Which Quarterback Is Your Heisman Favorite?
by Year2 on Nov 16, 2011 1:00 PM EST
in SEC Football
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Mark Ingram aside, the Heisman Trophy has largely become a quarterbacking award. It will probably go to a quarterback again this year.
While I am sort of fine with that, as quarterback is the single most important position in football, it has also become a team award of late. I am less fine with that. If the most outstanding player happens to be on a bad team, why should that preclude him from winning an award?
In that vein, I am now presenting you with a table of quarterback stats for you to pick your Heisman favorite from. I tried to obfuscate things as much as possible without being overly tricky. Names and teams have been removed, of course. I also removed I-AA competition (thanks cfbstats.com!) to get rid of the most egregious of cupcake games. I also went with touchdown and interception percentage, which are fair (if uncommon) numbers to go with.
I also included how many teams in the current BCS top 25 they have faced and how many top 25 passing defenses they have faced. The top 25 defenses were based on passing efficiency defense and also did not include games against I-AA competition.
Will you favor gaudy stats against weaker competition? Will you give the edge to the guys with the tougher road but more muted stats? Do you like the happy middle instead? How about prioritizing TD percentage versus INT percentage?
| QB | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | Yds/Att | TD Pct | Int Pct | Pass Eff. | T25 Opp | T25 Pass D |
| Quarterback A | 247 | 149 | 60.3 | 2,096 | 8.5 | 9.72% | 5.37% | 157.19 | 3 | 3 |
| Quarterback B | 281 | 205 | 73 | 2,828 | 10.1 | 9.25% | 2.44% | 184.46 | 3 | 1 |
| Quarterback C | 428 | 313 | 73.1 | 3,635 | 8.5 | 7.24% | 2.88% | 164.16 | 3 | 1 |
| Quarterback D | 209 | 133 | 63.6 | 1,807 | 8.6 | 8.13% | 3.76% | 158.33 | 3 | 1 |
| Quarterback E | 193 | 141 | 73.1 | 2,071 | 10.7 | 11.40% | 2.13% | 197.71 | 2 | 1 |
| Quarterback F | 297 | 220 | 74.1 | 2,549 | 8.6 | 10.44% | 2.27% | 177.24 | 2 | 1 |
| Quarterback G | 313 | 221 | 70.6 | 2,695 | 8.6 | 9.27% | 3.17% | 169.03 | 1 | 1 |
| Quarterback H | 342 | 250 | 73.1 | 3,536 | 10.3 | 10.23% | 1.20% | 191.97 | 0 | 1 |
So those are your choices. Who's your Heisman favorite? The identities of the quarterbacks are in a comment below; try not to peek before making your pick.
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The Key
No peeking!
A – Aaron Murray, Georgia
B – Robert Griffin, Baylor
C – Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
D – Jacory Harris, Miami (FL)
E – Russell Wilson, Wisconsin
F – Kellen Moore, Boise State
G – Andrew Luck, Stanford
H – Case Keenum, Houston
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Why didn't you include Clint Moseley?
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by jd is legend on Nov 16, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Chose "E"
Kind of surprised that it’s Wilson, but not terribly. Unfortunately, there was no “none of the above” option. Richardson is my hands down pick since I base it on the best football player in college football. He’s the best I’ve seen.
'58, '03, '07, '11*
*imminent
I would pick Blackmon
but apparently that’s not an option.
My idea is that every specific body strives to become master over all space and to extend its force (--its will to power:) and to thrust back all that resists its extension.
Well, Weeden has a pretty good case based on the numbers above
but he’s not the best player on his team.
My idea is that every specific body strives to become master over all space and to extend its force (--its will to power:) and to thrust back all that resists its extension.
Also, to be fair
I am a jerk and I’m probably unfairly punishing Richardson because he seems to be getting a lot of credit for bettering Ingram’s Heisman season, which means almost nothing since Ingram’s season was really weak.
My idea is that every specific body strives to become master over all space and to extend its force (--its will to power:) and to thrust back all that resists its extension.
other heisman trophy winners
He had the lowest total rushing yards in a season for any heisman trophy winning RB since 1980. I didn’t bother to look at any seasons before that. I’d be willing to bet he was below McFadden and Peterson (the year he didn’t get hurt) and probably some other guys that didn’t win it in recent seasons. It’s not like Ingram sucked, but it wasn’t a particularly impressive year for a heisman winner.
