2011 NCAA Tournament Picks: Narrowing the Field of Title Contenders
by Year2 on Mar 15, 2011 1:07 PM EDT
in SEC Basketball
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I gave a huge data dump yesterday that pertains to picking every level of the bracket. Today, let's just focus on the national title contenders, and again, the trends discussed below only apply to the 64-team bracket era of 1985-present.
Setting the Stage
The initial pool of potential champions contains the teams of the first three lines of the bracket. Only three times has anyone seeded worse than a 3-seed won the whole thing. I was tempted to exclude 3-seeds themselves, as they've won just three tournaments, but two of those three have happened in the last ten years. They're in play.
Initial Pool: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida, San Diego State, Syracuse, Purdue, BYU, UConn
First Cut: Mid-Majors
Only two mid-majors have won the national championship: Louisville in 1986, and UNLV in 1990. I'm not even sure UL counted as one at the time, though. I don't think the Metro Conference was considered a major one back then, but it was Denny Crum's second national title.
Long story short: mid-majors aren't good bets to win the national title despite Butler's close call last year.
Cut: San Diego State, BYU
Remaining: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida, Syracuse, Purdue, UConn
Second Cut: Coaches with no Final Four experience
As Jon Solomon pointed out, 10 of the last 11 and 20 of the 26 total champions had coaches who had been to the Final Four prior to winning it all. It's not common for coaches to win it all the first time they break through to the national semifinals.
Cut: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, BYU (again), Purdue
Remaining: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Florida, Syracuse, UConn
Third cut: Conference tournament results
No one has won the national title without winning a game in their conference tournament. Also, no one has won the national title after playing more than three days in a row in their conference tournament.
Cut: Pittsburgh (again), Purdue (again), UConn
Remaining: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Florida, Syracuse
Fourth cut: Non-conference losses
Only three teams have won the national title after absorbing more than two non-conference losses. If you're good enough to win it all, you generally clean up in the non-conference.
Cut: North Carolina, Florida
Remaining: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Syracuse
Conclusion
That's as far as I can take things for now. If you're looking for a reason to eliminate Syracuse, use the fact that only three 3-seeds have ever won it all (though one of them was Syracuse in '03). If you're looking for a reason to eliminate Duke, make it the paucity of repeat champions. Only 1991-92 Duke and 2006-07 Florida have repeated as champions, and the other two champs to even make it to the title game the next year ('94 Arkansas and '97 Kentucky) failed to win it.
As for Ohio State and Kanas, I can't think of a solid reason to cut them at the moment. Those two really are your most likely championship candidates.
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Interesting article.
Unfortunately for me I had Duke, Kansas, and Syracuse losing in the third round.
stuff 'bout stuff.
There’s still time to change. Or just double down on Ohio State.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
Yeah, but if I changed it I'd just feel like I was copying someone else.
I have a system, and it will either work or fail miserably, but at least I’ll feel like I tried on my own.
stuff 'bout stuff.
by silver82blade on Mar 15, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Ohio St
has a really nasty draw. I’d slice them off the list just due to that. Not sure that the paucity of repeat champs is a big deal; plenty of time last year’s champ just isn’t that good this year, and even if they are (I’d guess ~ 50% of the time they’re a 1-3 seed, but it could well be less often), by the time you hit the Elite 8 you’re likely in tossup games from then on out (sometimes you get an easy Elite 8 opponent, but more likely it’s a good one), and there’s usually a decent chance of an upset in the Sweet 16.
So 2 repeat champs out of the last 20 years (and another 2 losing in the Finals) sounds about right to me. Obviously the sample size is limited, but if anything that suggests to me that winning last year slightly boosts your odds to win this year. Presuming I’m right when I guess that only 50% of last year’s winners are 1-3 seeds, that means that 2 out of 10 very good teams who won last year repeated. IMO that’s VERY good odds given the tournament structure.
Pretty close
I looked it up and of the 25 champions since 1985, 16 came back as a 1, 2, or 3-seed the next season.
Eight of them returned as a 1-seed, and those ended up with one each losing in the second round through Final Four, two losing in the championship game, and two repeating as champs. Three underperformed their seeding, one matched it, and four outperformed it. Not bad. Two of the eight were Duke itself, and the results were a repeat title (1992) and a loss in the Sweet 16 (2002).
Among the 16 champs returning as a 1, 2, or 3-seed, six returned to the Final Four the next year while five of them got bounced in the second round. Between the extremes, two each lost in the S16 and E8.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
Put it this way:
13.3% of the champs that returned as 1, 2, or 3-seeds won the national title. 7.4% of all 1, 2, and 3-seeds won the national title.
One in three champs returning as a top-3 seed made the championship game the next year. Four in ten have made the Final Four the next year.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
I always go with one of the underdogs to win it in one of my brackets.
I have San Diego State winning it all. I’ll bet i’m one of the few who has it them winning it all which means i might come out ahead if it happens.
The University of Utah is off to the Pac-12 Conference and will be in the South Division. Hopefully we will get to the first ever Pac-12 Championship Game. Jon " Bones " Jones gets his chance for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title when he faces off against Shogun Rua. Jon Jones will win.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I have them losing to Missouri in the Sweet 16 round.
stuff 'bout stuff.
by silver82blade on Mar 15, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
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