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Three Things We Know and Don't Know About Tennessee // SEC 2011

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

1. Who everybody is.

It's not just about continuity in the coaching staff, though that is a big thing for the program as a whole. The starting lineup is littered with familiar faces from last year. Perhaps the best way to illustrate the point is to highlight the positions where there are the fewest returning starters. The Vols lost their top two wide receivers from last year, but stepping in their places are Justin Hunter and Da'Rick Rogers, guys who saw action in 13 and 11 games last year, respectively. The defensive line has only one returning starter in Malik Jackson, but new starters Jacques Smith and Corey Miller appeared in every game last year. Smith particularly had an impact with a pair of sacks and five tackles for loss. For the first time in a few years, Tennessee should look fairly familiar this fall.

2. The O-line should be better.

If you're planning out a season, you do not want your offensive line learning its third different blocking scheme in three years. You definitely don't want to have to replace all five starters and have just three starts combined among the new replacements. That's what Tennessee had to deal with last year, though, and it definitely showed. Adjusted for sacks, Tennessee averaged 131.46 rushing yards per game, which was about 27 yards behind 11th place Georgia in the conference. Speaking of sacks, Tennessee quarterbacks were sacked a remarkable 41 times, six more than 11th place Vanderbilt (though in one more game than the Commodores played in). The unit returns four starters this year, and it has nowhere to go but up. That means good things for Tauren Poole, who rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season and hit the century mark six times anyway last year.

3. This is Tyler Bray's team now.

Bray came in as a heralded recruit from California, representing the future of the program. He was supposed to sit behind the older Matt Simms and learn for a while, but like his older brother at Texas, Simms couldn't hold on to the starting job. Bray beat out Simms midway through the season, compiling a more-than-respectable 142.7 passing efficiency score on the year. He never posted a mark below 134 in the games he started, which is outstanding for a freshman. He'll need to get his completion percentage up and interception rate down, but that should come with experience. There's no doubt he's the man at the most important position on the field, and he'll need to grow into a leader for Tennessee to maximize its potential.

Star-divide

THREE THINGS WE DON'T KNOW

1. What to expect at linebacker.

Tennessee lost two of its three starting linebackers from last season, including the unlikely leader of the group in the undersized former walk on Nick Reveiz. Herman Lathers is the one guy back from last year, and he was supposed to anchor the unit. Unfortunately, he missed spring with a shoulder injury and recently fractured his ankle. He won't be ready for the beginning of the season, meaning the Vols essentially will have three question marks backing up the D-line to start the season. Perhaps the best way to highlight that fact is to point out the the guy in line to start at middle linebacker, Austin Johnson, was a fullback as recently as 2009. The Vols have to hope Lathers can get healthy sooner than later, and they might end up playing a true freshman or two in the rotation.

2. What to expect from the whole defense, actually.

When Derek Dooley hired Justin Wilcox from Boise State to run Tennessee's defense, it raised some eyebrows. It made sense that Dooley would think of him, as BSU's defense dominated the WAC in the years that Dooley was at Louisiana Tech. The defense was pretty middle-of-the-road in Wilcox's first year. Name a defensive stat, and UT was no better than sixth in conference play except for passing efficiency defense and red zone score percentage. With a young defensive line and the aforementioned issues at linebacker, it might be tough for Tennessee's defense to be above average even if Wilcox is a genius. That's especially true if Janzen Jackson doesn't make it back to campus for this fall. If Tennessee can noticeably improve over last year, Wilcox will have earned every last dollar of his paycheck.

3. How they'll handle adversity again.

Last year was not an easy year for the Vols. They came into the season short handed, were 2-6 through October (with the wins coming against UT-Martin and in overtime over UAB), and lost to every bowl team they faced except Kentucky. They also had to deal with a crazy ending to the LSU game (their fault) and the bowl versus North Carolina (not their fault). Hope invariably springs forth in September, but a 3-5 start is not to difficult to imagine. Getting Arkansas instead of Ole Miss in November hurts, and they could easily be in the same place as last year needing wins over Vandy and Kentucky just to get bowl eligible. It's one thing for Tennessee to go through that once. Can they deal with it twice in a row? Can they make another November rebound? Will the fans remain patient with Dooley? The program is almost certainly going to face these questions, and I'll be interested to see how they're answered.

