ATB Final Weekend: Florida, Alabama Take Division Leads Into Friday
Every game's importance is magnified this weekend, so we'll wrap up each day's action briefly and take a look at what it means for the standings. Speaking of standings:
| SEC EAST | SEC WEST | ||||||
| Overall | SEC | GB | Overall | SEC | GB | ||
| Florida |
40-14 | 21-7 | -- | Alabama | 32-22 | 14-14 | -- |
| South Carolina |
42-12 | 20-8 | 1.0 | Mississippi State | 33-20 | 13-15 | 1.0 |
| Vanderbilt |
42-9 | 20-8 | 1.0 | Auburn | 28-26 | 13-15 | 1.0 |
| Georgia | 28-26 | 16-12 | 5.0 | Ole Miss |
30-23 | 13-15 | 1.0 |
| x-Kentucky | 24-29 | 7-21 | 14.0 | Arkansas |
34-18 | 13-15 | 1.0 |
| x-Tennessee | 24-28 | 6-22 | 15.0 | LSU | 35-19 | 12-16 | 2.0 |
NOTE: Teams in gray are eliminated from division contention. Teams with "x" are eliminated from Hoover.
It's useful to note that, while I'm confident that everything in the above chart is likely right, things are going to get dicey as the weekend goes along. That's because the West is so convoluted that the conference is actually refusing to game out scenarios for what each team needs to do to head to Hoover and where they would be seeded.
A quick round-up of the action follows the jump.
Florida 9, Kentucky 6
Five errors is the most significant stat in the showdown between Florida, your new division leaders, and the Wildcats, who might soon end up last in the SEC East, though it's hard to believe that Tennessee will give up that distinction without a fight. The uptake is that Florida is the only SEC East team that controls its own destiny heading into the final two days of the season; the Gators are on track for their second regular-season conference championship in as many years.
Alabama 2, South Carolina 1
Both teams broke a tie with this series, though one would just as soon still be mired in a deadlock. Alabama now leads the SEC West, which either means that order is about to be restored or the whole thing is about to dissolve into some sort of supernova of mediocrity, with the smart money being on the latter. Michael Roth pitched well for the Gamecocks, but Nathan Kilcrease pitched better for the Tide. The two runs allowed by Roth in the first inning were too much, and even with South Carolina's pitching staff you have to produce more than a run of offense to win most games.
Georgia 5, Vanderbilt 4
The Dawgs' Michael Palazzone all but ended the Commodores hopes for the East by pitching nine workman-like innings for the complete game win in Athens. After a rough start, Palazzone pitched six scoreless frames to close out the game. The Dores now needed to sweep the remaining two games, have South Carolina drop at least one and have Florida lose both remaining games against Kentucky. That's not impossible, but it's also not exactly on the right side of likely. Georgia has locked up a trip to Hoover and the No. 5 seed in the tournament.
Mississippi 2, Arkansas 1
Michael Roth was not the only one with the right to gripe about his offensive support. D.J. Baxendale pitched 8.1 and gave up just two runs while striking out eight. That generally should not mean you end up with a loss. (Now, can we all agree that the loss is the dumbest statistic in sports?) Then again, as a pitcher for one of the worst offensive teams left in the tournament, Baxendale is probably used to that kind of game. The Rebels win means that five SEC West teams are now within a game of each other.
LSU 17, Mississippi State 1
There are only two things that need to be said about this game: (1) Mikie Mahtook (3-4, HR, BB, 3 runs, 4 RBIs); and (2) This is the box score summary for the LSU half of the sixth inning:
Ross singled to left field. Jones, J. walked; Ross advanced to second. D. Jones to p for Statz. Watkins struck out swinging. Rhymes walked; Jones, J. advanced to second; Ross advanced to third. Katz doubled to left field, 3 RBI, advanced to third on the throw; Rhymes scored; Jones, J. scored; Ross scored. Mahtook walked; Katz scored on a wild pitch. Busby to p for D. Jones. Mahtook advanced to second on a wild pitch. Nola walked. Hanover walked; Nola advanced to second; Mahtook advanced to third. Edward doubled to left center, 3 RBI; Hanover scored; Nola scored; Mahtook scored. Norris to p for Busby. Ross doubled to center field, RBI; Edward scored. Jones, J. homered to left field, 2 RBI; Ross scored. Watkins grounded out to 3b. Rhymes doubled to left field. Katz popped up to ss. 10 runs, 6 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB
Tennessee 5, Auburn 2
Congratulations, Tigers; you managed to score just two runs against the worst pitching staff in the SEC. But not all is lost; you also gave up five runs on thirteen hits to the worst offense in the league. It's now time to say that if the Tigers don't won the West, they have no one to blame but themselves.
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There are only three things that need to be said about this game:
Kevin Gausman: 1 run on 4 hits, 7Ks 1BB in 7.2 IP
If he is on and our bats are ok, woe to the first round opponent in Hoover or the NCAA.
Yeah, Florida and South Carolina are real worried
I’m excited by Gausman’s outing and the recent quality play of the Tigers, but let’s not get crazy here.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur
oh I'm not
we have to get out of this weekend first. I’m sure nights like last night are just that ray of sunshine before some huge wave comes over and swamps the boat a la Perfect Storm to make a tortuous analogy.
Yeah, this season has been a nightmare
Just making the NCAA’s would be a happy ending. No one wants to hear an LSU fan whne about their baseball team, but this year has been frustrating to say the least. Hopefully, Florida, Vandy, or USC (again) can carry the SEC banner in Omaha. Because it probably won’t be us.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur
I've had a feeling all season
that this is finally Vandy’s year. They seem to have the hitting to go with the pitching they’ve always had.
Florida in driver's seat
As I predicted earlier in the season (and for which I was roundly excoriated), Florida looks like it will win its second consecutive SEC Title. Florida could drop one of two against UK and still tie for a share of the title. I think it is very unlikely Florida will lose the next two.
All this said, the #3 seed in the SEC tournament, might be in the best spot from a match-up perspective, given the match-ups that could occur. Even better than the #1 seed. It looks like either Florida or USCe will vie for the #1 seed
I think Florida, USCe and Vandy will all get an opportunity to host the super regional. Which might mean all three make it to the World Series.
I've been pondering some scenarios after Ole Miss' win last night.
1-What if the Rebels took the series on the road against Arkansas, but did not get into the tourney due to tie breakers. Would the committee take the Rebels?
2-What if Auburn and UGA don’t have winning records and don’t make the tourney? Would the committee smile on the Ole MIss and LSUs and let us in in their place?
Red Cup Rebellion -- Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
by BrianWalker'sElbow on May 20, 2011 9:47 AM EDT reply actions
Don't know about OM...
… but I feel pretty confident about LSU’s chances of we win one more game and miss the SEC tourney. LSU’s got an RPI of 25, that sweep of Fullerton in their pocket, and given how tight the West is, I don’t think it’s that detrimental to finish 5th or 6h. Seriously, what’s gonna be the difference between 1st and 6th? Three games? Two?
That’s obviously not my preferred scenario, I want a sweep to feel really confident, but LSU getting a sweep on the road seems like a fantasy this season.
Fake Pundit. Real Fan.
And The Valley Shook!
I self-indulgently tweet @ATVSPoseur

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