Richardson is the best RB in the country (although I thought Lattimore was real close before he got hurt), and I was really just hating on him for no reason. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m gonna go home and put some water in Nick Saban’s momma’s dish.
My idea is that every specific body strives to become master over all space and to extend its force (--its will to power:) and to thrust back all that resists its extension.
Oh ok I understand
I agree with you that his numbers weren’t great compared to other Heisman winners (and finalists). I think I just read too much into that “really weak” comment.
Hell his numbers were weak compared to the #2 finalist that same year
And yes, yes, spare me “the PAC 10 sucks” posts, I’ve heard them before.
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Nov 17, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
he is def the best i have seen in a while. My vote would go to T. Rich as well
by Patrick Murphy Sux on Nov 16, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Don't worry
I’m probably going to cook up one of these for running backs too.
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Of course
With this year’s Heisman race, it’ll basically be a “can you spot Trent Richardson” contest.
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I would be interested to see a comparison of him and Lattimore
up to the point in the season where Lattimore got hurt.
My idea is that every specific body strives to become master over all space and to extend its force (--its will to power:) and to thrust back all that resists its extension.
Correct
And that’s because only Griffin is used as a real dual threat quarterback. Wilson has the most net rushing yards of any of the rest, and he’s at less than 300 on the season. Even Griffin is only at 411 net rushing yards if you throw out his Stephen F. Austin game.
Including rushing would have made the table too big for the narrow blog layout, and it also would have given away which ones were Griffin and Wilson (defeating the purpose). For the first time in years, QB rushing really isn’t a significant factor in the Heisman race.
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Man....
…I chose Quarterback B and that’s without the rushing yards.
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Just for the record
There is one other “candidate” for whom rushing yards play a huge role in his success, and that’s Collin Klein. Won’t win it and probably won’t even go to New York, but 1,000+ rushing yards and 24 rushing TDS already plus 1,500 passing yards (plus team success, 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio, etc.) ought to have him in the conversation.
Not that he should be in the table, because it’s a dead giveaway. But he’s worth mentioning as a dual-threat QB.
Klein's a favorite of mine, after seeing him in the OK State game
He also passes the ‘take the game on your shoulders’ test. I’m betting if he runs instead of throws on that last play & Kansas State goes on to tie/win, he’d at least be getting some consideration.
Picked C
based upon opposition, Pass completion and QB eff. Not surprised.
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Picked F
Based on TD/pick % balanced with sample size (attempts). That’s what I get for trying to be sabermetric! H scared me away due to opponent quality.
I really liked this
But I also would have liked the rushing yards thrown in. (Ended up picking Griffin anyway.)
Another factor is the ability the player to lead and take the game on his shoulders, which I’m not sure can be represented. (Number of scoring drives in the last few minutes of a game when the team was down/tied?) Still, very interesting.
For what it’s worth, most advanced statisticians have come to the conclusion that “clutch” performance doesn’t exist in any sport. When the game is on the line, people tend to perform at the same rates they do when it’s not overall.
Because “when the game is on the line” tends to be bursts of small sample sizes, it’s easy for someone to perform above or below their typical level and get labeled either a clutch player or a choker. From that point on, confirmation bias largely takes over.
To be fair, there still are people exploring the issue and finding evidence for and against clutch performance. Most of it is against, though.
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E, and that was without even noticing he had the highest passer rating.
I chose to shy away from the dudes with crazy yards based on equally crazy pass attempts, because obviously they play in an air-raid or similarly pass heavy offense which routinely produces gaudy stats.
I also went with E
He has the highest passer rating and the fewest pass attempts of this group which indicates a more balanced offense.
I wish you had included wins vs top 25 and the team's defensive ranking
As I think that would’ve influenced my decision making.
I chose C … Weeeden is not bad, just I’d have hard time giving it to him over Trent since he is 28 and all.
Perfect (pur-fec-t): the only person on earth, besides Tim Tebow, in the 21st century to be without fault is gatorhippy.
Assigning wins to quarterbacks is not something I’m inclined to do, given that they don’t play defense and all. And as far as looking at team success in that way, the whole point was to make this no longer about team wins but individual performance.
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If that's the case...
then what is the argument against giving it to Air Raid-type guys if they keep their Ints down and their Comp and TD percentages up?
You tell me. I wouldn’t have a problem with an Air Raid quarterback winning the Heisman.
