Last year I ran score projections for all of the bowl games, and they worked out pretty well. They were 23-12 straight up and 19-14-2 against the spread. You certainly could do a lot worse. I described the method back when I made my projection for the SEC Championship Game. I compared them to the over/under last year, but they were awful at that. I'm sticking to just scores and point spreads this time. I also did not remove overtime results this year for want of time, so we'll see if that makes much of a difference.
I know that some of these are going to be way off because the method doesn't account for things like coaching changes or motivation and the lack thereof. Teams are going to flop because they just don't care or because a key coach or two took the first bus out of town. The method itself isn't perfect either, but with each year I try to make it better.
I'm putting them up against the point spreads by Yahoo here. They reflect the lines as of the morning of today, December 14. I used the bodog spreads where available and the general consensus of the others where not.
Here goes nothing, and remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.
|New Mexico||Temple vs. Wyoming||Temple -7||Temple 29-13||Temple|
|Famous Idaho Potato||Ohio vs. Utah State||USU -3||Ohio 33-30||Ohio + points|
|New Orleans||SDSU vs. UL-Lafayette||SDSU -4.5||SDSU 33-26||SDSU|
|St. Petersburg||FIU vs. Marshall||FIU -4||FIU 28-17||FIU|
|Poinsettia||TCU vs. LA Tech||TCU -10.5||TCU 32-23||LA Tech + points|
|Las Vegas||Arizona St. vs. Boise St.||BSU -14||BSU 43-23||Boise St.|
|Hawaii||Nevada vs. So. Miss||USM -6||USM 34-26||Southern Miss|
|Independence||Missouri vs. UNC||Missouri -5||Missouri 25-24||UNC + points|
|Little Caesar's||WMU vs. Purdue||Purdue -2||WMU 37-28||Western Michigan|
|Belk||Louisville vs. NCSU||NCSU -3||Louisville 23-20||Louisville + points|
|Military||Toledo vs. Air Force||Toledo -3||Toledo 42-35||Toledo|
|Holiday||Cal vs. Texas||Texas -3||Texas 23-19||Texas|
|Champs Sports||FSU vs. Notre Dame||FSU -3||FSU 25-19||FSU|
|Alamo||Washington vs. Baylor||Baylor -9||Baylor 47-40||UW + points|
|Armed Forces||BYU vs. Tulsa||BYU -3||Tulsa 29-26||Tulsa + points|
|Pinstripe||Rutgers vs. Iowa St.||Rutgers -2||Rutgers 25-16||Rutgers|
|Music City||Miss St. vs. Wake Forest||MSU -7||MSU 26-22||Wake + points|
|Insight||Iowa vs. Oklahoma||OU -14||OU 37-22||Oklahoma|
|Car Care of Texas||Texas A&M vs. Northwestern||A&M -10||A&M 40-29||Texas A&M|
|Sun||Georgia Tech vs. Utah||GT -3.5||GT 25-23||Utah + points|
|Liberty||Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt||Vandy -3||Cincy 26-23||Cincy + points|
|Fight Hunger||Illinois vs. UCLA||Illinois -3||Illinois 24-18||Illinois|
|Chick-fil-A||Virginia vs. Auburn||AU -1.5||Virginia 25-23||Virginia + points|
|TicketCity||Houston vs. Penn St.||Houston -6||Houston 38-18||Houston|
|Outback||Michigan State vs. Georgia||UGA -3.5||MSU 27-22||MSU + points|
|Capital One||Nebraska vs. South Carolina||SC -3||SC 28-22||South Carolina|
|Gator||Ohio State vs. Florida||Florida -2||UF 19.44-19.11||Ohio St. + points|
|Rose||Wisconsin vs. Oregon||Oregon -6||Wisconsin 40-37||Wisconsin + points|
|Fiesta||Stanford vs. Oklahoma St.||OSU -3.5||Stanford 40-38||Stanford + points|
|Sugar||Michigan vs. Virginia Tech||Michigan -3||Michigan 26-16||Michigan|
|Orange||WVU vs. Clemson||Clem -3.5||Clemson 36-34||WVU + points|
|Cotton||Kansas St. vs. Arkansas||Ark -7.5||Arkansas 38-32||K-State + points|
|BBVA Compass||SMU vs. Pittsburgh||Pitt -4.5||Pitt 24-19||Pittsburgh|
|GoDaddy||Arkansas St. vs. NIU||ASU -1.5||ASU 35-30||Arkansas State|
|BCS NCG||Alabama vs. LSU||Pick||LSU 21.86-21.53||LSU|
Green in the "Projection" column indicates a correct pick straight up; green in the "Pick" column indicates a correct pick against the spread. You can guess what red means.