The Second Year Grantham Surge
by Year2 on Nov 29, 2011 10:30 AM EST
in SEC Football
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PrintSecond year surges for head coaches have become common enough that people almost expect them. Coaches like Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer have won national titles in their second seasons; coaches like Pete Carroll, Nick Saban at Alabama and Mark Richt went from middling records to 11+ win seasons. Big time coaches are expected to produce these effects like clockwork, while even lower profile coaches are supposed to have them on some level.
Typically people don't look for them at the coordinator level, but everyone did when it came to Georgia's Todd Grantham. The defense was the reason why UGA began its decline in the second half of the last decade, and if it couldn't be turned around, Richt was probably going to be sent packing. He chose Grantham to be the new leader on that side of the ball, effectively betting his job on the NFL transplant.
Grantham happens to be a 3-4 guy, which meant that there was going to be at least one transitional year from Willie Martinez's 4-3. The Bulldogs hit their nadir record-wise in that transition year, finishing 6-7. The offense wasn't innocent in all of those seven losses, but Grantham really needed to engineer one of those fabled second year surges.
As it turns out, he did. Here is how Georgia's BCS conference opponents (plus Boise State) did against Grantham's crew this season. The points are offensive points only; I did not include special teams scores, defensive scores, or safeties. Also, I did not include any stats accumulated against I-AA opponents.
| Opponent | Points | PPG | Diff. | Yards | YPG | Diff. |
| Boise State | 35 | 41.82 | -6.82 | 390 | 477.6 | -87.6 |
| South Carolina | 24 | 24.62 | -0.62 | 395 | 366.5 | 28.5 |
| Ole Miss | 7 | 12.55 | -5.55 | 183 | 277.6 | -94.6 |
| Mississippi State | 3 | 20.73 | -17.73 | 213 | 335.5 | -122.5 |
| Tennessee | 12 | 17.82 | -5.82 | 270 | 323 | -53.0 |
| Vanderbilt | 21 | 22.55 | -1.55 | 349 | 345.8 | 3.2 |
| Florida | 13 | 20.91 | -7.91 | 226 | 323.4 | -97.4 |
| Auburn | 7 | 19.27 | -12.27 | 195 | 320.3 | -125.3 |
| Kentucky | 10 | 13.82 | -3.82 | 142 | 242.9 | -100.9 |
| Georgia Tech | 17 | 31.00 | -14.00 | 355 | 441.2 | -86.2 |
Average Point Differential: -7.61
Average Yard Differential: -73.58
Grantham's crew held every offense below its season average to some extent. He held eight of the ten under their yardage averages as well.
LSU's offense hasn't been the most dynamic in the country, but it can crank it up when it needs to. For Georgia to have a chance to win this Saturday, it will need Grantham's defense to dial up one of its best games. If that unit can do it, given how good its best games have been, Georgia will have a decent shot at pulling off the upset on what amounts to its home turf.
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Second year surges
Good point about Grantham.
Since both my schools, Vanderbilt and Michigan, had better-than-expected seasons with first-year coaches, i can only daydream about what significant improvement in each coach’s second year would mean.
I like that UGA held Vandy and USC below their season averages
…despite both games ending up being shootouts. Ugh, Georgia special teams.
I predict Grantham will be throwing another postgame tantrum
because a defense that feasted on everyone in the SEC not named LSU or Bama will be in for a looooooooooonnnng day trying to stop LSU’s ground game.
nemo me impune lacessit
… a ground game that feasted on everyone in the SEC not named Georgia or South Carolina.
by Hobnail_Boot on Nov 29, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
"Another postgame tantrum"? Seriously?
Unless Les Miles intends to coach his players to play dirty, then call out opposing players for objecting to his players’ dirty play, no, I don’t expect Todd Grantham will be expressing his justified outrage a second time. Since Coach Miles isn’t that kind of coach, Coach Grantham should be fine, win or lose, as he has been after 24 of the 25 games during which he has served as Georgia’s defensive coordinator.
That was seriously weak, LSUJOSHUA.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
stop being so whiny and go overbill another client whilst you write really overly long essays
then take some mydol and calm down.
But if you really want to stay angry, go be angry at your blogmate Blutarsky for being dumb as dirt for seriously comparing a football schedule to the Bataan Death March. That’s weak Mr. Verbose.
nemo me impune lacessit
Incidentally, the Georgia defense that feasted on everyone in the SEC except Alabama or LSU . . .
. . . feasted on Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, and Tennessee in six of its eight SEC games.
LSU’s defense feasted on those same six teams in six of the Tigers’ eight SEC games.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
I wish you guys would have beat BSU...honestly
I bet if you played them again after UGA found a better groove with Crowell and company the result would be different.
But also took on
Oregon, West Virginia, Arkansas and Alabama. Four of the top 31 offenses in the country.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
I think the point he's trying to make...
…is that the schedules are similar enough (with half of the exact same teams) that the discrepancy in stats is also similar enough. Who’s to say that UGA wouldn’t have had similar numbers against the offenses LSU played had they played them?
Well if we're allowed to bend hypotheticals to fit the argument...
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
And Dan Hawkins went from a middling record to 12 wins in his second year at Boise State. I was following the Rule of Three, not trying to make exhaustive lists.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
...and predictably spit the bit in year three.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Very illustrative....
….and there is a case to be made that 60-odd yards of that SC contest on the Melvin Ingram rumble could also be omitted in the same spirit as your omission of various non-offensive scores. That’d bring the tally to 9 of 10.
Nice post. What I’d pay to see is a similar rundown of Oklahoma’s pass defense in year two of the Willie Martinez Experiment.
"Dorsey Hill thinks when you die you go to Vince Dooley's house. He can't wait." --The Incomparable Lewis Grizzard
by Law Dawg on Nov 29, 2011 3:39 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I did
I considered that a special teams TD as it was on a fake punt, even if it does count as a rushing touchdown.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
By the way
What’s your rate on the Oklahoma study? :)
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
Ugh. Don't remind me.
Were it not for Melvin Ingram, Georgia would be playing LSU for a shot at a rematch in the title game.
Amazingly...
…the only major defensive that Grantham’s defense is not in the upper echelon of the country in is red zone scoring percentage, where they’re an abysmal 100th. Equally amazing is the fact that LSU’s vaunted defense comes in at 111th in the country in that category, giving up scores on almost 91% of their opponents’ red zone chances. Just for some perspective, the average red zone attempts of the bottom 21 teams in the category is 45.6. LSU has had only 21. Georgia, 24.
and by the way...
…the only other teams in the country with 30 or fewer defensive red zone attempts per game are Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan St., Temple, Wisconsin, Vandy, and TCU.
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