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Prevailing thought pattern...
seems to be that those guys are system guys that don’t necessarily deserve such an award because any decent qb in that system could put up similar numbers. If that is the line of thinking than couldn’t it be said that any decent running back could put up big numbers behind an Alabama/LSU/Wisconsin O-Line?
That Air Raid type guys, even the Texas Tech ones from the Leach years that play AQ schedules, don’t get serious consideration seems to indicate a bias among voters.
I guess
I’d like an average D-rank as well as top 25 d.
And as far as team success goes, to me the QB position is all about wins and losses. I mean Dan Marino was good and all, but if I ever had to draft a QB (fantasy style, he is not even in my top 8) because I want someone who is going to win, not saying I’d pick Dilfer over Marino, but you get the point.
Running backs are where team success should not be taken into account. They don’t handle the ball or situational awareness as much as a QB.
Perfect (pur-fec-t): the only person on earth, besides Tim Tebow, in the 21st century to be without fault is gatorhippy.
So, without realizing it, I was choosing between Griffin, Weeden, and Wilson
and I chose Wilson.
I can’t complain too much about that.
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by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 16, 2011 3:45 PM EST reply actions
Of Late?
I wouldn’t say that it has only become a team award “of late.” If memory serves, only one player has ever won the award while on a team with a losing record. Of course that player played for Notre Dame in the 1950s. Doc Blanchard was a great player, but the fact that Army dominated as a team might have been more critical than the 718 yards he rushed for the year he won the Heisman. Does John Cappelletti win that award if he isn’t playing for an undefeated Penn State squad? And so on and so on. How you play is pretty big, but who you play for has always been a major factor.
Notice that Andrew Luck is recieving the least amount of votes
Which only confirms what I have been saying: the guy is overrated. Still an incredible QB, but he shouldn’t have ever been considered the runaway favorite for the Heisman like the media wanted to peg him.
I think the problem is that folks are letting his NFL draft grade bleed into their review of his play on the college level. A better pro QB prospect than Kellen Moore, but a better college QB performer than Kellen Moore? Two different things. Then again, in Luck’s defense for that comparison, competition level is different, and it doesn’t help that Luck is playing BCS AQ defenses without much in the way of impressive skill talent surrounding him.
As much as that
Most people are ignoring just how bad the schedule he’s played is. Both the top 25 and top 25 pass defense team he’s faced is Oregon, and he had an overall dreadful game with all the turnovers.
His numbers are good, but they’re not the eye-popping kind you expect from a Heisman candidate when you strip out everything else. Part of that is the offense he plays in, and part of it is that he gets pulled in blowouts.
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Yeah, but the evaluation of him
…is more than just statistics, right? He essentially runs the Stanford offense. Then you factor in (up until the Duck’s game) the plays he’s made with his arm, hands and feet. He’s a pretty damn good player. I wouldn’t have a problem with him winning the Heisman if it wasn’t for his complete implosion against the Ducks. You have to step up in the big game and he couldn’t get past that his team is pretty overrated.
I think Weeden is more “iffy” even though he’s got the gaudy stats. We’ve seen this movie before with quarterbacks from Indian Territory carving up midwestern defenses. Who knows? Maybe the ’pokes are for real and will beat OU.
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by Gen. Stoopnagle on Nov 17, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
If you’re going to include all that about Luck, then consider that Weeden helped teach Oklahoma State’s new OC the Holgorsen offense over the offseason. That’s got to count for something.
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There's always the tension between "best player" and "most productive"
If you award it based on “best player,” it’s bound to be inherently subjective. If you award it based on “most productive,” it’s impossible to tease out how much of the production was a result of the player himself and how much was due to the system and the talent of the players around him (Ron Dayne).
I tend to fall on the “best player” end of the spectrum. I think Larry Fitzgerald, Ndawhatever Suh, and Derrick Johnson should have won Heismans. Instead we get Jason White.
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by 4.0 Point Stance on Nov 17, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Wow.
I went with Kellen Moore just by the numbers. I have been against him winning it. I’m still gonna stick with RG3 though, Easily the most deserving person.
Moore's numbers are obviously great, and he's a great QB
but that chart doesn’t really reflect strength of schedule as well as I’d like. Just judging by top 25 defenses faced is only a part of the picture; there’s a huge difference between the 26th ranked defense and the 112th ranked defense.
Don't Panic.
by 4.0 Point Stance on Nov 17, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
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