Yes, this might not have been a deal that Texas could have done at any other time, but when it all falls in on them and Texas finds itself just another member of a Super Conference having to fight for the one or two spots that the coming playoff system will allot to its conference…and that this day comes much sooner than it otherwise might have…Texas will have to have a long sober look in the mirror and wonder what they wrought.

by Phocion on Aug 22, 2011 6:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I would agree with a lot of what you say

but while you and I may not have devoted a lot of time thinking about what the coming of this network, the aggies should have. I don’t know if very many people saw the high school football thing coming, but it was pretty obvious that Texas was going to start a network. That was almost the basis of the big 12’s survival last year. The aggies didn’t really think it through and neither did I. But I don’t live in Texas either.

by Mark Mandingo on Aug 22, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah...

If I remember correctly, the only reason Texas balked at going to the PAC 10 and taking a bunch of schools with them was because there they could not have their own network. The PAC 10(now 12) was planning on starting their own network.

So in a way, the only reason Armageddon didn’t happen last year was because of the LHN and the reason it may still happen is because of the LHN. Oh the irony….

by AllTideUp on Aug 23, 2011 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

True enough

But one wonders about how seriously the others took that talk…and even if they took it seriously, if they could have imagined this timeline.

But, yeah, the clues were there.

by Phocion on Aug 23, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

ND has had that deal for a whiiile

I wonder how much money NBC loses on that deal. ND hasn’t exactly been a Nielsen juggernaut for some time.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Aug 26, 2011 5:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Good post...

and furthermore why can’t ESPN see that this will likely happen ruining the product that has been very good for their network—just as Texas can’t see this will likely happen. I would hate to see 10 to fifteen teams separate themselves from the pack by an ever increasing widening gap even if LSU could get in that group.

I guess I would focus more on the NFL if that happened and I love college football.

Reporter: What would you say a Greg Studrawa offense is like? Stud:

"Attack and be very physical…fly around…attacking, come after you and come after you and come after you…." Me: I love this answer.

GET TO THE RIM HEAT (and SKY)! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on Aug 23, 2011 2:44 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Let's hope the lhn tanks

Reporter: What would you say a Greg Studrawa offense is like? Stud:

"Attack and be very physical…fly around…attacking, come after you and come after you and come after you…." Me: I love this answer.

GET TO THE RIM HEAT (and SKY)! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on Aug 23, 2011 2:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

That’s what I’m hoping for, but I have no doubt that ESPN/UT will pull every trick they can imagine to make it succeed. The failure of that network would be major egg in their faces.

by ambivalent on Aug 23, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I had a funny realization about the LHN

I’m a Northwestern fan living in Virginia. For an extra $7 a month, I can get every Northwestern football game (and nearly every NU basketball game). However, there is no amount of money that I can pay to get the Texas-Rice game. In some sense, Texas has hurt their exposure out-of-state.

Outside of that, I doubt that those other large programs are going to take the Texas route. Each one of them could make more money by going rogue and taking all of their rights away from their conference, a point which has been true for 30 years. None of them except Texas has done so. (ND might setup a de facto network with Vs, but that wouldn’t be any different than UF has with Sun Sports)

by nuftw on Aug 23, 2011 9:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Texas

Needs to learn to play nice. They are self-destructively arrogant. Assume Florida could pull off it’s own network (I’m more skeptical than many of you on that point, but we’ll assume). Would it go through with it if other schools objected? Would Mike Slive allow it (I’m actually not sure if he would have the power to prevent, but assume he does)? No. And no are the simple answers. No SEC would risk the continued viability if the league as a whole, because no school is that big, and no school will ever be that big. And what I mean by that is that no SEC school will ever take the air of superiority approach — which apparently just permeates all through Austin — vis a vis it’s sister schools because every school needs the sec as much or more as the sec needs that school.

History, tradition, and parity prevent any institution from acting in a manner inconsistent with the greater good. The big 12 lacks these elements and Texas will continue to bully until it finds itself with no more buddies.

No homer.

by kidbourbon on Aug 26, 2011 5:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

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