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re: defense

I think one place where we can expect series improvement is the pass defense, particularly the two minute defense. Subtracting the two minute defense, UT held UNC to 4.6 yards per play in the Music City Bowl, and a jaw-dropping 3.0 yards per play in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters. Not surprisingly, outside of the two minute drill, UNC only scored 10 points in the game, 7 of which were on the opening possession.

The problem is that UNC’s two-minute drill put up 13.2 yards per play and 10 points in two opportunities. The explanation for this is that, while UT’s starting secondary was semi-passable, there was no depth at all. By the end of the season, with Art Evans suspended and a few guys banged up, the Vols did not have a dime package. There just weren’t enough scholarship DBs on the roster to field one. No wonder they had trouble when the opposition went into a two-minute offense.

To remedy this, UT signed EIGHT defensive backs in the 2011 recruiting class, including two JuCos (one of which, Byron Moore, transferred from USCw and was expected to start immediately pretty much wherever he signed). In addition, the Vols return everybody who got significant playing time last year. So Prentiss Waggner, who had three pick sixes last year and earned 2nd team all SEC, may well be the nickel back this year. Also note that Wilcox ran a lot of 4-2-5 at Boise State, and you mentioned the linebacker problems.

Basically, the DB situation is a clone of the O-line situation (started 2 Fr and 3 So over the course of the year), plus JuCo help. Those are the two places where we expect serious improvement.

And if Janzen doesn’t return, I take it all back.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Go Bolts! Out West, go Preds! Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Jun 19, 2011 10:22 PM EDT reply actions  

As I mentioned above, passing efficiency defense was one area where Tennessee was quite good last year. UT was fourth in the league overall, and it improved to third in the rankings if you limit things to just conference play.

If it felt like the pass defense wasn’t that good, it would be because teams just threw it a lot against the Vols. Opponents registered rushing plays just 51.3% of the time against the Vols, the fourth-lowest opponent run-pass ratio in the SEC for last year. Tennessee was also one of five SEC defenses to have more interceptions than TD passes allowed.

Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2

by Year2 on Jun 20, 2011 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Since I watched every UT game obsessively last year

I think I can give a little detail than the overall stats.

The pass defense was not good early in the year. I don’t know what the stats looked like, because LSU’s passing offense was bad enough that it might’ve balanced them out, but the pass defense was not good. Florida was 6/9 on 3rd and 8+ against Tennessee (and that includes a failed conversion on a botched snap), compared to 2/5 on 3rd and 1-7. I didn’t watch all of Florida’s games last year, but I imagine Brantley didn’t typically perform that well in obvious passing situations. LSU’s passing offense was bad, but they still led a game-winning drive in the final minutes. Georgia beat us in every facet. Julio Jones had a career day against us.

Then Brent Brewer (Fr) returned from a fall injury, started at strong safety, and moved Waggner to corner. Immediately, we held down Alshon Jeffrey (although Secretariat destroyed us), handed Jeremiah Masoli his worst performance of the year (Ole Miss QBs combined to go 10/24 for 99 yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs), and played average games against Vandy and Kentucky. I wouldn’t be shocked if that Ole Miss game skews the overall PED statistics.

The thing is, as the starting secondary got better, depth was getting worse, for reasons mentioned in my original comment. So even though UT’s base pass defense was fairly good to close out the season, it was still abysmal in obvious passing situations, for want of a dime package.

The basic point is that uneven performance held up by a couple great games (particularly the Ole Miss game) statistically disguises the fact that three of the biggest defensive failures of the season (3rd and long against Florida, Julio Jones, two minute defense against North Carolina) were the fault of the pass defense. And even if the numbers don’t get better (Ole Miss isn’t on the schedule), the secondary should become much more consistent and be able to handle obvious passing situations. Because obvious passing situations are a small subset of a game, that might have more effect on the final scores than it does the PED ratings.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Go Bolts! Out West, go Preds! Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Jun 20, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Where we diverge is that I’m looking at everything as a whole, while you’re looking at only important instances. Two different approaches can often lead to different conclusions.

Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2

by Year2 on Jun 20, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

I understand

I’m not really disagreeing with you, just trying to provide a more complete picture. I agree that the ranking may not change much, but I do think the unit will be better prepared for those important instances.

Heel for school, Vol for life!

Go Bolts! Out West, go Preds! Southern hockey solidarity!

by Incipient_Senescence on Jun 20, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

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